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JTWC/25W/#43/09-29 00Z Final Warning
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-9-29 09:50 编辑
WTPN33 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 42.4N 172.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 28 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 42.4N 172.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 44.6N 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 45.3N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 42.9N 173.9E.
29SEP25. TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1417 NM
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TYPHOON 25W HAS PUT ON AN AMAZING SHOW OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IT IS TIME TO TURN OFF THE LIGHTS, THE PARTY
IS OVER. JUST IN THE LAST SIX TO EIGHT HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
REMARKABLY, GOING FROM A FULLY COUPLED VORTEX WITH A 20NM WIDE EYE,
TO A RAPIDLY DECOUPLING VORTEX AND CLEAR FRONTOGENESIS. A 282257Z
ASCAT-C PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), WITH A VERY SHARP WARM FRONTAL REGION EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND A MORE DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE SCATTEROMETER WERE PEGGED AT 65 KNOTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, LIKELY REFLECTING THE
PRESENCE OF A STING JET IN THAT REGION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES, AS WELL AS
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES BETWEEN 77-88 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO A STORM
FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT PASSES SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
290000Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 38
FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 26W (BUALOI) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
//
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-9-29 06:22
发表于 2025-9-29 09:10
