中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Overnight satellite-derived surface wind data indicated that the
system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula does not have a well-defined
surface circulation.  Shower and thunderstorm activity is producing
winds below gale force and remains displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure.  This system, however, could still become a
short-lived tropical depression before it encounters progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, stable airmass over
the weekend, which will inhibit any further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to latter
part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Bucci

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is producing
limited showers and thunderstorms well to the west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands.  Although dry air should prevent any significant
development over the next day or two, environmental conditions
should gradually become more favorable for development by the middle
to latter part of this week, and a tropical depression could form
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



2. East of the Windward Islands:
A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing scattered disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive
for slow development over the next several days as the wave moves
quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the
latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and
turn more northwestward to the north of Hispaniola.  Regardless of
development, gusty winds and showers are expected for portions of
the Leeward Islands Monday night and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands has increased since yesterday.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



2. East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas.  Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands show some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Wednesday or
Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



2. East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the Leeward Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development over the
next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.  By the latter part of this
week, the system is expected to slow down and turn northwestward,
and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system
is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas.  
Regardless of development, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and  
Tuesday and near Puerto Rico late Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Narda, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Well Southwest of the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico remain disorganized.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development of this system through early to mid next week while it
moves west-southwestward and then westward.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Gibbs

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Narda, located well to the west of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles offshore of southwest Mexico is beginning to
become better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development during the next few days and a
tropical cyclone is likely to form by the middle of the week. The
system is forecast to drift westward for the next day or two, then
turn west-northwestward after that time.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



2. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the southwest
coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the system
next weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Gibbs

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
An area of disturbed weather associated with a sharp trough of low
pressure is located several hundred miles offshore of southwest
Mexico and continues to show signs of organization, with earlier
satellite wind data indicating the surface circulation was better
defined than earlier. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in
the next day or so. The system is forecast to drift westward into
Tuesday, then turn west-northwestward thereafter, remaining over the
open waters of the central to western part of the Eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Just South of of the Baja California Peninsula:
A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a small, but concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated there was a weak surface circulation. Some additional
development is possible over the next day or two before it merges
with a larger area of disturbed weather, (EP98), to its southwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
Another area of low pressure is expected to develop off the
southwest coast of Mexico near the end of the week. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
of the system thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the
early portion of next week as the system moves generally
west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Papin

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure far to the south of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula have increased some during the past several hours.
Environmental conditions remain favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next
day or so as the low drifts slowly northwestward well off the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula have decreased considerably during the
past few hours.  Development of this system is no longer expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



3. Near the Southwest Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to develop off the coast of
southwestern Mexico late this week.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for additional development of the system
thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
as the system moves generally west-northwestward, just offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Jelsema

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the coast of
southwestern Mexico in a couple of days. Thereafter, environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression will likely form late this week or this
weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Public Advisories on Octave are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Octave are issued under WMO header WTPZ25
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

Forecaster Jelsema