西澳以北二级热带气旋“卢安娜”(16U/17S.Luana) - 24日登陆西澳北部

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0654 UTC 23/01/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 120.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southeast (133 deg)
Speed of Movement: 13 knots (23 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  23/1200: 15.4S 121.0E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  994
+12:  23/1800: 15.8S 121.8E:     050 (095):  045  (085):  991
+18:  24/0000: 16.2S 122.5E:     060 (110):  055  (100):  984
+24:  24/0600: 16.5S 123.2E:     055 (105):  060  (110):  980
+36:  24/1800: 17.3S 124.2E:     075 (140):  045  (085):  990
+48:  25/0600: 18.2S 124.1E:     075 (140):  030  (055):  999
+60:  25/1800: 19.3S 123.9E:     095 (175):  030  (055):  999
+72:  26/0600: 20.7S 123.6E:     115 (210):  025  (045): 1002
+96:  27/0600: 23.9S 124.2E:     135 (250):  020  (035): 1004
+120: 28/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 16U continues to move at pace to the south east while developing.  

The current position is based on animated satellite visible imagery with good
confidence. Curved banding to the west has been sustained during the day, with
increased curved banding to the east. However, there is less convection near
the centre, indicating the system may still have a broader low level centre and
a monsoon low structure, as was evident in ASCAT pass this morning.

Intensity set at 35kn, based on Dvorak and increased to 35kn with an ASCAT pass
at 0030 UTC.

Dvorak analysis shows a curved band of 0.5 yielding a DT of 2.5. The MET is 2.5
with a D 24 hour trend, PT agrees, with FT/CI at 2.5. Some objective guidance
has started within the last 6 hours and at 0540 UTC was (1 min mean) ADT 43 kn,
AiDT 34 kn and DPRINT 30kn, which is generally consistent with current
intensity. An ASCAT pass at 0030 UTC shows 35 kn in the northern quadrant.   

The environment is favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures
are around 29 - 30  C, and the system is embedded within strong low-level
monsoon flow, providing deep tropical moisture. Upper-level outflow is
currently good, as shown by the cirrus fanning to the west. The upper outflow
is expected to improve further tonight as an upper-level trough approaches
southwest Western Australia. The system is also located within a pocket of low
vertical wind shear, supporting further organisation.

Tropical Low 16U is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next
12 to 18 hours, with the potential to reach Category 2 intensity prior to
landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast on Saturday. If the system continues
to strengthen faster than expected tonight, or take a track further west and
remain over water for longer, the system reaching category 3 strength cannot be
ruled out.

The system is currently expected to be steered generally to the southeast by
the northwesterly low-level monsoon flow. However, as 16U deepens, it is likely
to respond more strongly to the amplifying upper-level trough to the southwest.
Numerical model guidance is reasonably consistent regarding the overall track,
with some variation in north  south movement along the Kimberley coast
depending on the timing and rate of intensification.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1330 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 9
Issued at 2:48 pm WST on Friday 23 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 16U likely to develop into a category 2 tropical cyclone as it approaches the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 2:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 14.6 degrees South 120.5 degrees East, estimated to be 415 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 450 kilometres northwest of Derby.

Movement: southeast at 23 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the northwest of the Kimberley coast. The system is forecast to intensify as it tracks southeast during Friday, towards the northwest Kimberley coast.

16U may reach tropical cyclone strength overnight Friday and intensify to a category 2 system Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday, most likely between Broome and Kuri Bay.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island during Saturday as the system approaches and moves over the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay Bay from late Friday or early Saturday morning. Gales may extend east to Derby and south to Broome during Saturday morning and north to Mitchell Plateau later Saturday. Gales may extend south to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible from late Friday for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Elsewhere, between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Mitchell Plateau on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 6:00 pm AWST Friday 23 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 23	tropical low	14.6S	120.5E	55
+6hr	8 pm January 23	tropical low	15.4S	121.0E	75
+12hr	2 am January 24	1	15.8S	121.8E	95
+18hr	8 am January 24	2	16.2S	122.5E	110
+24hr	2 pm January 24	2	16.5S	123.2E	105
+36hr	2 am January 25	1	17.3S	124.2E	140
+48hr	2 pm January 25	tropical low	18.2S	124.1E	140
+60hr	2 am January 26	tropical low	19.3S	123.9E	175
+72hr	2 pm January 26	tropical low	20.7S	123.6E	210

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 230553
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/0530Z
C. 14.46S
D. 120.36E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 14.1S 120.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 120.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 15.3S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 16.3S 123.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 17.4S 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 18.3S 124.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 120.6E.
23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 230600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 230900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN)
   
