斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 06 日 10 时
“韦亚努”于昨天夜间在南太平洋生成

时  间: 6日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬15.6度，东经173.1度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 975百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西北方向约630公里

变化过程: “韦亚努”于昨天夜间生成

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日08时00分）

“迈拉”移速缓慢

时  间: 6日08时

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.6度，东经154.6度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 974百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1260公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由10级加强为12级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时4公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日08时00分）

“茵杜萨”变性为温带气旋

“茵杜萨”已于昨天（5日）夜间变性为温带气旋，中央气象台停止对其监视。（这是关于“茵杜萨”的最后一期监测公报）

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060810 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 173.3E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH BLACK SURROUND AND LIGHT GREY EYE YEILDING
DT=5.0, PT=4.5 MET=3.5. FT BASED ON PT. THUS, YEILDING
T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 16.9S 174.0E MOV SE AT 11KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.0S 174.8E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.4S 175.8E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.9S 176.9E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 am April 6	3	16.0S	173.3E	110
+6hr	12 pm April 6	3	16.4S	173.6E	140
+12hr	6 pm April 6	3	16.9S	174.0E	165
+18hr	12 am April 7	3	17.3S	174.3E	195
+24hr	6 am April 7	3	18.0S	174.8E	220
+36hr	6 pm April 7	3	19.4S	175.8E	280
+48hr	6 am April 8	3	20.9S	176.9E	345
+60hr	6 pm April 8	2	22.3S	178.0E	430
+72hr	6 am April 9	2	23.5S	178.7E	520

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060830 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 173.3E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH BLACK SURROUND AND LIGHT GREY EYE YEILDING
DT=5.0, PT=4.5 MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING
T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 16.9S 174.0E MOV SE AT 11KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.0S 174.8E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.4S 175.8E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.9S 176.9E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400UTC.

---

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060926 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 960HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.0S 173.3E AT 060600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH BLACK SURROUND AND LIGHT GREY EYE YEILDING
DT=5.0, PT=4.5 MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING
T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 16.9S 174.0E MOV SE AT 11KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.0S 174.8E MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 80
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.4S 175.8E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 20.9S 176.9E MOV SE AT 17 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 061400UTC.

ygsj24

WTPS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 173.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 173.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 17.2S 174.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 18.9S 175.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 20.8S 176.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 22.6S 178.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 25.8S 179.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.7S 179.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 32.2S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 173.8E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS
964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 060900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING
   
4. NR 004//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.1S 173.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT
    
18. BALL OF SYMMETRICAL, VIGOROUS CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT INNER
    
19. CORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE STORM
    
20. IS MAKING ANOTHER RUN AT FORMING AN EYE, BUT AS WITH PREVIOUS
    
21. ATTEMPTS, AN EYE HAS YET TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR. THE
    
22. INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WARM
    
23. SPOT IN THE EIR (USING THE BD ENHANCEMENT CURVE), WHICH TURNS OUT
    
24. TO BE RATHER TRANSIENT, HAVING ALREADY DISAPPEARED FROM THE
    
25. IMAGERY. UNFORTUNATELY, A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    
26. PRECLUDES A HIGHER CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
27. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
    
28. INTENSITY ESTIMATE, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE CIMSS D-MINT FROM A
    
29. COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. THE KNES DVORAK FIX IS LIKELY TOO HIGH AS THEY
    
30. WERE USING THE EYE TECHNIQUE ON THE TRANSIENT EYE FEATURE, WHILE
    
31. PGTW DID NOT. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM IS STEADILY INTENSIFYING,
    
32. UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VWS,
    
33. WARM SSTS, MODERATE OHC AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
38. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF SAMOA.
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
42.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS SATCON: 78 KTS AT 060540Z
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 060610Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 060610Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 90 KTS AT 060228Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 98 KTS AT 060610Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
51.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) WILL TRACK
    
65. STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTWARDS THROUGH TAU 96, ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF
    
66. A LARGE, STRONG AND VERY PERSISTENT STR POSITIONED SOUTH OF SAMOA.
    
67. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF
    
68. TC 31P WILL BUILD THE RIDGE EVEN MORE, RESULTING IN A VERY STRONG
    
69. RIDGE THAT BUILDS POLEWARD, ULTIMATELY REACHING WELL PAST 40S
    
70. LATITUDE. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS (200MB), A REX BLOCK DEVELOPS BETWEEN
    
71. NEW ZEALAND AND FIJI AFTER TAU 96. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
    
72. WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TRACK SHIFT AFTER TAU 72, WITH TC 31P
    
73. TURNING ONTO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
    
74. PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 31P IS FORECAST
    
75. TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AT A RATE JUST SHY OF THE RAPID
    
76. INTENSIFICATION (RI) THRESHOLD, UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
    
77. CONDITIONS. SHEAR WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER TAU 24, WITH THE
    
78. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION CLOSING AFTER TAU 36. THE
    
