墨西哥以南一级飓风“芭芭拉”(02E.Barbara) - 西北行进，东太新风季首飓 - NHC:65KT

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2025-6-9 21:39
SSD 12Z分析降至T3.0/4.0，NRL显示升至65KT

SSD稍早前修改12Z分析，维持T4.0/4.0

TXPZ24 KNES 091644
TCSENP
CCA
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  09/1200Z
C.  17.1N
D.  106.0W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR DT, 24-HOUR CHANGE, MET, PT, AND FT. LLCC
EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT LLCC LOCATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T4.0

TXPZ24 KNES 091838
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  09/1800Z
C.  17.9N
D.  107.0W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET AND PT ARE
BOTH EQUAL TO 4.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO THE BANDING FEATURE
NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

ygsj24

394
WTPZ42 KNHC 092032
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Since the last advisory Barbara has become a little less organized.
Latest GOES satellite imagery depicts the system starting to ingest
some drier air which has caused fragmented banding. However, a
central dense overcast has remained over the tiny inner core. The
satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly from the
previous advisory ranging from 50 to 65 kt. Using these estimates,
the intensity is held at 65 kt, although this may be generous.

A mid-level ridge located over Mexico should continue to steer the
system northwestward over the next couple of days. As Barbara begins
to weaken into a shallow vortex and slow down, it will be steered by
the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one, and close to the simple and corrected consensus.

Barbara likely has peaked as a short-lived hurricane. The
environmental conditions will becoming increasingly hostile along
the forecast track with the storm crossing into cooler SSTs and into
a drier, more stable air mass. This will cause the system to
steadily weaken, lose convective organization, and become post
tropical by 36 h. The latest NHC forecast shows the system opening
into a trough by 60 h and dissipating.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 18.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 19.2N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 20.5N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 21.4N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  11/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Mora/Kelly

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析降至T3.0/4.0

TXPZ24 KNES 100027
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  10/0000Z
C.  18.3N
D.  107.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T3.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 3.0 BASED
ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 3.0. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

ygsj24

608
WTPZ42 KNHC 100232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has been gradually decreasing in organization since earlier
today.  Deep convection is rather fragmented with limited banding
features.  Although thunderstorm activity could temporarily
increase tonight after the diurnal minimum, overall the system
appears to be on a weakening trend.  All of the objective intensity
estimates are now below hurricane strength.  A blend of subjective
Dvorak T- and C.I. numbers from TAFB gives about a 60-kt intensity
estimate, which is used for this advisory.

The cyclone continues on a northwestward track with a motion of
around 310/10 kt.  A weak mid-level ridge to the north of Barbara
should maintain this northwestward motion for a while, albeit with
some decrease in forward speed.  In 36-48 hours, the system should
become a remnant low and turn westward following the shallow-layer
flow.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of the
divergent track guidance and a little to the left of the previous
NHC track.  This is between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The storm is crossing a gradient of sea surface temperatures and
headed for cooler waters and a drier, more stable environment.  
Therefore continued weakening is likely, and Barbara is expected to
become a remnant low in 36 hours.  The official forecast
is below the LGEM guidance but above the dynamical models, which
suggest that the system will dissipate sooner than indicated here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 18.7N 107.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 20.7N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 21.2N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/0000Z 21.3N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王皘  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 06 月 10 日 10 时
“芭芭拉”向西北方向移动

时        间:    10日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经107.5度, 北纬18.4度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    993百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角东南方向约560公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“芭芭拉”强度由9级逐渐增强为11级

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月10日09时30分）

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午SAR扫到58kt

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析降至T2.5/3.5

TXPZ24 KNES 100620
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  10/0600Z
C.  18.6N
D.  107.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET=3.0. PT=2.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT
WAS MADE TO THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LEE

ygsj24

283
WTPZ42 KNHC 100847
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the
past 12 hours or so.  The latest current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt
range.  Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary
satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 50 kt.

Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than
before, or 310/7 kt.  Barbara is forecast to continue moving
generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to
its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest.  Only
very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track
forecast, which lies near the various consensus models.

The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue
moving over progressively colder water over the next day.  The cold
water will cause Barbara to continue weakening.  The NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous
official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the
cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with
dissipation in 36 hours.  The NHC forecast follows the scenario
depicted by those models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs