斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 070144 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.1S 174.8E AT 070000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC. EYE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMMAGERY. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE, LG SURROUNDING YIELDING
DT=5.0, MET 5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.7S 175.7E MOV SSE AT 16KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 21.4S 176.8E MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 23.1S 177.8E MOV SE AT 18KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 24.3S 178.4E MOV SSE AT 13KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070800UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am April 7	3	18.1S	174.8E	95
+6hr	6 am April 7	3	18.8S	175.2E	120
+12hr	12 pm April 7	3	19.7S	175.7E	150
+18hr	6 pm April 7	3	20.5S	176.2E	175
+24hr	12 am April 8	3	21.4S	176.8E	205
+36hr	12 pm April 8	3	23.1S	177.8E	265
+48hr	12 am April 9	3	24.3S	178.4E	325
+60hr	12 pm April 9	2	25.2S	178.7E	410
+72hr	12 am April 10	1	26.3S	178.7E	500

ygsj24

WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 18.1S 174.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 174.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 20.0S 175.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 22.0S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 24.0S 178.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 25.6S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.7S 179.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 30.7S 177.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 35.5S 176.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 175.1E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 070300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING
   
4. NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 18.1S 174.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 205 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY
    
18. BETTER DEFINED AND WARMER EYE THAN SIX HOURS AGO. THE EYEWALL AND
    
19. CENTRAL CONVECTIVE DISK REMAIN RAGGED, WITH AN EARLIER 061935Z
    
20. SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN INCOMPLETE EYEWALL OPEN
    
21. TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO 25-30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
    
22. IN THE 850-400 MB LAYER FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN PERIODIC
    
23. EROSION OF INNER CORE CONVECTION ON THE LEFT-OF-SHEAR SIDE (WEST
    
24. AND NORTH). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED TO 100 KT BASED ON A
    
25. SLIGHT INCREASE IN OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
    
26. AND AN EARLIER 061803Z RCM-2 SAR PASS. THE GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD ON
    
27. THE EASTERN SIDE APPEARS TO ENCOMPASS WESTERN FIJI BASED ON LOCAL
    
28. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 54 KTS AT NADI
    
29. INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN RECENT HOURS.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
37.    PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 062030Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 89 KTS AT 062030Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 87 KTS AT 062114Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 95 KTS AT 062300Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
45.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) CONTINUES TO
    
59. TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
60. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS
    
61. STRAIGHT FORWARD, WITH NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
    
62. VAIANU WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE
    
63. TURNING SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
    
64. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN A
    
65. STEADY SPEED OF ADVANCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A
    
66. SPLIT-JET PATTERN, IN WHICH A SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE POLAR
    
67. JET WILL DELAY ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE
    
68. CYCLONE WILL, HOWEVER, MOVE POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AFTER
    
69. 72 HOURS, AND ITS SUPERPOSITION BENEATH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
    
70. COUPLED WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IS EXPECTED TO
    
71. INITIATE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND 96 HOURS, COMPLETING BY 120
    
72. HOURS AS 31P APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO
    
73. REMAINS STRAIGHT FORWARD. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY
    
74. FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHORT-TERM WITH MODERATE
    
75. MID-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT AND ALREADY AFFECTING THE STORM'S INNER
    
76. CORE STRUCTURE. IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE
    
77. SIGNIFICANTLY, CONCURRENT WITH A DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    
78. TO AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AFTER
    
79. ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WEAKENING IS UNLIKELY TO BE RAPID AS THE
    
80. CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
    
81. ALLOWING A LARGE, SYMMETRIC VORTEX TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS AS
    
82. IT METHODICALLY TRACKS POLEWARD OVER GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS.
    
83. NUMERICAL MODELS EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO RETAIN SURFACE WINDS OF
    
84. 50 KT OR HIGHER WELL INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL PHASE NORTH OF NEW
    
85. ZEALAND.
    
86. 
    
87. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
    
88. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WITH MODEL
    
89. SPREAD DECREASING RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE JTWC
    
90. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
    
91. PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
97.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
    
98. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 07 日 10 时
“迈拉”移速缓慢

时  间: 7日08时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬10.0度，东经156.3度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，41米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 962百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1375公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由12级加强为13级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度维持。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日08时00分）

“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 7日08时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬18.1度，东经174.8度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 955百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西方向约385公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由10级加强为14级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度维持。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日08时00分）

ygsj24

WTPS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 008   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 175.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 175.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 21.3S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.2S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 25.0S 178.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 26.4S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.6S 178.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 32.0S 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 38.3S 177.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 175.6E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 954 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 070900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
   
4. 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 175.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 188 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 40 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
    
19. INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL (NER) RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST.
    
20. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED NEARLY COMPLETELY,
    
21. WHILE STRONG, MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR CAN BE OBSERVED, LIMITING THE
    
22. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
23. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS DRY AIR ENTERING THE CORE OF
    
24. THE VORTEX, ORIGINATING FROM THE AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
    
25. BALANCING THOSE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE WARM (29-29 C) SEA SURFACE
    
26. TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
27. IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED VISIBLE
    
28. SATELLITE LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 070455Z F17 SSMIS MICROWAVE
    
29. IMAGE SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
30. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LISTED
    
31. BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
    
36. EAST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    NFFN: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 070530Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 97 KTS AT 070530Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 106 KTS AT 070457Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 99 KTS AT 070530Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
49.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
    
64. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER CENTERED TO THE EAST THROUGH TAU 48.
    
65. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
    
66. AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A
    
67. DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL STEER TC VAIANU SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
68. UNTIL THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE AROUND TAU 96.
    
69. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING, THE
    
70. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE. STT IS
    
71. EXPECTED TO CONCLUDE NEAR TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NEW
    
72. ZEALAND AND POSITIONS ITSELF UNDERNEATH THE JET MAXIMUM. IN REGARD
    
73. TO INTENSITY, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY AND CONSISTENT
    
74. WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
    
75. INCREASE, REACHING 40-45 KTS, AROUND TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE
    
76. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS THE
    
77. VWS BACKS OFF NEAR TAU 48, TC 31P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A SLOWER
    
78. RATE, AND CONSIDERING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, THE
    
79. CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AROUND 50-55 KTS WELL
    
80. INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL PHASE NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
83. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE JTWC FORECAST IS
    
84. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY, THE MEMBERS OF THE
    
85. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE WEAKENING PATTERN. THE MAXIMUM
    
86. WIND SPEED GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO 20 KTS
    
87. AFTER TAU 48, LOWERING THE LONG TERM INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
    
88. OVERALL, BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
89. GUIDANCE OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
94.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
96. NNNN

复制代码

桑美和伊欧凯

路径单一、爆发速度快，但后期要考虑对新西兰北岛的影响

pocketbox

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 070830 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 955HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 175.4E AT 070600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
                       
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
                       
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED PATTERN WITH LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG, YIELDING
DT=4.5, MET 5.0 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 20.8S 176.6E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 22.8S 177.8E MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 24.5S 178.7E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 25.7S 179.0E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071400UTC

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 07 日 18 时
“迈拉”回旋少动

时  间: 7日14时(北京时，下同)

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.9度，东经156.4度

强度等级: 四级强热带气旋

最大风力: 15级，46米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 951百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1380公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由12级加强为15级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将回旋少动，强度维持或还将略有加强 。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日14时00分）

“韦亚努”向东南方向移动

时  间: 7日14时

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬18.9度，东经175.4度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 14级，43米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压: 955百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西偏南方向约324公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“韦亚努”由11级加强为14级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月7日14时00分）

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 071330 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 956HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
19.9S 176.4E AT 071200 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
                       
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SYSTEM
LIES IN A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR GRADUALLY
INCREASING FURTHER SOUTH. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH LG EYE AND LG SURROUND, YIELDING
DT=4.5, MET 5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T4.5/5.O/W0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER OPEN WATERS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 22.0S 177.7E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 23.9S 178.7E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 25.4S 179.2E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 26.4S 179.4E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071930UTC

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WTPS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 009   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 20.0S 175.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 175.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 22.1S 177.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 24.2S 178.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 25.5S 178.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 26.5S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 29.0S 178.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 33.0S 176.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 41.2S 177.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 176.2E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 071500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
   
4. 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.0S 175.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 182 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
    
19. SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
    
20. THE NORTHEAST. THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME FULLY OBSCURED AND CLOUD-
    
21. FILLED. WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS MARGINALLY SUBSIDED
    
22. OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BUT THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
    
23. PREVALENT RESULTING IN AN OVERALL MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
    
24. OFFSETTING THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE FAVORABLE AND WARM
    
25. (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND A WELL-DEFINED
    
26. POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
27. HIGH CONFIDENCE UTILIZING THE ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP,
    
28. COMBINED WITH THE EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 070930Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS.
    
29. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KTS IS ALSO ESTIMATED WITH HIGH
    
30. CERTAINTY, BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
    
31. AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 070701Z RCM-3 SAR PASS
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
    
36. NORTHEAST
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
41.    PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    NFFN: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 97 KTS AT 071140Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 071140Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 071240Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
48. UNFAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
61. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P IS PROJECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
    
64. SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
    
65. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THROUGH TAU 48. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE CYCLONE
    
66. WILL MIGRATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS AND WILL ENTER A
    
67. REGION OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. A DEEP-LAYER
    
68. ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL THEN INDUCE A BRIEF SOUTHWESTWARD
    
69. TURN, A TRAJECTORY EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITS
    
70. THE RIDGE AXIS NEAR TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, THE ONSET OF SUBTROPICAL
    
71. TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER
    
72. WATERS (BELOW 26 C). THIS TRANSFORMATION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE
    
73. JUST PRIOR TO TAU 120, AS THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE NORTH
    
74. ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND, AND BECOMES POSITIONED UNDERNEATH THE JET
    
75. MAXIMUM. REGARDING INTENSITY, A CONSISTENT DECAY IS FORECAST AS
    
76. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY,
    
77. REACHING 40-45 KTS AS EARLY AS TAU 24 AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT
    
78. LEAST TAU 48.  AS THE SHEAR INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER
    
79. TAU 48, THE RATE OF WEAKENING SHOULD DECREASE, AND THE SYSTEMS
    
80. INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP IT
    
81. SUSTAIN AN INTENSITY NEAR 45-55 KTS DEEP INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL
    
82. PHASE.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: A HIGH DEGREE OF CONSENSUS EXISTS AMONG THE
    
85. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST,
    
86. LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
    
87. SIMILARLY, THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
    
88. CONCERNING THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND. THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
    
89. INCREASES MARGINALLY TO 20 KTS BEYOND TAU 48, THEREBY REDUCING
    
90. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST. OVERALL, BOTH THE
    
91. OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS
    
92. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
97.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
98.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
99. NNNN

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ygsj24

WTPS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 010   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 177.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 177.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 23.2S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 25.1S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 26.0S 179.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 27.2S 179.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 30.1S 178.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 34.9S 176.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 177.3E.
07APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P
(MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 072100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
   
4. 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.1S 177.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 197 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 35 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. STORM (TC) 31P WITH A FILLED EYE AND DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN
    
19. FLANK OF THE STORM, SLIGHTLY ENTRAINING INTO THE CORE. A 071610Z
    
20. SSMIS REVEALS THE MICROWAVE EYE IS BROAD WITH SLIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD
    
21. TILT WITH HEIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
    
22. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL (27-28C) SEA
    
23. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH (25-30 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
    
24. SHEAR, AND A DRY SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW
    
25. ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    
26. THE AFOREMENTIONED 071610Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
    
27. INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
28. CIMSS AUTOMATED INTENSITY AIDS AND AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
    
29. ESTIMATES, SUPPORTED BY THE STORM'S WORSENING APPEARANCE ON
    
30. ANIMATED EIR.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
    
35. THE NORTHEAST
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    PHFO: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 071930Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 87 KTS AT 071930Z
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 92 KTS AT 071609Z
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 83 KTS AT 071930Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
47. UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
49.    SST: 25-30 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
60. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P (VAIANU) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
    
63. TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE IT REMAINS UNDER
    
64. THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
    
65. DEVELOP A WEAK EXTENSION, INDUCING A BRIEF DECELERATION IN VAIANU'S
    
66. TRANSLATION SPEED BETWEEN TAUS 24-36 AS IT SETTLES INTO A COL. THE
    
67. EXTENSION IS FORECAST TO BUILD AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING 31P TO
    
68. ACCELERATE AND CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
69. FORECAST PERIOD. 31P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION
    
70. AROUND TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET,
    
71. ENTRAIN DRY AIR, AND SUB-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SUBTROPICAL
    
72. TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE NO LATER THAN TAU 96.
    
73. REGARDING INTENSITY, 31P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUOUSLY WEAKEN FOR THE
    
74. DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IS TRACKS INTO THE INCREASINGLY
    
75. HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT TO ITS SOUTH.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
    
78. AGREEMENT THAT 31P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36-48 WITH
    
79. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLOW TRANSLATION SPEEDS BETWEEN TAU 24-48,
    
80. FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
    
81. FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
82. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE
    
83. INTENSITY AIDS ARE ALSO IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH ALL AVAILABLE
    
84. MODELS DEPICTING A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 36 AND A
    
85. GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM TAU 36 THROUGH TAU 96. THE JTWC
    
86. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 0-72
    
87. AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM TAU 72-96, WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
    
88. THE STORM'S INTENSITY WHILE IT UNDERGOES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
92.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
94.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
95. NNNN

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