79. SYSTEM WEAKENS SLOWLY AT FIRST AS SHEAR BEGINS TO TILT THE VORTEX.
    
80. BY TAU 60, TC 31P CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM AND MOVES INTO COOLER
    
81. WATERS, AND SIMULTANEOUSLY SUCCUMBS TO DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
    
82. ENTRAINMENT AND WEAKENS MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH TAU 96. AROUND TAU 72
    
83. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CROSSES POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH
    
84. MARKS THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE REX BLOCK AND MOVES INTO A REGION
    
85. OF MUCH LIGHTER UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. WHILE WATERS WILL BE VERY COOL
    
86. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM BEGINS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
    
87. LOW (ETT), BY TAU 72. A MORE APPROPRIATE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE
    
88. SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72 WOULD BE A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM, WITH
    
89. CHARACTERISTICS OF BOTH A MID-LATITUDE LOW AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
    
90. NOT FALLING NEATLY INTO EITHER CATEGORY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
    
91. RETAIN ITS WARM CORE AND WHILE IT SHALLOWS OUT AFTER TAU 48, ONCE
    
92. IT CROSSES UNDER THE REX BLOCK, THE VORTEX DEEPENS ONCE MORE AND
    
93. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY AFTER TAU 96.
    
94. 
    
95. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT CROSS-TRACK
    
96. AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS
    
97. CONFINED TO A 100NM WIDE ENVELOPE AT THAT POINT IN TIME.
    
98. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SHARPLY AFTER TAU 48 HOWEVER,
    
99. INCREASING TO 175NM AT TAU 72, BETWEEN THE VERY SLOW EGRR AND
    
100. GALWEM AND THE FASTER AI MODELS. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD
     
101. AFTER TAU 96, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY, UP TO
     
102. 355NM BY TAU 120. EGRR MARKS THE INSIDE OR WESTERN EDGE OF THE
     
103. ENVELOPE, AND THE EC-AIFS MAKS THE EASTERN EDGE. SURPRISINGLY,
     
104. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD DECREASES TO LESS THAN 100NM DURING THIS SAME
     
105. TIMEFRAME. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
     
106. THROUGH TAU 72, THEN THE AI MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
     
107. FORECAST, HUGGING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
     
108. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH TO TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
     
109. GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT TC 31P WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING
     
110. THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT VARY ON THE AMOUNT. SEVERAL RI AIDS
     
111. INCLUDING RIPA AND FRIA ARE TRIGGERED, REACHING A PEAK OF 130KTS IN
     
112. SOME CASES, WHILE RIPA AND FRIA PEAK AT 110 KNOTS. HWRF AND HAFS-A
     
113. ARE SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE, REACHING A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AND THE
     
114. REMAINDER OF THE AI GUIDANCE HOVERING AROUND 100 KNOTS. ALL MODELS
     
115. RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND TAU 36 AND DEPICT A STEADY OR FLAT
     
116. INTENSITY TREND AFTER TAU 96.
     
117. 
     
118. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
119.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
120.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
121.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
122.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
123. NNNN

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pocketbox

Information Number 5 on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards
Department, Port Vila at 6:08pm VUT Monday 6 April 2026.

At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Cyclone VAIANU CAT 2 (984 hPa) was located at 16.0S 173.4E.
The Tropical Cyclone is positioned at the bottom center of square letter N, number 6 (N, 6) of the
Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 560 KM east of the Pentecost group. The system
is slow moving in the southeasterly direction at the speed of 11 KM/HR in the past 12hours. The
potential for Tropical Cyclone VAIANU to move towards the Vanuatu group is low.

Destructive storm force winds of 90KM/HR (50KTS), gusting to 110KM/HR(60KTS) at about 25 to 30
nautical mile from the centre of the cyclone.

Gale force winds of 87 KM/HR (47 knots) with gusting to 105KM/HR (55 knots)are expected at about
40 to 100 nautical mile from the centre of the cyclone.  

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 6 Apr)           16.4S, 173.8E            50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 7 Apr)            17.0S, 174.2E            60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 7 Apr)           17.6S, 174.7E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)            18.4S, 175.2E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 8 Apr)            20.0S, 176.3E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 8 Apr)            21.6S, 177.5E            60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 9 Apr)            23.1S, 178.6E            50 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 9 Apr)            24.5S, 179.3E            40 KTS (110 KM/HR)

Currently Tropical Cyclone VAIANU does not pose much threat to the islands of Vanuatu.
Isolated passing showers of rain may be experience over parts of the group.