4. WARNING NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 120.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 17S WITH A CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS PERSISTENT
    
20. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION,
    
21. OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
    
22. SUPPORTIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
    
23. SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS THAN 5 KTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
    
24. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C. THE GENERAL
    
25. STRUCTURE OF TC 17S HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
    
26. FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
    
27. LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
    
28. BASED ON ANIMATED MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
    
29. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE AGENCY DVORAK
    
30. ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
    
35. THE NORTH
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 230540Z
    
40.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 230540Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 230519Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 230610Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO
    
60. THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTO LANDFALL ALONG THE
    
61. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. FOLLOWING TAU 24, THE
    
62. TRACK FOR TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION
    
63. AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION BY TAU 48.
    
64. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE CYCLONE IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE
    
65. INTENSIFYING THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS THE ENVIRONMENT
    
66. REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30
    
67. C, MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 10 KTS, AND SUPPORTIVE
    
68. OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD BEFORE LANDFALL IS
    
69. FORECASTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, HIGHER INTENSITIES
    
70. ABOVE 55 KTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. BETWEEN TAU
    
71. 24 AND TAU 36, TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND QUICKLY
    
72. DISSIPATE OVER LAND TOWARD 30 KTS BY TAU 48.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    
75. AGREEMENT DURING THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK FORECAST, WITH A
    
76. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 58 NM INTO LANDFALL. THE JTWC TRACK
    
77. FORECAST HAS BEEN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALIGNED CLOSELY
    
78. WITH THE JTWC CONSENSUS. REGARDING INTENSITY, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS
    
79. SOLUTIONS ILLUSTRATE A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
    
80. NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH RAPID INTENSIFICATION MEMBERS TRIGGERING OVER
    
81. THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOLLOWING TAU 24, ALL JTWC CONSENSUS MODELS
    
82. CHARACTERIZE A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE INTO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
    
83. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
    
84. POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THE
    
85. JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
86. 
    
87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
88.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
89.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
90. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 230857
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/0830Z
C. 15.02S
D. 120.91E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.55 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2026-1-23 14:50
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU ...

又是一个近岸加强的TC

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued at 6:05 pm WST on Friday 23 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 16U, currently intensifying, likely to impact the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday as a Category 2 system.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to Kuri Bay, including Derby.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland areas to the warning area.

Cancelled Zone
Mitchell Plateau area

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 5:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 120.5 degrees East, estimated to be 350 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 400 kilometres west northwest of Derby.

Movement: south southeast at 24 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the north northwest of Broome and is intensifying. The system is expected to move east southeast and develop into a tropical cyclone overnight Friday.

16U is in a favourable environment and is forecast to intensify to a category 2 system Saturday morning, before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday, most likely between Broome and Cockatoo Island. Once 16U has crossed the coast it is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning over the southern Kimberley.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island during Saturday as the system approaches and moves over the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay from early Saturday morning. Gales may extend east to Derby and south towards Broome during Saturday and to adjacent inland areas overnight Saturday night. Gales may extend from Broome to Bidyadanga later Saturday if the system takes a track further west.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible overnight tonight for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Elsewhere, between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Mitchell Plateau on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Friday 23 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm January 23	tropical low	15.3S	120.5E	55
+6hr	11 pm January 23	1	15.8S	121.0E	75
+12hr	5 am January 24	2	16.1S	121.8E	95
+18hr	11 am January 24	2	16.5S	122.6E	105
+24hr	5 pm January 24	2	16.9S	123.3E	115
+36hr	5 am January 25	1	17.7S	124.0E	135
+48hr	5 pm January 25	tropical low	18.6S	124.0E	155
+60hr	5 am January 26	tropical low	19.9S	123.8E	205
+72hr	5 pm January 26	tropical low	21.4S	123.7E	225

红豆棒冰冰

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2026-1-23 17:02
JTWC 09Z分析维持T2.5

JTWC稍早前重新分析，修改了定位

TPXS12 PGTW 231219
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/0831Z
C. 15.39S
D. 120.13E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
RE-EVALUATED FOR POSITION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

pocketbox

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1317 UTC 23/01/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 120.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south southeast (146 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (17 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  23/1800: 15.7S 121.3E:     040 (080):  045  (085):  991
+12:  24/0000: 16.0S 122.1E:     050 (095):  055  (100):  984
+18:  24/0600: 16.4S 122.8E:     060 (110):  060  (110):  981
+24:  24/1200: 16.9S 123.4E:     065 (115):  050  (095):  987
+36:  25/0000: 17.6S 123.9E:     075 (135):  035  (065):  996
+48:  25/1200: 18.6S 123.8E:     090 (165):  030  (055):  999
+60:  26/0000: 20.0S 123.6E:     105 (195):  025  (050): 1002
+72:  26/1200: 21.6S 123.7E:     115 (215):  025  (045): 1003
+96:  27/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 28/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 16U, currently intensifying, likely to impact the northwest
Kimberley coast during Saturday as a Category 2 system.   

