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JTWC/25W/#37/09-27 12Z Prognostic Reasoning
WDPN33 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 32.3N 158.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 548 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI
SHIMA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RECENTLY DEVELOPED RAGGED EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON (TY)
25W (NEOGURI). DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, IT HAS MANAGED TO CONSOLIDATE, WHILE
DEVELOPING AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), BORDERLINE (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC,
ALBEIT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SINCE LAST FORECAST, AS SEEN IN A
271058Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE VORTEX IS MAINTAINING A MOIST CORE
DESPITE ENCROACHING DRY AIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
DVORAK FIXES, SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY AIDS FINALLY
CATCHING UP TO THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, PARTICULARLY DPRINT AND
DMINT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: A 271058Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 271130Z
CIMSS AIDT: 46 KTS AT 271130Z
CIMSS D-MINT: 65 KTS AT 271130Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 68 KTS AT 271200Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AROUND TAU 24, TY NEOGURI IS
FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SSTS (23-24 C), ALONG
WITH INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AS IT ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE
RIDGE AND ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE ETT IS FORECAST TO BE
COMPLETED BY TAU 36. COLD SSTS, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND INCREASED
VWS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
OF 55 NM AT TAU 36. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS,
WITH JUST THE COAMPS-TC ENSEMBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION AID
INDICATING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY (105 KTS) THAN THE
GUIDANCE AVERAGE. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH PEAK OF 85
KTS REACHED AROUND TAU 24.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2025-9-27 21:04
发表于 2025-9-27 23:00
