留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-30 15:00

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-30 16:20 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 300812 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 42.7 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/30 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 44.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/31 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 47.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95

48H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95

72H: 2026/02/02 06 UTC: 21.7 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 06 UTC: 23.4 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

120H: 2026/02/04 06 UTC: 25.0 S / 56.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY
NEAR THE CENTRE WITH A CLOUDY PATTERN IN CDO EVOLVING INTO AN EYE
PATTERN. THE CURVATURE HAS IMPROVED IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO STRONG IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MONSOON FLOW. NO RECENT MICROWAVE AND
DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA TO ASSIST IN LOCALISATION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATION. THE DVORAK METHOD IS THEREFORE USED AND COMPARISON WITH
THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALLOWS WIND SPEEDS OF
APPROXIMATELY 55KT TO BE ESTIMATED, WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS REACHING
4.0-. THE ASCAT-B 0615 PASS OBTAINED AFTER THE ANALYSIS TIME CONFIRMS
THIS INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS THEREFORE USED AND THE SYSTEM IS
CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: CONTRADICTORY FLOWS ARE FADING WITH THE
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL BACKBONE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. THIS
SITUATION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST, GUIDED
SLIGHTLY MORE BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. THIS
THEREFORE LEADS TO A MOVEMENT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR THIS FRIDAY FOR A
LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE PROVINCE OF
MAHAJANGA. THE PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST DISMISSES CERTAIN MODELS THAT
ARE TOO RAPID AND CURRENTLY LOCATE THE SYSTEM INCORRECTLY, SUCH AS
GFS AND OTHER AMERICAN MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN
THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS
CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM
WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION
CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY AND ALLOWS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE INTENSIFICATION FORECAST IS CERTAIN, BUT
THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM, AND OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON AI
ENSEMBLES AND THE RELATIVELY RESPONSIVE AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON
THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND COULD EVEN APPROACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES
OVERLAND, AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR
AND THE MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN MAHAJANGA PROVINCE NEAR SAINT-ANDRE CAPE DURING THE
NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS AT THE END OF THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE TIME OF LANDING.
- HEAVY RAIN FROM FRIDAY MORNING, INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER WITH
200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ESPECIALLY AT LANDING TIME ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL OF 100-200 MM IN
24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY.
- SURGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 METRES IN THE LANDING AREA TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-1-30 16:00

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-30 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 42.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 42.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.9S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 16.7S 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 18.0S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.4S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 21.6S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 23.2S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 25.0S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 42.8E.
30JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z AND 310900Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 42.5E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 01 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FYTIA) WITH A FORMATIVE EYE AND ROBUST OUTFLOW,
INDICATED BY DEFINED CIRRUS FILAMENTS EXPANDING OUTWARD FROM THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED TO HAVE UNDERGONE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 25 KTS TO 60 KTS.
THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED NEAR 0800Z, HINTING AT A CONTINUED
RI TREND. A 300616Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALED A HIGHLY COMPACT
INNER-CORE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN A SMALL AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEVELOPING EYEWALL. IT IS SOMEWHAT
SURPRISING THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS RECORDED WERE 45 KTS IN THE
ASCAT, WHEN COMPARED TO THE VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT
AND THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH END OF THE ASCAT
DATA AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 19S REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 300616Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHWEST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
FMEE: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS AIDT: 57 KTS AT 300600Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 300600Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PICKING UP SPEED
IN THE SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
SOUTHERN AFRICA LOSES INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NER TO THE NORTH
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 18 CLOSE TO VILAMATSA,
MADAGASCAR. 19S WILL THEN TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL MADAGASCAR AND
EMERGE BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48. 19S IS THEN FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE NER MERGES WITH A BUILDING STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, 19S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT TAU 12, BUT AN EVEN HIGHER PEAK IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL AT TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT CROSSES MADAGASCAR DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION.
A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE AFTER TAU 48 AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE SYSTEM TAPPING INTO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KTS NEAR AROUND TAU 72,
DISALLOWING A SECOND BOUT OF RI. AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 65 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 160 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 AND MINIMAL
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MODELS STAY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120
AS WELL, WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE DUE PRIMARILY TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER POOR
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. INTENSITIES AT TAU 12 RANGE FROM 45 KTS
TO 75 KTS, AND SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A
STEADY INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL (HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC). THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE CLEARLY HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THROUGH TAU
48 AND REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FROM TAU 72 ONWARD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-30 16:45

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 30 日 18 时
“菲蒂娅”向东偏南方向移动

时  间: 1月30日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬15.7度，东经42.7度

强度等级: 强热带风暴

最大风力: 11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 987百帕

参考位置: 距离塔那那利佛西北向约620公里

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”于今日早晨07时生成，强度由8级增强至11级

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时5-10公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，1月31日中午前后在马达加斯加西部马哈赞加省附近沿海登陆，登陆前强度将有所加强，登陆后强度逐渐减弱，并于2月1日再次入海并继续向东南方向移动。受其影响，马达加斯加西部沿海及内陆地区将有9～11级风，阵风可达12～13级，“菲蒂娅”登陆后将给马哈赞加省带来强降水影响。

图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月30日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-1-30 17:02

JTWC 09Z分析升至T4.0

TPXS10 PGTW 300857
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/0830Z
C. 15.59S
D. 42.58E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 4.0, ADDING 0.5
FOR WHITE HATCH. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
RUCKER