The current position is based on an evening microwave pass (WSFM at 1007 UTC)
and animated enhanced infrared with moderate confidence. There has been some
increase in the convection and curved banding through the afternoon, however
the recent microwave pass does indicate the low level circulation is broad and
yet to be well defined.  

Intensity set at 35kn, based on morning ASCAT pass.  

Dvorak analysis shows a curved band of 0.4-0.5 yielding a DT of 2.5. The MET is
2.5 with a 24 hour trend of D, no adjustment made to PT, with FT/CI at 2.5.
Some objective guidance is available and at 1200 UTC was (1 min mean) ADT 47
kn, AiDT 37 kn and DPRINT 31kn, DMINT 28 kn which is generally consistent with
current intensity.  

The environment is favourable for further development. Sea surface temperatures
are around 29 - 30  C, the vertical wind shear is low and the system is
embedded within a very moist environment. Upper-level outflow and associated
upper divergence is currently good, as shown by the cirrus fanning to the west.
The upper outflow is expected to improve further Saturday as an upper-level
trough moves across Western Australia.  

While the environment is very favourable Tropical Low 16U is expected to
develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 6 to 12, with the potential to
reach Category 2 intensity prior to landfall on the northwest Kimberley coast
on Saturday. A small amount of model guidance indicates that 16U may take a
more southerly track to the west of the Dampier Peninsula, this means it would
remain over water for longer and could potentially develop into a severe
tropical cyclone (Category 3).

Most ensemble guidance indicates 16U will be steered generally to the southeast
by a combination of the strong northwesterly low-level monsoon flow and the
approaching upper trough. The most likely scenario is a crossing between Broome
and Cockatoo Island around 06UTC Saturday, with ensemble variations about 6
hours either side. Once 16U moves inland it will weaken below cyclone strength
during Sunday morning and then move southwards over inland WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1930 UTC.

---

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 8:49 pm WST on Friday 23 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Low 16U to develop into a tropical cyclone overnight and impact the northwest Kimberley Coast on Saturday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Broome to northeast of Kuri Bay, including Derby.

Watch Zone
Bidyadanga to Broome and adjacent inland areas to the warning area.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 16U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South 120.6 degrees East, estimated to be 340 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 275 kilometres west northwest of Cape Leveque.

Movement: south southeast at 17 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 16U is currently located to the north northwest of Broome and gradually intensifying. The system is expected to move east southeast and develop into a tropical cyclone early Saturday morning.

16U is in a favourable environment and is forecast to intensify to a category 2 system before crossing the northwest Kimberley coast during Saturday, most likely between Broome and Cockatoo Island. Once 16U has crossed the coast it is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone strength during Sunday morning inland from Derby.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 155 km/h may develop near the system centre between Beagle Bay and Cockatoo Island during Saturday as the system approaches and moves over the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 120 km/h are possible between Beagle Bay and Kuri Bay from early Saturday morning. Gales may extend south to Derby and towards Broome during Saturday and to adjacent inland areas overnight Saturday night. If the system takes a track further west, gales may extend from Broome to Bidyadanga later Saturday.

HEAVY RAINFALL which may lead to FLASH FLOODING is possible overnight tonight for the northwest Kimberley district, including the coast and adjacent inland areas during Saturday.

