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JTWC/25W/#40/09-28 06Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN33 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 35.8N 164.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 110 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 893 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 44 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A NEARLY
PERFECTLY ROUND EYE FEATURE OF TYPHOON (TY) 25W (NEOGURI) AS IT IS
ACCELERATING ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. DESPITE ITS CURRENT MID-
LATITUDE POSITION, THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AT AN
IMPRESSIVE RATE OF 40 KTS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT, IT NOW
FEATURES A NEARLY SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE CANOPY, SURROUNDING THE 20
NM WIDE EYE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, THE LAST
MOMENTS OF MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDE BORDERLINE (26-27
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET HOWEVER
BY SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 20-25 KTS, AS WELL AS DRY AIR PRESSING OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EASILY IDENTIFIABLE EYE FEATURE,
WHILE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
RJTD: T6.0 - 115 KTS
RCTP: T5.5 - 102 KTS
KNES: T6.0 - 115 KTS
CIMSS SATCON: 102 KTS AT 280200Z
CIMSS ADT: 109 KTS AT 280530Z
CIMSS AIDT: 108 KTS AT 280530Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 97 KTS AT 280200Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 102 KTS AT 280700Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING,
WHILE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO
THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE, IT IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DECAPITATION AND QUICK SHALLOWING OF THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UNTIL THEN, TY NEOGURI STILL
HAS A FEW HOURS TO REACH A SHORT-LIVED PEAK SLIGHTLY BEYOND
CURRENTLY ASSESSED 110 KTS. AFTER THAT, ONSET OF AFOREMENTIONED
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, AMPLIFIED BY SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST WILL ALL RESULT IN RAPID DETERIORATION
OF TY 25W, PAIRED WITH SIMULTANEOUS AND QUICK COMPLETION OF THE ETT
BY TAU 24.
MODEL DISCUSSION: BOTH NUMERICAL TRACK AND INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST. TRACK
ASSESSMENT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE
INTENSITY PREDICTION IS PLACED CLOSE TO THAT OF HAFS-A, WHICH IS ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SPREAD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-9-28 17:20
发表于 2025-9-28 17:27
