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ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171421ZAUG2025//
REF/B/MSG/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180021ZAUG2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
22.5N 126.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AFB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EMBEDDED WITHIN A REVERSE ORIENTED MONSOON
TROUGH. RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND IS CONSOLIDATING INTO FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND
STRONG EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ECENS
AND GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREE THAT 92W WILL DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE
ECENS MODEL BEING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE GEFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 171430) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.4N 108.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 107.9E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALSO HAVING CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO
THE SOUTHEAST. A CONTRACTING WIND FIELD AND REDUCTION OF THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS INDICATES THAT A TRANSITION FROM A MONSOON DEPRESSION
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS COMMENCING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR
THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31
C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PGTW 180030) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.3N
149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CUSP OR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC), AT THE NORTHERN END OF AN EASTERLY WAVE FEATURE. A
COMBINATION OF AN 180015Z AND 172351Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES REVEALED
THE FACT THAT 90W REMAINS PRIMARILY A WAVE WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
CUSP AT THE NORTHERN END OF IT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25KTS EXTEND
FROM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK TO THE NORTHWEST OF FANANU, THEN TURN SHARPLY
TO EASTERLIES AT THE LATITUDE OF 90W, WITH EMBEDDED POCKETS OF 25KT
EASTERLY WINDS EXTENDING TO A POINT ABOUT 290NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ASSESSED TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SSTS AND LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 90W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BUT DO NOT CURRENTLY DEPICT THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED WINDS OF 25-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM, IN THE GRADIENT FLOW, AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF
GUAM. ENSEMBLE DEVELOPMENT IS STRONG ON THIS CIRCULATION WITH ECENS
BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE MODEL INTENSITY WISE HOWEVER GEFS IS STILL IN
AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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楼主: Enceladus
发表于 2025-8-18 12:46
。。。。