墨西哥西南一级飓风“弗洛茜”(06E.Flossie) - 沿岸西北行 - NHC:75KT

ygsj24

023
ABPZ20 KNHC 281755
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico.  Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be initiated
later today.  For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
expected over portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico
through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 282000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271951ZJUN2025//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 96.7W TO 14.9N 101.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4N 97.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.0N 96.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 97.2W, APPROXIMATELY 144NM SOUTH
OF PUNTA ESCONDIDA, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A MORE DEFINED AREA OF ROTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUILDING
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. A 281621Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE ROTATION, WITH ELEVATED WINDS OF
20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A 24-36
HOUR PERIOD AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 272000).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292000Z.//
NNNN

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昨天晚间至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

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SSD 18Z分析T1.0

TXPZ28 KNES 281807
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  28/1800Z
C.  13.5N
D.  97.0W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.0/1.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF
1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec continue to become better organized.  Although the
system does not yet appear to have a well-defined circulation,
further development is expected and a tropical depression or
tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern
Mexico.  Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend.  For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


Forecaster Roberts

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SSD 00Z分析升至T1.5

TXPZ28 KNES 290007
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  29/0000Z
C.  13.4N
D.  98.1W
E.  FIVE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WHILE THE
MET IS 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...TURK

ygsj24

477
ABPZ20 KNHC 290518
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system
located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico have become
much better organized over the past several hours.  If current
trends continue, a tropical depression will very likely form early
Sunday while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the
coast of southern Mexico.  Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.  Locally heavy rainfall is
expected along portions of the Pacific coast of southern Mexico
during the next few days.  For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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SSD 06Z分析升至T2.0

TXPZ28 KNES 290615
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  29/0600Z
C.  13.1N
D.  99.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T2.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...3.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. LLCC
WELL-DEFINED. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW FAIR SE/S/SW QUADS AND NON-EXISTENT
ELSEWHERE. MET=1.5 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO IRREG/PULSING
CONVECTION AND BANDING NOT CLR-CUT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KONON

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今天上午至中午ASCAT风场扫描

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NRL显示已升格06E

06E SIX 250629 0600 12.9N 99.2W EPAC 25 1008