LOW - 吕宋岛以东98W - 16.7N 125.7E - 数值支持发展，未来路径扑朔迷离 - JMA:LPA

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GEFS 12Z系集，各成员继续预报短期内将逐渐西行，但此后分歧仍然较大

ygsj24

ABPW10 PGTW 300130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/300130ZJUN2025-300600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.2N
134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED,
IF FAIRLY WEAK, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION IN THE RAIN BANDS ALONG THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY. A 292123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST
WEST OF THE LLCC AND A TUTT-CELL POSITIONED FURTHER WEST, NEAR LUZON.
SSTS ARE VERY WARM (30-31C) AND OHC IS HIGH.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A PRE-EXISTING, BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. ONCE THE MERGER OCCURS,
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP, BEYOND 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
ALSO IN AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE CIRCULATION TRACKING WEST, THEN MERGING
WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION BEFORE TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
STEADILY CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING, BEYOND THE 48 HOUR POINT.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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GFS 18Z预报先西行后北上，最终登陆日本，巅峰约927百帕

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ECMWF 18Z系集

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今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

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GFS 00Z预报先西行后转为东北移动，掠过日本以东近海，巅峰约939百帕

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GEFS 00Z系集，各成员继续预报短期内将逐渐西行，但此后分歧仍然较大

红豆棒冰冰

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/300600ZJUN2025-010600ZJUL2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
15.2N 134.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 132.6E, APPROXIMATELY 677 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
BUILDING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A RECENT
300028Z ASCAT-C PASS PORTRAYS THE SUSPECTED AREA TO BE A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF
10-15 KNOTS, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 30-31 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
INDICATE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Asdfghjtyuinh

这是有机会出双台了么？

红豆棒冰冰

Asdfghjtyuinh 发表于 2025-6-30 14:14
这是有机会出双台了么？

是的，98W和90W大概率都会发展成台