墨西哥以南一级飓风“芭芭拉”(02E.Barbara) - 西北行进，东太新风季首飓 - NHC:65KT

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WTPZ42 KNHC 090235
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
900 PM CST Sun Jun 08 2025

After a marked decrease in deep convection a few hours ago,
thunderstorm activity is now increasing near the center of the
storm, with a comma-shaped pattern evolving.  A recent GPM
microwave overpass suggested that the inner core structure is
becoming a little better defined.  Subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates are 55 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and this is used for
the advisory intensity.  This is also in agreement with a blend of
the various objective intensity estimates based on both
geostationary and limited microwave imagery.

Although there is some scatter in the center fixes, the overall
motion appears to be west-northwestward at around 300/9 kt.  
Though some of the track guidance suggests a more northwestward
motion during the next few days, there should be enough of a ridge
to the north of Barbara to prevent a significant northward turn
during the next 48-72 hours.  In fact the GFS model, which appears
to have the most realistic and about the strongest initialization
for the system, is on the left side of the guidance envelope.  The
official forecast has been shifted to the right of the previous one
based on the model consensus, but leans toward the GFS solution.  By
72-96 hours, Barbara should be reduced to a remnant low and move
generally westward following the low-level flow.

Barbara is currently over warm waters within an environment of
low vertical wind shear and high atmospheric moisture.  These
factors should result in the cyclone strengthening into a hurricane
very soon, and the NHC prediction is above almost all of the
guidance.  In a day or so, cooler SSTs are expected to cause a
weakening trend to begin.  The model guidance is in good agreement
on Barbara weakening into a tropical depression in 60-72 hours, and
this is also shown in the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 16.5N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 17.2N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/0000Z 20.2N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
60H  11/1200Z 20.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  12/0000Z 20.5N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/0000Z 20.5N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 09 日 10 时
“芭芭拉”向西北方向移动

时        间:    9日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经104.5度, 北纬16.2度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    9级，23米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    995百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥格雷罗州阿卡普尔科偏西方向约480公里

变化过程:    强度逐渐增强

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月9日08时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午SAR扫到80kt

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 06Z分析升至T4.0

TXPZ24 KNES 090625
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  09/0600Z
C.  16.5N
D.  105.8W
E.  ONE/GOES-E
F.  T4.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
AND EMBEDDED IN LG FOR A DT=4.5 AFTER SUBTRACTING 0.5 FOR AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. MET=3.0 PT=3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...FISHER

红豆棒冰冰

稍早前ASCAT风场扫描

pocketbox

WTPZ42 KNHC 090846
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Barbara Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has become a bit better organized over the past 6 hours
with a large central dense overcast and an increasing area of
cloud tops in the -75C to -85C range.  The latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55-65 kt, and the latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 46-68 kt.  
Based on the improved banding and cold cloud tops, as well as the
persistence of this organization, the initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt for this advisory.

There is some uncertainty in the initial position since there have
been no recent available microwave passes, but the best motion
estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 10 kt.  The
global models show a strong 500 mb ridge to the north of Barbara,
which should help maintain Barbara on a general path toward the
west-northwest for the next few days.  The GFS model continues
to be the fastest and farthest left model.  The GFS appears to
have a more realistic solution compared to the ECMWF, and was
stronger at the initialization time.  The new NHC forecast is
slightly faster and a bit to the left of the previous official
forecast and is in fairly good agreement with an average of the
simple and corrected consensus models.

Barbara only has about 12 more hours to strengthen before it starts
moving into cooler waters.  This should be enough time for Barbara
to strengthen to a hurricane.  The cooler water should cause
weakening to begin tonight or on Tuesday.  The dynamical hurricane
models and global models all show Barbara weakening below tropical
storm strength by 48 hours, and the cyclone is likely to lose its
convection and become a remnant low around that time.  The new NHC
forecast shows a faster weakening and quicker dissipation than the
previous official forecast since the dynamical guidance is now in
good agreement on this scenario.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 16.9N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 17.6N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 18.8N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 19.8N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  11/0600Z 20.3N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  11/1800Z 20.5N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 09 日 18 时
“芭芭拉”向西北方向移动

时        间:    9日14时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “芭芭拉”，BARBARA

中心位置:    西经105.6度, 北纬16.6度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    994百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥格雷罗州阿卡普尔科偏西方向约600公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，强度逐渐增强

预报结论:    “芭芭拉”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月9日14时00分）

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 12Z分析降至T3.0/4.0，NRL显示升至65KT

02E BARBARA 250609 1200 17.3N 105.8W EPAC 65 991

TXPZ24 KNES 091236
TCSENP
A.  02E (BARBARA)
B.  09/1200Z
C.  17.1N
D.  106.0W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.0/4.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/PRXY
H.  REMARKS...7/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. THE MET IS 1.0 AND THE
PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

yhh

WTPZ42 KNHC 091437
TCDEP2

Hurricane Barbara Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Barbara has become better organized as depicted in an earlier AMSR2
microwave pass, which shows the low-level center tucked under a
large central dense overcast. The microwave imagery also indicates
that a partial eyewall has formed, although it was open on the
northern side. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
T4.0/65 kt, and the objective satellite intensity aids from UW-CIMSS
range from 55-65 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial
intensity is increased to 65 kt for this advisory. This makes
Barbara the first hurricane of the 2025 east Pacific hurricane
season.

The storm is estimated to be moving more northwestward at 310/9 kt.
Barbara continues to be steered by a mid-level ridge located over
Mexico and it should continue to move northwestward over the next
few days. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to be on opposite sides
of the guidance envelope, and this is mainly due to differences in
when Barbara weakens and becomes steered by the low-level wind flow.
The latest NHC track forecast was shifted slightly to the right,
closer to the simple and corrected consensus.

Barbara is likely near its peak intensity, as it only has about 6-12
more hours of a favorable environment. Along the forecast track, the
system will be crossing over increasingly cooler sea surface
temperatures overnight. Around the same time, the mid-level relative
humidity values will begin to drop. This will cause the system to
steadily weaken and lose convective organization. The storm is now
forecast to become post-tropical in 36 h, and dissipate into an open
trough by 60 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 17.6N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 18.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 19.6N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 20.8N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H  11/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间SAR扫到66kt