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发表于 2025-6-15 16:47
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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-6-15 18:00 编辑
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 150846
TCDEP4
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025
200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in
organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65
knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from
45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed
numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots.
Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A
turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as
Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the
southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is
then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much
cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by
Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the
previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids.
Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level
air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system.
More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves
over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level
environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous
advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
guidance.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds
will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch
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楼主: ygsj24
发表于 2025-6-15 05:37
发表于 2025-6-15 09:37
