阿拉伯海北部强气旋风暴“沙赫提”(ARB 02/02A.Shakhti) - 将西行回旋 - JTWC:75KT

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 21.1N 62.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 62.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 20.7N 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 20.3N 60.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.1N 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.6N 60.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 19.3N 61.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 62.2E.
04OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
212 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 042100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 62.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 20 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DRY AIR
    
18. BOUNDING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE OF
    
19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A. ENHANCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE
    
20. NORTHWEST APPLIES AN APPARENT TILT TO THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE. WATER
    
21. VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN
    
22. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
    
23. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
24. AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR, WHICH DEPICTED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
25. CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
    
26. INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
27. AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041607Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
    
32. BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND A
    
33. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN INDIA.
    
34. 
    
35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
36.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
37.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
38.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS SATCON: 62 KTS AT 041653Z
    
40.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 041800Z
    
41.    CIMSS AIDT: 75 KTS AT 041700Z
    
42.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 72 KTS AT 041800Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
46.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
48. 
    
49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
53. 
    
54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
55. 
    
56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
58. 
    
59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
    
60. 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
    
61. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
    
62. RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER
    
63. TAU 36 AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER INDIA, RESULTING IN A
    
64. GRADUAL TRACK RECURVE EASTWARD FROM TAU 36-72. HIGH VERTICAL WIND
    
65. SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL ERODE THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF TC 02A.
    
66. AFTER TAU 24, THERE WILL BE MINIMAL AVAILABLE WARM SEA SURFACE
    
67. TEMPERATURES DUE TO SLOWING TRACK MOTION AND ENHANCED UPWELLING IN
    
68. THE SOMALI JET REGION. THE WEAKENING RATE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
    
69. INCREASE, LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
    
70. FORECAST PERIOD.
    
71. 
    
72. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATELY
    
73. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND RECURVE
    
74. EASTWARD BETWEEN 36-60 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
    
75. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY BASED ON HOW STRONGLY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
    
76. RIDGE WEAKENS. THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE,
    
77. WHICH INDICATES CONTINUED WEAKENING TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
78. 
    
79. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
80.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
81.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
82. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

[code][/code]

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 21.0N 61.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 61.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.6N 60.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.0N 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 19.8N 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.6N 60.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 61.1E.
05OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 050300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 009//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.0N 61.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
    
18. CONVECTION TILTED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
    
19. (LLCC) OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A. THE VERTICAL TILT WITH HEIGHT
    
20. IS DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR FROM
    
21. THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
    
22. BASED ON THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CENTER BELOW THE DEEP CONVECTION
    
23. DEPICTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
24. OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
    
25. OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
26. 
    
27. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
28. 
    
29. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
    
30. TWO DEEP LAYER RIDGES
    
31. 
    
32. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
33.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
34.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
35.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
36.    CIMSS SATCON: 66 KTS AT 042150Z
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 050000Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 81 KTS AT 042000Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 66 KTS AT 050016Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 70 KTS AT 050000Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
43. UNFAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
45.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: LOW
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL WEAKLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE
    
59. NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
    
60. AFTER TAU 24, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO
    
61. THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN A BRIEF QUASI STATIONARY PERIOD BEFORE
    
62. THE SYSTEM CURVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
    
63. FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
    
64. TO ERODE THE STRUCTURE OF TC 02A AND WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE FOR
    
65. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPWELLING WILL INCREASE THE
    
66. RATE OF WEAKENING AS THE TRACK SPEED SLOWS. ULTIMATELY, TC 02A WILL
    
67. DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
68. 
    
69. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
    
70. AGREEMENT THAT TC 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
    
71. 24-36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW AND GRADUAL CURVE TOWARDS THE
    
72. EASTWARD DIRECTION. EXCLUDING OUTLIERS OF GFS AND NAVGEM, THERE IS
    
73. AN APPROXIMATELY 50NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
74. PERIOD. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN HIGH
    
75. AGREEMENT THAT WEAKENING WILL BE CONTINUOUS WHILE IN UNFAVORABLE
    
76. CONDITIONS AND DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TAU 36-60.
    
77. 
    
78. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
79.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
80.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
81. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 05 日 10 时
“沙赫提”向西南方向移动

时        间:   5日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北印度洋

命        名:    “沙赫提”，SHAKHTI

中心位置:    北纬21.0度，东经62.0度

强度等级:    强气旋风暴

最大风力:    11级，32米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    990百帕

参考位置:    距离阿曼马斯喀特东南方向约470公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“沙赫提”强度由10级加强为11级

预报结论:   “沙赫提”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度缓慢减弱



图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月5日08时00分）

ygsj24

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 61.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 61.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 20.1N 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 19.7N 60.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 19.5N 60.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 19.4N 61.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 61.2E.
05OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
146 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z
IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 050900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 010//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.5N 61.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 146 NM EAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT
    
18. DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
    
19. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED,
    
20. INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE EAST-
    
21. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. A 050216Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT
    
22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A HAS RETAINED ITS MICROWAVE EYE, DESPITE THE
    
23. MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OBFUSCATION OF THE LLCC BY THE
    
24. CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS
    
25. CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
26. DRY AIR, AND UPWELLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM'S STAGNATION. THE
    
27. INITIAL
    
28. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
    
29. FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED 050216Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 050436Z
    
30. METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
    
31. INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
32. 050436Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS, CORROBORATED BY THE OBJECTIVE
    
33. INTENSITY AIDS AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND THE 050436Z METOP-
    
36. B ASCAT IMAGE.
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
    
39. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND AN STR
    
40. POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA
    
41. 
    
