墨西哥西南一级飓风“弗洛茜”(06E.Flossie) - 沿岸西北行 - NHC:75KT

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290834
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

The convection associated with the area of low pressure located
south of southern Mexico has become much better organized over the
past 12 hours.  Additionally, a 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a
well-defined, closed low-level circulation with maximum winds around
25 kt.  The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB are T-2.5 and T-2.0, respectively.  The
disturbance is upgraded to a tropical depression based on the
development of organized convection and a well-defined center.

The aforementioned ASCAT pass shows that Tropical Depression Six-E
has a large RMW.  However, the cyclone is located within a favorable
environment with warm SSTs, a moist mid-level troposphere and low to
moderate vertical wind shear.  The depression is forecast to remain
in these favorable conditions for another 3 to 4 days as it
parallels the coast of Mexico.  Due to the large RMW, only slow
strengthening is forecast for the first 24 h.  The system is
expected to strengthen more quickly once it establishes a stronger
convective core, and rapid intensification appears likely to occur
by Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the
intensity guidance, especially at 60-72 h, and calls for the
system to become a significant hurricane.  By 96 h, the cyclone
should reach cooler water, and rapid weakening is likely in 4 to 5
days, with the system likely becoming a remnant low around day 5.

The current motion of the depression is estimated to be westward, or
270/10 kt.   The cyclone is forecast to generally move in a
direction between west-northwest and northwest for the next few
days, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and the model
guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario.  The NHC
forecast is down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the
TVCE consensus.  

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A
track even a little to the right of the official forecast would
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 13.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Hagen

ygsj24

089
WTPZ31 KNHC 291139
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
600 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 99.7W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Depression Six-E.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 99.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion should begin later today
and continue through the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast today, followed by
steady to rapid strengthening thereafter, and the system is expected
to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Six-E is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Six-E, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep6.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Six-E will begin
increasing along the coast of southwestern Mexico Monday and
continue into mid-week. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析升至T2.5

TXPZ28 KNES 291219
TCSENP
A.  06E (NONAME)
B.  29/1200Z
C.  13.3N
D.  99.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/ATMS
H.  REMARKS...06E CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CONVECTION WRAPS OVER .5 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF
2.5. MET = 1.5 AND PT = 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    29/0749Z 13.2N 99.3W ATMS
...KIBLER

红豆棒冰冰

NRL显示已命名为FLOSSIE

06E FLOSSIE 250629 1200 13.2N 99.7W EPAC 35 1005

pocketbox

WTPZ41 KNHC 291441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
900 AM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

Convection has continued to become better organized this morning,
with curved banding to the north of the low-level center. Recent
infrared satellite imagery depicts that convection is bursting near
the low-level center with cold cloud tops near -80C. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T2.5, from both TAFB and
SAB. Using these estimates and the recent satellite trends, the
intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the sixth
named system in the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Flossie.

Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening
with warm SSTs near 30C, moist mid-levels and low to moderate wind
shear. As the system continues to become better organized, the
latest NHC forecast now depicts steady strengthening, with the storm
becoming a hurricane in about 36 h. While not explicitly forecast,
there are some above normal SHIPS rapid intensification (RI)
probabilities and there is potential for RI, which will have to be
monitored in subsequent forecasts. The NHC intensity forecast
remains near the higher end of the guidance envelope near the latest
HCCA corrected consensus aids.

The current motion is estimated to be westward around 280/8 kt,
although as the inner core continues to develop there could be some
short-term track adjustments. The storm is forecast to begin to move
west-northwestward later today then northwestward around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is
nudged slightly to the right, in between the simple consensus HCCA
corrected consensus.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima and Jalisco through early next week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and
tropical storm warnings could be required later today or tonight for
a portion of the coast of southern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT  29/1500Z 13.4N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

653
WTPZ31 KNHC 291739
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
1200 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLOSSIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 100.1W
ABOUT 225 MI...370 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early next week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T2.5

TXPZ28 KNES 291821
TCSENP
A.  06E (FLOSSIE)
B.  29/1800Z
C.  13.3N
D.  100.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/2.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...
5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.5. THE PT AGREES WHILE
THE MET IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    29/1305Z 13.2N 99.6W SSMIS
...TURK

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 292037
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Flossie Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
300 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

Earlier SSMIS microwave data and satellite imagery depicted Flossie
becoming better organized with curved banding features. However,
recent imagery shows that banding has become a little more broken
since the previous advisory, as Flossie is still trying to organize
and consolidate. A 1600 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass shows that
the low-level center has become better defined, however was slightly
south of the previously estimated position, and satellite-derived
winds were around 31 kt. Using the scatterometer data and the latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates T2.5, from both TAFB and SAB,
the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

Flossie is located within a favorable environment for strengthening
with warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful moisture and low to
moderate wind shear. As the system becomes better organized, steady
strengthening is forecast. Rapid intensification indices remain
elevated in latest SHIPS guidance, however RI is not explicitly
forecast at this time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous, closest to the hurricane regional aids, but lies
slightly below the HCCA corrected consensus.

The current motion is estimated to be westward-northwestward around
295/7 kt. The storm is forecast moving west-northwestward  with a
turn towards the northwest anticipated tomorrow around the western
periphery of a subtropical ridge. The latest track forecast is near
the previous, and lies between the simple and HCCA corrected
consensus aids.

Residents of Mexico should stay updated on the latest forecast.  A
track even a little more to the right of the official forecast could
bring more significant impacts to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Flossie may bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán,
Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are possible, particularly in areas of steep
terrain.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Mexico, and
tropical storm warnings could be required later tonight for a
portion of the coast of southern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

ygsj24

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292342
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062025
600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025

...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 100.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Flossie.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Flossie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header
WTPZ41 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches,
across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This
rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within
the watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Bucci