帕劳西北热带低压02W - 数值支持发展，西行趋向菲律宾 - JMA:GW

Ragasa

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NR. 1
Tropical Depression
Issued at 5:00 PM, 03 February 2026
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

• Location of Center (4:00 PM)
The center of Tropical Depression was estimated based on all available data at 1,075 km East of Northeastern Mindanao (OUTSIDE PAR) (10.0°N, 135.3°E).

• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa.

• Present Movement
Northwestward slowly

• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong winds extend outwards up to 140 km from the center

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST

Date and Time	Center Position			Intensity		Movement dir.  and    speed (km/h)
	Lat. (°N)	Lon. (°E)	Location	MSW    (km/h)	Cat.
12-Hour Forecast 2:00 AM 04 February 2026	9.3	133.0	825 km East  of Northeastern Mindanao	55	TD	WSW 20
24-Hour Forecast 2:00 PM 04 February 2026	8.6	130.8	490 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao  del Sur	55	TD	WSW 20
36-Hour Forecast 2:00 AM 05 February 2026	8.5	128.9	280 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao  del Sur	65	TS	W 15
48-Hour Forecast 2:00 PM 05 February 2026	8.7	126.9	70 km East Northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao  del Sur	65	TS	W 20
60-Hour Forecast 2:00 AM 06 February 2026	9.2	125.1	Over the coastal  waters of Magsaysay, Misamis Oriental	65	TS	WNW 15
72-Hour Forecast 2:00 PM 06 February 2026	9.7	123.3	Over the coastal waters  of Malabuyoc, Cebu	65	TS	WNW 15
96-Hour Forecast 2:00 PM 07 February 2026	10.8	121.8	Over the coastal waters of San  Jose de Buenavista, Antique	55	TD	NW 10
120-Hour Forecast 2:00 PM 08 February 2026	11.2	120.8	Over the coastal waters  of Cuyo Islands, Palawan	-	LOW	WNW Slowly

GENERAL OUTLOOK FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD
• The tropical depression (TD) is forecast to move generally west southwestward until it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight or tomorrow (04 February) early morning. Once inside the PAR, the TD will be given a local name BASYANG.
• Inside PAR, BASYANG will turn westward while over the Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, the center of BASYANG may make landfall in Caraga by Thursday (05 February) afternoon or evening. It is expected to cross Visayas and Palawan from Friday (06 February) to Sunday (08 February).
• BASYANG will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach tropical storm category by tomorrow evening or Thursday early morning. Further intensification prior to its landfall is not ruled out. Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 2.
• The tropical depression outside PAR is less likely to directly affect weather conditions within the next 24 hours. By tomorrow, Wind Signal No. 1 may be hoisted and a Gale Warning may be raised over Eastern Visayas and Caraga. The onset of heavy rains is likely by Thursday over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, and Davao Region.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to continue monitoring for updates related to this tropical cyclone.
Unless there is an intermediate issuance, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA

红豆棒冰冰

JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h、+48h均维持TD逐渐西行

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及FNV3 00Z系集，部分成员继续支持发展

红豆棒冰冰

JMA 06Z维持TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 135E WNW 10 KT.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析升至T1.5，有望升格

TPPN10 PGTW 030905
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF PALAU)
B. 03/0830Z
C. 9.83N
D. 134.78E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.5.
DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN

Enceladus

昨晚在南侧发展出准闭合环流比较关键，意味着系统在按照数值当中比较支持发展的一派方向走。

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-2-3 14:34
SSD 06Z分析T1.5，JTWC分析T1.0

SSD稍早前修改06Z分析

TXPQ28 KNES 031019
TCSWNP
CCB
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B.  03/0530Z
C.  11.2N
D.  135.6E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2
H.  REMARKS...COR 2 FOR CENTER FIX BASED ON 0426Z AMSR2 PASS. 3/10
BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. POLEWARD UPR-LVL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
WELL-DEFINED. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    03/0426Z 11.0N 135.8E AMSR2
...KONON

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z继续预报西行趋向菲律宾，巅峰约993百帕

红豆棒冰冰

SSD及JTWC 12Z分析均维持T1.5

TXPQ28 KNES 031223
TCSWNP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)
B.  03/1130Z
C.  11.3N
D.  135.0E
E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LLCC AND FLARING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...ZENG

TPPN10 PGTW 031231
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (N OF PALAU)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 10.08N
D. 135.23E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN
75NM OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT AGREE. DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   CANTU

红豆棒冰冰

最近数小时94W涡度持续加深，目前已经泛白