42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
43.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
44.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
45.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 050630Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 68 KTS AT 050630Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 57 KTS AT 050630Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
    
51. UNFAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
53.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND UPWELLING
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
    
68. TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    
69. THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE OVER SAUDI
    
70. ARABIA. AROUND TAU 24, 02A WILL TAKE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD CURVE AS
    
71. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE STR POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
    
72. ARABIAN SEA. THE STR WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST AND WEST, CAUSING 02A TO
    
73. BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE RECURVING OVER THE NOW-DOMINANT STEERING
    
74. RIDGE. 02A WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
    
75. PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 02A IS
    
76. FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN FROM HERE ON OUT DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT
    
77. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT OF THE
    
78. STORM'S SLOW TRACK MOTION, COOLER WATER UPWELLING HAS ALSO HINDERED
    
79. DEVELOPMENT AND WILL LIKELY HASTEN DISSIPATION. DISSIPATION IS
    
80. FORECAST NO LATER THAN TAU 48.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT
    
83. AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 BUT HAVE VARYING
    
84. TRACK SPEEDS. THOUGH MOST MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD CURVE
    
85. BEGINNING AFTER TAU 24, THE TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES GREATLY IMPACT
    
86. THE LOCATION AT WHICH 02A WILL TURN, LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO THE
    
87. JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  OUTLIERS INCLUDE NAVGEM -- WHICH TRACKS 02A
    
88. SOUTHWEST UNTIL TAU 48 BEFORE RECURVING, AND GFS -- WHICH IS THE
    
89. ONLY MODEL PREDICTING A NORTHEASTERN CURVE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
    
90. IS PLACED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM
    
91. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH
    
92. TAU 48, WITH ALL MODELS PREDICTING A CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND
    
93. BEGINNING IMMINENTLY WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS. AS
    
94. A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
95. CONFIDENCE.
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
99.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
100. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：王海平  2025 年 10 月 05 日 18 时
“沙赫提”向西偏南方向移动

时        间:   5日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北印度洋

命        名:    “沙赫提”，SHAKHTI

中心位置:    北纬20.8度，东经61.1度

强度等级:    强气旋风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    988百帕

参考位置:    距离阿曼马斯喀特东南方向约420公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“沙赫提”强度维持

预报结论:   “沙赫提”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度缓慢减弱



图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月5日14时00分）

ygsj24

ygsj24

ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 60.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 60.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 19.6N 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 19.5N 59.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 19.2N 60.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 60.5E.
05OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
104 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND
061500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 051500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 011//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 20.0N 60.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 104 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. AND FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
    
19. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER.
    
20. ANIMATED MSI ALSO REVEALS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A HAS
    
21. MAINTAINED ITS VISUAL APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER, A
    
22. 051327Z WSFM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE INTERNAL STRUCTURE
    
23. HAS DEGRADED SHOWING A BREAK IN THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE NORTHERN
    
24. SEMICIRCLE. 02A REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
    
25. BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
    
26. ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
27. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 051327Z WSFM
    
28. MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
29. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AGENCY
    
30. DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
    
35. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND AN STR
    
36. POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN ARABIAN SEA
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS SATCON: 59 KTS AT 051200Z
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 051200Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 61 KTS AT 051200Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 43 KTS AT 051130Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 57 KTS AT 051200Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
50.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
52.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD
    
65. TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    
66. THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE OVER SAUDI
    
67. ARABIA. BETWEEN TAUS 12-24, 02A WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE
    
68. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN
    
69. ARABIAN SEA, CREATING A MORE CONFUSING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
    
70. TAU 24, 02A WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
    
71. OF THE STR. 02A IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
    
72. FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH
    
73. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPWELLING DUE TO THE STORM'S QUASI-STATIONARY
    
74. MOVEMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPEDITE DISSIPATION. DISSIPATION IS
    
75. FORECAST TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 36.
    
76. 
    
77. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT
    
78. AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 12 WITH THE
    
79. SOUTHEASTWARD TURN COMMENCING AT AROUND TAU 24. THE VARYING MODEL
    
80. TRACK SPEEDS IMPACT THE LOCATION AT WHICH 02A WILL TURN SOUTHEAST,
    
81. INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAJOR OUTLIERS
    
82. ARE NAVGEM -- WHICH TRACKS 02A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UNTIL TAU 24, AND
    
83. GFS -- THE ONLY MODEL FAILING TO PREDICT A RECURVE PRIOR TO
    
84. DISSIPATION. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED IN AGREEMENT WITH
    
85. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
    
86. GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH ALL MODELS
    
87. PREDICTING A CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS.
    
88. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
89. CONFIDENCE.
    
90. 
    
91. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
92.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

复制代码