墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析维持T3.5

TXPZ25 KNES 100556
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  10/0530Z
C.  15.2N
D.  114.6W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...8/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=3.5. MET=3.0. PT=3.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE PT SINCE BANDING FEATURE IS NOT CLEAR-CUT AND AN ADJUSTMENT
WAS MADE TO THE MET.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    10/0143Z 15.0N 114.4W SSMIS
...LEE

ygsj24

283
WTPZ42 KNHC 100847
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Barbara has lost a significant portion of its convection over the
past 12 hours or so.  The latest current intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB are still in the 55-65 kt range, but the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the 45-55 kt
range.  Based on the degraded convective appearance on geostationary
satellite imagery and the latest intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is set to 50 kt.

Barbara has been moving toward the northwest a little slower than
before, or 310/7 kt.  Barbara is forecast to continue moving
generally toward the northwest as it is steered by weak ridging to
its north and Tropical Storm Cosme, located to its southwest.  Only
very minor adjustments have been made to the previous NHC track
forecast, which lies near the various consensus models.

The storm already has crossed the 26C isotherm and will continue
moving over progressively colder water over the next day.  The cold
water will cause Barbara to continue weakening.  The NHC intensity
forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous
official forecast, and is near the latest intensity model consensus.
The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite products both show the
cyclone losing its convection entirely by about 24 hours, with
dissipation in 36 hours.  The NHC forecast follows the scenario
depicted by those models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 19.1N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 20.1N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 100850
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

The convective appearance of Cosme has changed little since the
previous advisory.  The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 54-59 kt.  The initial
intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of
the intensity estimates.

Cosme continues to move very slowly toward the northwest, with
motion estimated at 300/4 kt. A slow motion, perhaps more toward
the north, should continue for at least the next 12 h since the
overall steering currents are weak, due to Barbara's current
position in relation to Cosme.  However, as Barbara weakens, Cosme
will accelerate north-northeastward in response to ridging located
to the northwest of the cyclone. Very little change has been made
to the NHC track forecast, and the latest forecast is near the
various consensus models.

Cosme is forecast to remain in favorable enough conditions for the
next 24 h such that the cyclone might be able to maintain its
intensity or only weaken very slowly.  However, after that time, as
Cosme gains latitude, it will encounter cooler water and drier air.
Cosme is forecast to lose its convection and become post-tropical on
Wednesday, in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite
imagery products.  The post-tropical low is then forecast to
gradually weaken and dissipate by 72 h.  The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one, and is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0900Z 15.3N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 17.4N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  12/0600Z 18.7N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Gibbs

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王皘  签发：吕心艳  2025 年 06 月 10 日 18 时
“科斯梅”强度逐渐减弱

时        间:    10日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置:    西经114.5度, 北纬15.2度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:   11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    992百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约985公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“科斯梅”强度由9级逐渐增强为11级

预报结论:    “科斯梅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏北转东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月10日15时30分）

红豆棒冰冰

今天中午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T3.0/3.5

TXPZ25 KNES 101224
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  10/1200Z
C.  15.5N
D.  115.2W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T3.0/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 3.5 BASED ON
A STEADY TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON THE PT SINCE THE BANDING FEATURE WAS NOT CLEAR CUT AND A PATTERN
ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...COVERDALE

yhh

WTPZ43 KNHC 101434
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025

Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep
convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation.  
Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun
to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity
of 55 kt.  The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate
during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be
ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the
next day or two.  In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the
GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that
Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC
forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24
hours.  After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the
remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected
by Friday.

Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has
slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward
the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt.  While the interaction with
Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and
north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two.  The
new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction,
and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60
hours, following the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H  12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg/Gibbs

ygsj24

193
WTPZ43 KNHC 102034
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus,
it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the
remaining deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates have
continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45
kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt.  The advisory
intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers.  An
earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern
quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be
stronger winds, was not sampled.

ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little
west of where it was placed this morning.  Still, the storm has
turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt.  
Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and
speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the
north-northwest on Thursday.  This track will take Cosme over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable
environment.  Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear,
these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and
ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose
its deep convection overnight.  As a result, the NHC official
forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with
dissipation now expected by 60 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间SAR扫到72kt

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描