Coastal residents within King Sound are specifically warned of the potential for a DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone centre crosses the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide, with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Elsewhere, between Cape Leveque and Cockatoo Island tides are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with LARGE WAVES and MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas on Saturday as 16U crosses the Kimberley coast. Tides will be higher than normal between Beagle Bay and Mitchell Plateau on Saturday.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit www.emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 12:00 am AWST Saturday 24 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm January 23	tropical low	15.3S	120.6E	55
+6hr	2 am January 24	1	15.7S	121.3E	80
+12hr	8 am January 24	2	16.0S	122.1E	95
+18hr	2 pm January 24	2	16.4S	122.8E	110
+24hr	8 pm January 24	2	16.9S	123.4E	115
+36hr	8 am January 25	tropical low	17.6S	123.9E	135
+48hr	8 pm January 25	tropical low	18.6S	123.8E	165
+60hr	8 am January 26	tropical low	20.0S	123.6E	195
+72hr	8 pm January 26	tropical low	21.6S	123.7E	215

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS12 PGTW 231223
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (NW OF BROOME)
B. 23/1130Z
C. 15.47S
D. 120.38E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT AGREES WITH DT. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   PETERSEN

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 120.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 120.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 15.9S 122.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 16.9S 123.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 17.8S 123.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 19.0S 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 121.0E.
23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 231500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN)
   
4. WARNING NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.1S 120.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 194 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
    
13. AUSTRALIA
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 10 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 17S WITH WIDESPREAD CURVED CONVECTION SLOWLY
    
20. CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
    
21. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEMS LOW-LEVEL
    
22. CIRCULATION IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED, BUT PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
    
23. THE FORMATIVE BANDING. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
    
24. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF LESS
    
25. THAN 10 KTS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29-30 C, AND
    
26. GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
    
27. IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 231248Z METOP-B ASCAT
    
28. PASS.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
    
33. THE NORTH
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
37.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 231130Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 231130Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 231207Z
    
41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 33 KTS AT 231230Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
45.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST
    
59. THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS, ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
    
60. OF THE NER DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU
    
61. 24 NEAR THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. POST LANDFALL, TC 17S IS EXPECTED TO
    
62. RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
    
63. AUSTRALIA DRIVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
64. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO FURTHER
    
65. CONSOLIDATE AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY TOWARD 55 KTS OVER THE NEXT 12
    
66. HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES INCREASINGLY
    
67. DEFINED. NEAR TAU 18, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND
    
68. BEGIN ITS TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE. TC 17S IS FORECASTED TO
    
69. CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL, DISSIPATING TO 30 KTS BETWEEN
    
70. TAU 36 AND TAU 48 DUE TO TOPOGRAPHICAL INTERACTION.  
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARTIFICIAL
    
73. INTELLIGENCE (AI) GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
    
74. THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ILLUSTRATING A 42
    
75. NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INTO LANDFALL OVER THE DAMPIER PENINSULA. THE
    
76. JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ALIGNED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE JTWC
    
77. CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC AND AI SOLUTIONS,
    
78. LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST POSITION.
    
79. REGARDING INTENSITY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
    
80. TRIGGER FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE CYCLE, CHARACTERIZING QUICK
    
81. INTENSIFICATION TOWARD 55 KTS BY TAU 12. NEAR TAU 18, ALL JTWC
    
82. CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A RAPID WEAKENING PHASE AFTER LANDFALL.
    
83. THEREFORE, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ASSESSED WITH
    
84. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND PLACED CLOSELY TOWARD THE RAPID
    
85. INTENSIFICATION SOLUTIONS INTO TAU 12, AND THEN ALIGNED CLOSELY
    
86. WITH THE JTWC INTENSITY CONSENSUS BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 48.  
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
90.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
91. NNNN

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1. WTXS31 PGTW 231500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
   
4. RMKS/
   
5. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 003   
   
6.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   
7.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   
8.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   
9.     ---
   
10.    WARNING POSITION:
    
11.    231200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 120.5E
    
12.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
    
13.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
    
14.      POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    
15.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    
16.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    
17.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
18.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
19.                             015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
20.                             015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
21.                             025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
22.    REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 120.5E
    
23.     ---
    
24.    FORECASTS:
    
25.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    
26.    240000Z --- 16.2S 121.8E
    
27.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    
28.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
29.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
30.                             010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
31.                             005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
32.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
33.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
34.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
35.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
36.                             110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
37.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    
38.     ---
    
39.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    
40.    241200Z --- 17.1S 123.1E
    
41.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    
42.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
43.    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    
44.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
45.                             040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
46.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
47.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
48.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    
49.     ---
    
50.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    
51.    250000Z --- 17.9S 123.6E
    
52.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    
53.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
54.    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    
55.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
56.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
57.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
58.                             080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
59.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
    
60.     ---
    
61.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    
62.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    
63.    251200Z --- 19.0S 123.7E
    
64.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    
65.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
66.    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    
67.     ---
    
68. REMARKS:
    
69. 231500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 120.8E.
    
70. 23JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    
71. 194 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
    
72. SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
    
73. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
    
74. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    
75. 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.
    
76. //
    
77. NNNN

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