墨西哥西南热带风暴“科斯梅”(03E.Cosme) - 远期与02E藤原

yhh

WTPZ43 KNHC 091437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme continues to become better organized this morning, with a
recent 0936Z/GPM pass indicating a partially closed eyewall
structure. The most recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T3.5/55 kt. Meanwhile, the objective
satellite estimates range from 48 to 61 knots. Given the improved
structure noted in microwave imagery, along with a blend of the
objective and subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity
for this advisory has been increased to 55 kt.

Cosme is moving toward the west-northwest at 6 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and a
slowing in forward speed is expected tonight, as Barbara erodes the
mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme. A turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast
Tuesday through Wednesday as Cosme is swept northward into the break
in the mid-level ridge created by Barbara. The latest track forecast
is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a
blend of the consensus guidance.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening
during the next 12 hours or so. Vertical wind shear is forecast to
decrease, while water temperatures hold around 27/28C, and deep
layer atmospheric moisture remains high. As a result, the official
forecast calls for Cosme to become a hurricane later today. Little
change in strength is then forecast tonight and Tuesday despite
Cosme remaining over warm water, as increasing vertical wind shear
and gradually decreasing deep-layer moisture should inhibit further
intensification. Beginning Tuesday night and Wednesday, a more rapid
weakening is forecast as the system moves over much cooler water,
with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 14.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/1200Z 15.2N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  11/1200Z 17.0N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  12/0000Z 18.5N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/1200Z 19.6N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间SAR扫到69kt

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析维持T3.5

TXPZ25 KNES 091841
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  09/1800Z
C.  14.4N
D.  114.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/PRXY/VIS
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 AND
THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO THE BANDING PATTERN
BEING IRREGULAR.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 092031
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
200 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme continues to intensify and is nearing hurricane strength.
Visible satellite images show that the convective bands have
consolidated near the center, and there is some evidence of a
partial inner core. A blend of the latest objective and subjective
satellite intensity estimates support increasing the initial
intensity to 60 kt. A partial ASCAT pass indicates that the
wind field of Cosme is quite compact, and the initial wind radii
have been updated based on that data.

Some additional strengthening is possible in the short term, and
Cosme could become a hurricane tonight while it remains in
generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the
combination of decreasing SSTs and intrusions of dry/stable air
should end the strengthening trend by early Tuesday and then cause a
quick weakening. Simulated satellite images from the GFS and ECMWF
models show deep convection vanishing by Wednesday, and based on
that guidance, the transition to a remnant low has been moved up to
48 hours. Dissipation is likely to occur in 3 to 4 days.

The storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt, and this general motion
should continue through tonight. After that time, a turn to the
north or north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves toward a
weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast.  The
NHC track forecast is in fair agreement with the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 15.0N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 15.3N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/1800Z 15.8N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  11/0600Z 16.6N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  11/1800Z 17.8N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H  12/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  12/1800Z 20.1N 113.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

理可的呆萌呆毛

18z左右曾經嘗試開雲卷眼，不過現在應該開始冷崩了

红豆棒冰冰

今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析维持T3.5

TXPZ25 KNES 100015
TCSENP
A.  03E (COSME)
B.  09/2330Z
C.  14.7N
D.  114.1W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET AND PT
AGREE. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...BERTALAN

ygsj24

854
WTPZ43 KNHC 100231
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032025
800 PM MST Mon Jun 09 2025

Cosme remains at the threshold of hurricane strength.  Convection
continues to be potent south and east of the center, though it is
weak on the northwestern side.  Unfortunately there haven't been any
recent microwave passes to assess the inner-core structure.  Since
the latest blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates remains near 60 kt, that value will be kept as the
initial wind speed.  

Cosme is moving along a thermal ridge in the SSTs, and it still
could become a hurricane overnight before reaching less favorable
conditions tomorrow morning.  Steady or rapid weakening is probable
by late Tuesday due to a combination of decreasing SSTs and
intrusions of dry/stable air.  The tropical cyclone should lose all
convection early on Wednesday and become a remnant low between 36
and 48 h.  No significant changes were made on this advisory to the
intensity forecast.

The storm has slowed down, only moving northwestward at 3 kt, and
this general motion should continue through tonight. After that
time, a turn to the north-northeast is expected as Cosme moves
toward a weakness left behind by Hurricane Barbara to its northeast.
The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
near or a smidge left of the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 15.2N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  11/0000Z 15.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  11/1200Z 16.9N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  12/0000Z 18.2N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  12/1200Z 19.3N 113.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王皘  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 06 月 10 日 10 时
“科斯梅”强度逐渐减弱

时        间:    10日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “科斯梅”，COSME

中心位置:    西经114.1度, 北纬15.0度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:   11级，30米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    992百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角西南方向约990公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“科斯梅”强度由8级逐渐增强为11级

预报结论:    “科斯梅”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向偏北转东北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年6月10日09时30分）

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午SAR扫到63kt