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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-11-20 12:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 9.8S 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.2S 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 10.7S 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 11.4S 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.1S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 13.1S 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 13.9S 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 14.1S 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 133.2E.
20NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211
NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 200300
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
- 008//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 9.8S 133.2E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 211 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 19 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN IRREGULAR
- CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, WITH SOME ISOLATED OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR
- THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF ENHANCED
- INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN GENERAL, THOUGH A WARM
- SPOT IS STARTING TO POP UP WHERE THE EYE WOULD BE ANTICIPATED TO
- FORM, SUGGESTING THE SYSTEM IS STILL INTENSIFYING. A 192119 WSF-M
- 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED MIC EYE FEATURE,
- THOUGH THE ACCOMPANYING 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTED A MUCH LESS-DEFINED
- EYE FEATURE. COMPARISON OF THE TWO INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS
- ASYMMETRIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH HEIGHT.
- ADDITIONALLY, THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
- CIRCULATION ARE RELATIVELY DRY AND DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
- CONVECTION, SUPPORTING THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN THOSE
- QUADRANTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CIMSS ATMOSPHERIC
- MOTION VECTORS (AMVS) SHOW THAT WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
- CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, THE AREAL EXTENT HAS DECREASED, AND IN
- FACT THERE IS SOME PENETRATION OF EASTERLY FLOW IN TOWARDS THE
- CENTER, EMANATING FROM AN AREA OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF PAPUA NEW
- GUINEA. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY
- WELL-DEFINED EYE HAS NOW DISSOLVED AND IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN THE
- RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200033Z ASCAT-B PASS BULLSEYE PASS AND
- EXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER WSF-M MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF
- THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE
- ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW TO MODERATE
- EASTERLY SHEAR, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS, OFFSET BY
- DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTRUSION, AND MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING
- ENVIRONMENT, WITH A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
- NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA AND A WEAKER NER SOUTH OF JAVA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 76 KTS AT 192300Z
- CIMSS ADT: 76 KTS AT 192330Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 192330Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 59 KTS AT 192127Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 55 KTS AT 200030Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 10-15 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: WEAK WESTWARD OUTFLOW; DRY MID-LEVEL AIR,
- PARTICULARLY EVIDENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER; MODERATE
- MID-LEVEL SHEAR.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 05S HAS JERKED
- SOUTHEASTWARD, THOUGH THIS MOTION IS LIKELY MORE OF A WOBBLE CAUSED
- BY VORTEX PRECESSION, RATHER THAN A TRUE TRACK CHANGE, AS THE
- DEEP-LAYER STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH JUST YET, AND THE
- SYSTEM IS STILL ENSCONCED IN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN. HOWEVER,
- THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS BUILDING AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER
- THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, AND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE
- EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE WILL PINCH OFF INTO A DISTINCT STR CENTER
- OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 24, TC 05S WILL SHIFT TO A
- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND THIS GENERAL STEERING SETUP WILL CONTINUE
- THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXACT TRACK,
- WHETHER OVER THE TIWI ISLANDS OR ALONG THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF
- DARWIN, WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE STR OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
- DEVELOPS AND HOW QUICKLY IT BUILDS. A FASTER DEVELOPMENT WILL TEND
- TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE AND OVER THE TIWI ISLANDS, WHILE
- A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE THE TRACK CLOSER TO DARWIN. THE
- CURRENT FORECAST HEDGES TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTION, WITH THE
- SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL FIRST ALONG THE SHORES OF CROKER ISLAND AND
- GARIG GUNAK BARLU NATIONAL PARK BY TAU 36, QUICKLY CROSSING THE VAN
- DIEMEN GULF AND MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF DARWIN BY
- AROUND TAU 48. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF
- BY TAU 72, BEFORE MAKING A THIRD LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST NORTHEAST
- OF KALUMBURU. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED WAY OFF ON THE INTENSITY TREND
- SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, WITH EVEN THE HAFS-A NOW SHOWING A
- WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEAR-TERM, THOUGH IT STILL DEPICTS
- SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE PRIMARY INHIBITORS
- REMAIN THE VORTEX TILT, MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
- INTRUSIONS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. MOST GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE
- MODELS STILL SUGGEST A RELAXATION OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH WILL
- ALLOW FOR VORTEX SYMMETRIZATION AND AN OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE
- ENVIRONMENT. ONCE THESE FACTORS ALIGN, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
- QUICKLY INTENSIFY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48, JUST PRIOR TO THE
- SECOND LANDFALL POINT IN THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE SYSTEM WILL
- WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COASTLINE NEAR DARWIN, THEN
- REINTENSIFY OVER THE BONAPARTE GULF, BEFORE WEAKENING ONCE MORE
- OVER LAND BY TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MODEL PACKAGE HAS CONTINUED TO CLUSTER MORE
- TIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS STARTING
- TO CONGEAL IN A SINGLE GROUP. THE ONLY OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS THE
- GALWEM, WHICH DEPICTS THE SYSTEM TRACKING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
- AFTER TAU 72. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONFINED TO A
- GRADUALLY EXPANDING ENVELOPE THAT REACHES 170NM ACROSS BY TAU 120.
- THE GEFS MARKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE ECMWF
- AND EC-AIFS MARK THE SOUTHERN SIDE, ALONG THE GDM FGN MEAN.
- AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO A SHOW A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE
- OF SOLUTIONS, WITH THE MEANS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE
- DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD, HOWEVER THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS SHOW
- A VERY WIDE DISPERSION, COVERING THE ENTIRETY OF THE TIMOR AND
- ARAFURA SEAS AND WELL INTO NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY
- LARGE ENSEMBLE DISPERSION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF
- THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED WITH LOW
- CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS
- WELL, WITH NEARLY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE NOW INDICATING
- NEAR-TERM WEAKENING, FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
- INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36 OR TAU 48. THE CONSENSUS MEAN, SHIPS
- AND HAFS-A INDICATE A RELATIVELY FLAT TREND THROUGH TAU 48, AND
- THE HAFS-A SHOWS A STEADY PACE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU
- 24, UP TO TAU 84. HOWEVER, THE HAFS-A TRACK IS BY FAR THE MOST
- EQUATORWARD, WELL NORTH OF THE TIWI ISLANDS, AND IS THUS UNLIKELY
- TO BE REPRESENTATIVE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
- HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN A MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LARGE RUN
- TO RUN SWINGS IN THE GUIDANCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-20 06:10