Atsani艾莎尼 · 发表于 2026-1-30 19:14

新一轮卷绕，巩固对流环中

红豆棒冰冰 · 发表于 2026-1-30 20:45

JTWC 12Z分析打破德法限制，升至T4.5

TPXS10 PGTW 301204
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/1130Z
C. 15.38S
D. 42.83E
E. ONE/MET9
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. EYE WITH A BAND WIDTH OF 35NM
YIELDS AN E# OF 3.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT (NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET YIELDS 3.5 AND PT YIELDS 4.0. DBO DT.
CONSTRAINTS BROKEN DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BALMER

Atsani艾莎尼 · 发表于 2026-1-30 21:02

本帖最后由 Atsani艾莎尼于 2026-1-30 21:11 编辑

1130z云图和1230z云图
风眼变得更清晰明确，眼温在DG徘徊

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-1-30 21:45

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-30 22:15 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 301354
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 42.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 44.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 48.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85

48H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

60H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 52.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/02 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED AND
ADOPTED AN EYE PATTERN. THE 1120Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THIS
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE MADE IT POSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
CENTRE OF THE LOWER LAYERS, WHICH MADE A BRIEF TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE RESUMING ITS COURSE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE DT, A T AND CI OF 4.5- AND AN
INTENSITY OF 65KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SYMMETRY IN THE EYE LEADS US TO MAINTAIN THE
INTENSITY OF 65KT AND CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH-ALTITUDE RIDGE IS
GENERATING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS STEERING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE CENTRED SOUTH OF AFRICA HAS
TEMPORARILY IMPOSED A SOUTHERN FLOW, FORCING THE SYSTEM TO CHANGE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING,
ALLOWING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETAKE CONTROL AND GUIDE THE
SYSTEM BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE PROVINCE OF
MAHAJANGA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF
MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE
PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE
ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK
REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE
DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM
WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION
CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY AND ALLOWS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST AND
COULD EVEN APPROACH THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE
MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.

IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDING IN MAHAJANGA PROVINCE NEAR SAINT-ANDRE CAPE DURING NEXT
NIGHT.
- GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EVENING AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE
TIME OF LANDING.
- THE HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN PROGRESS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH
200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ESPECIALLY DURING LANDING
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL OF 100-200 MM IN
24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
- SEA BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TONIGHT.
- SURGE EXPECTED BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.5 METRES IN THE LANDING AREA
TODAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

普通的台风迷 · 发表于 2026-1-30 21:58

这速度简直绝了，只用三报就从TD一路升到TC。

yhh · 发表于 2026-1-30 22:10

本帖最后由 yhh 于 2026-1-30 23:15 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 43.0E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 43.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 16.1S 44.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.2S 46.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.6S 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 20.0S 49.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.0S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.4S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.0S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 43.4E.
30JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 973 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

WDXS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.5S 43.0E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 144 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
MOZAMBIQUE
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 22 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA) WITH A HIGHLY COMPACT INNER-CORE AND A DEFINED
15 NM EYE. THE SYSTEM IS ANALYZED TO HAVE NEARLY UNDERGONE EXTREME
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AT THIS POINT, INTENSIFYING 50 KTS IN 24
HOURS. 19S HAS ALSO INCREASED TRACK SPEEDS IN THE EASTWARD
DIRECTION, LEAVING THE COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN
ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT 19S REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY LOW (0-5 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BASED
ON THE OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 79 KTS AT 301100Z
CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 301200Z
CIMSS AIDT: 82 KTS AT 301200Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 83 KTS AT 301041Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 80 KTS AT 301200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INCREASED INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH
THROUGH TAU 72. LANDFALL IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR TAU 12
CLOSE TO VILAMATSA, MADAGASCAR. 19S WILL THEN TRAVERSE ACROSS CENTRAL
MADAGASCAR AND EMERGE BACK OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48. 19S IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS THE NER MERGES WITH A BUILDING STR TO THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDING INTENSITY, 19S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND
90 KTS. 19S HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS THUS FAR, SO IT MAY PEAK EVEN
HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN
THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT CROSSES MADAGASCAR DUE TO RUGGED TERRAIN
INTERACTION. A REINTENSIFICATION PHASE IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE AFTER TAU
48 AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE SYSTEM TAPPING
INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KTS NEAR AROUND TAU 72,
DISALLOWING A SECOND BOUT OF RI. AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 65 KTS IS
FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 19S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AT AROUND TAU 120 AS IT STARTS TO
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EQUATORWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE.
DISCOUNTING NAVGEM, THERE IS A MERE 80 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
72, WHICH ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASES TO 90 NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER,
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES QUITE A BIT AFTER TAU 72, TO AROUND
200 NM AT TAU 120. THE GDM ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE FASTEST MODEL WHILE
THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO
INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE LAND INTERACTION WITH
MADAGASCAR. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN WHAT REALITY
CURRENTLY DEPICTS. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE, HAFS-A AND HWRF BOTH TAKE
THE SYSTEM OVER LAND QUICKER THAN WHAT THE CONSENSUS TRACKER DOES,
ADDING FURTHER UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST GOES AGAINST NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR A PEAK OF AROUND 90 KTS AT TAU 12. MODELS
THEN GENERALLY AGREE ON RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN
REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS MORE CLOSELY TO HWRF AND COAMPS-TC FROM TAU 48 ONWARD, AND
CALLS FOR AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 65 KTS NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN

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留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

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