Seas will become rough to very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells expected within
100 nautical mile from the centre of the system. Moderate, heavy to very heavy swells are
expected on the coastal waters of the east and south side of all the islands of Vanuatu.

A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of the Channel and Southern
waters of Vanuatu. Please refer to Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

People are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets to get the latest information on this system.

The next information on the system will be issued at 6:00am tomorrow morning.
  
This bulletin is available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ and its facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/. You can also obtain this information by dialling VMGD'S
free toll number 116.

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm April 6	2	16.0S	173.4E	95
+6hr	11 pm April 6	2	16.4S	173.8E	95
+12hr	5 am April 7	2	17.0S	174.2E	95
+18hr	11 am April 7	3	17.6S	174.7E	95
+24hr	5 pm April 7	3	18.4S	175.2E	110
+36hr	5 am April 8	3	20.0S	176.3E	110
+48hr	5 pm April 8	2	21.6S	177.5E	130
+60hr	5 am April 9	2	23.1S	178.6E	150
+72hr	5 pm April 9	1	24.5S	179.3E	150

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：张怡驰、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2026 年 04 月 06 日 18 时
“韦亚努”向南偏东方向移动

时  间: 6日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 南太平洋

命  名: “韦亚努”，VAIANU

中心位置: 南纬16.0度，东经173.3度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 11级，31米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 960百帕

参考位置: 距离斐济苏瓦西北方向约588公里

变化过程: 过去18小时，“韦亚努”由8级加强为11级

预报结论: 预计，“韦亚努”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向南偏东方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日14时00分）

“迈拉”向东南方向移动

时  间: 6日14时

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “迈拉”，MAILA

中心位置: 南纬9.9度，东经155.2度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 12级，36米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 968百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州凯恩斯东北方向约1290公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“迈拉”由10级加强为12级

预报结论: 预计，“迈拉”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图2  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年4月6日14时00分）

pocketbox

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 061353 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 173.8E AT 061200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
VAIANU IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH W EYE, SURROUNDED IN
W AND CMG SURROUNDING RING YIELDS DT=5.0, MET 4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT
BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.7S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.3S 175.7E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 21.2S 176.9E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 23.0S 178.1E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062000UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm April 6	3	16.4S	173.8E	95
+6hr	6 pm April 6	3	17.0S	174.2E	120
+12hr	12 am April 7	3	17.7S	174.7E	150
+18hr	6 am April 7	3	18.4S	175.1E	175
+24hr	12 pm April 7	3	19.3S	175.7E	205
+36hr	12 am April 8	3	21.2S	176.9E	265
+48hr	12 pm April 8	3	23.0S	178.1E	325
+60hr	12 am April 9	2	24.5S	179.0E	410
+72hr	12 pm April 9	2	25.6S	179.5E	500

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A08 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 061402 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 950HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 173.8E AT 061200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TROPICAL CYCLONE
VAIANU IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH W EYE, SURROUNDED IN
W AND CMG SURROUNDING RING YIELDS DT=5.0, MET 4.5 AND PT=5.0. FT
BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.7S 174.7E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.3S 175.7E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 21.2S 176.9E MOV SSE AT 09KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 23.0S 178.1E MOV SSE AT 10KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062000UTC.

pocketbox

WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 005   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 173.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 173.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.9S 174.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 19.8S 175.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 21.8S 177.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 23.6S 178.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 26.3S 179.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 28.9S 178.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 32.0S 176.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 174.1E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS
959 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 061500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING
   
4. NR 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.5S 173.8E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 280 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. COMPACT SYSTEM, WITH A SYMMETRICAL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION ARRAYED
    
19. AROUND A NASCENT PINHOLE EYE. THE STRONGEST OF THE CONVECTION IS
    
20. ARRAYED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION,
    
21. CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KNOTS OF SHEAR COMING DOWN ON THE SYSTEM
    
22. FROM THE NORTH. VORTICAL HOT TOWERS (VHTS) CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING
    
23. ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE NASCENT EYE FEATURE, WHICH HAS BEEN
    
24. A PERSISTENT FEATURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT DUE TO THE
    
25. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR, THEY ARE FAILING TO WRAP UPSHEAR AND
    
26. THUS THE EYE HAS BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL IN FULLY EMERGING. A 061125Z GMI
    
27. COLOR-ENHANCED 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALED A WELL-FORMED, HIGHLY
    
28. SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE, WITH STRONG CONVECTION ON THE
    
29. SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANKS, WHILE ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IS
    
30. PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
31. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
    
32. THE GMI PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
33. CONFIDENCE USING A BLEND OF THE AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ALONG
    
34. WITH PERSISTENCE WITH AN EARLIER SAR PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    
35. REMAIN FAVORABLE IN GENERAL, WITH LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, WARM SSTS
    
36. AND VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
    
37. 
    
38. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA.  
    
39. 
    
40. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
41. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR SAMOA.
    
42. 
    
43. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
44.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
    
45.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
46.    PHFO: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
47.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 061200Z
    
48.    CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 061200Z
    
49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 88 KTS AT 061200Z
    
50. 
    
51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
52.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
53.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
54.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
55.    OTHER FACTORS: MODERATE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY SHEAR.
    
56. 
    
57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
61. 
    
62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
63. 
    
64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
65. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
66. 
    
67. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) APPEARS TO
    
68. HAVE FINALLY ACHIEVED VORTEX ALIGNMENT, AND AFTER A PERIOD OF
    
69. RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD SPEED, HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE
    
70. SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRAIGHT SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE WESTERN
    
71. FLANK OF THE DEEP STR NEAR SAMOA, IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 72
    
72. HOURS. BY TAU 72, TC 31P PASSES UNDER THE AXIS OF A STRENGTHENING
    
73. SUBTROPICAL JET MAX AND BEGINS TO BE BOTH PULLED IN TOWARDS A 200MB
    
74. TROUGH, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY BEING PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
    
75. WESTERN SIDE OF A RAPIDLY BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST WHICH BUILDS
    
76. POLEWARD TO 40S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, TC 31P WILL BE
    
77. TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND.
    
78. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM HAS ANOTHER 24 HOURS WORTH OF
    
79. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE WIND SHEAR INCREASES
    
80. SHARPLY. ANTICIPATING AN EYE TO DEVELOP IN THE NEAR-TERM, THE
    
81. FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS
    
82. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN UNDER
    
83. THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
    
84. 26C ISOTHERM AROUND TAU 60. ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AXIS OF THE
    
85. SUBTROPICAL JET, IT MOVES INTO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE (UNDER AN
    
86. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR LOW) OF A LARGE REX BLOCK THAT DEVELOPS
    
87. BETWEEN FIJI AND NEW ZEALAND. AT THIS POINT, SSTS WILL BE IN THE
    
88. 22-24C RANGE. HOWEVER, ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
    
89. RETAIN ITS WARM CORE AND REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST THROUGH A DEEP
    
90. LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THOUGH UNDER A COLD 200MB LOW, THE
    
91. FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BEGINNING AT TAU
    
92. 72, COMPLETING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A MORE ACCURATE
    
93. DESCRIPTION WOULD BE TO CALL THE REMNANTS OF TC 31P A HYBRID WARM
    
94. CORE CYCLONE. UNDER FAVORABLE, LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS AND WITH A WARM
    
95. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTEX UNDER A COLD LOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM COULD
    
96. IN FACT REINTENSIFY OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT UNDERGOES
    
97. TRANSITION TO A HYBRID CYCLONE.  
    
98. 
    
99. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
    
100. 72, WITH MINIMAL (LESS THAN 75NM) CROSS-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THIS
     
101. POINT IN THE FORECAST. ALONG-TRACK SPREAD REMAINS A PERSISTENT
     
102. ISSUE EVEN AS EARLY AS TAU 48, WITH THE FASTEST AI MODELS OPENING
     
103. UP A LEAD OVER THE EGRR AND GALWEM OF 200NM BY TAU 72. AS THE
     
104. SYSTEM TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD, CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO 315NM,
     
105. BETWEEN THE EGRR-GALWEM PAIR ON THE WEST EDGE AND THE AI MODEL
     
106. GROUPING ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE ALONG-TRACK
     
107. SPREAD DECREASES TO BASICALLY ZERO. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
     
108. NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
     
109. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU
     
110. 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MODELS
     
111. EXCEPT THE HWRF INDICATING ABOUT 5-15 KNOTS OF INTENSIFICATION
     
112. THROUGH TAU 24 THEN SHARP WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. MOST OF THE
     
113. GUIDANCE DEPICTS EITHER SLOW WEAKENING OR STEADY INTENSITY FROM
     
114. TAU 84 TO 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE HAFS-A GUIDANCE
     
115. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
116. 
     
117. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
118.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
119.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
120.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
121.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
122. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTPS11 NFFN 061800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A09 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 061954 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
17.1S 174.5E AT 061800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF DRY AIR
TRYING TO ENTER FROM THE WEST. EYE NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A
LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH B EYE, W SURROUNDING AND EYE
ADJUSTMENT -1.0 YIELDING DT=5.0, MET 5.5 AND PT=5.0. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE IT
SOUTHEAST WITH NO SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.4S 175.3E MOV SSE AT 14KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 19.9S 176.4E MOV SSE AT 16KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 21.5S 177.6E MOV SE AT 18KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 22.9S 178.5E MOV SSE AT 17KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 070200UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm April 6	3	17.1S	174.5E	110
+6hr	12 am April 7	3	17.7S	174.8E	140
+12hr	6 am April 7	3	18.4S	175.3E	165
+18hr	12 pm April 7	3	19.1S	175.8E	195
+24hr	6 pm April 7	3	19.9S	176.4E	220
+36hr	6 am April 8	3	21.5S	177.6E	280
+48hr	6 pm April 8	3	22.9S	178.5E	345
+60hr	6 am April 9	2	24.0S	179.1E	430
+72hr	6 pm April 9	2	25.0S	179.4E	520

ygsj24

WTPS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 006   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 174.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 174.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 18.8S 175.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 20.9S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 22.9S 178.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 24.6S 178.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 27.0S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 29.7S 178.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 33.7S 176.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 174.7E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

1. WDPS32 PGTW 062100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
   
4. 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.1S 174.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 95 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. FLUCTUATING INNER CORE STRUCTURE, OSCILLATING BETWEEN A RAGGED
    
19. CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING A CENTRAL EYE FEATURE AND MORE OBSCURED
    
20. SCENES WITH ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS. OVERALL, THE CYCLONE APPEARS
    
21. TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING DESPITE 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
    
22. SHEAR, WHICH HAS CAUSED WEAKNESSES IN THE NORTHERN (DOWNSHEAR-RIGHT)
    
23. SEGMENT OF THE EYEWALL IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SUCH AS THE
    
24. 061344Z AMSR-2 PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A
    
25. BLEND OF AGENCY ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES.
    
26. 
    
27. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: AMSR-2 DATA
    
28. 
    
29. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF FIJI
    
30. 
    
31. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
32.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
33.    CIMSS SATCON: 101 KTS AT 061336Z
    
34.    CIMSS ADT: 79 KTS AT 061420Z
    
35.    CIMSS AIDT: 79 KTS AT 061420Z
    
36.    CIMSS D-MINT: 96 KTS AT 061344Z
    
37.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 90 KTS AT 061720Z
    
38. 
    
39. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
40.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
41.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
42.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
43. 
    
44. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
45.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
46.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
47.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
48. 
    
49. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
50. 
    
51. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
    
52. UNDERGO SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING AROUND TAU 96, RATHER THAN
    
53. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) CONTINUES TO
    
56. TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    
57. NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
    
58. STRAIGHT FORWARD, WITH NUMERICAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT VAIANU
    
59. WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
    
60. SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
    
61. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
    
62. ACCELERATE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A SPLIT-JET PATTERN,
    
63. IN WHICH A SOUTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET WILL DELAY
    
64. ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE WILL,
    
65. HOWEVER, MOVE POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AFTER 72 HOURS, AND ITS
    
66. SUPERPOSITION BENEATH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, COUPLED WITH
    
67. COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE
    
68. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND 96 HOURS, COMPLETING BY 120 HOURS AS
    
69. 31P APPROACHES NEW ZEALAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO STRAIGHT
    
70. FORWARD, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
    
71. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHORT-TERM WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHEAR
    
72. PRESENT AND ALREADY AFFECTING THE STORM'S INNER CORE STRUCTURE. AT
    
73. ABOUT 36 HOURS, THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, CONCURRENT
    
74. WITH A DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 26 DEGREES
    
75. CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD REVERSE THE INTENSITY TREND, CAUSING WEAKENING
    
76. THEREAFTER. THIS WEAKENING IS UNLIKELY TO BE RAPID AS THE CYCLONE
    
77. MOVES BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING A
    
78. SYMMETRIC VORTEX TO PERSIST FOR MULTIPLE DAYS AS IT METHODICALLY
    
79. TRACKS POLEWARD OVER GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS. THE CYCLONE MAY
    
80. RETAIN SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT OR HIGHER WELL INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL
    
81. PHASE NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND.
    
82. 
    
83. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
    
84. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEANING A TOUCH FASTER AND EAST OF THE
    
85. PHYSICS-BASED MODELS DUE TO AI-BASED GUIDANCE. THE JTWC INTENSITY
    
86. FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, INTENSITY SPREAD
    
87. LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
    
88. 
    
89. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
90.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
91.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
93.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: HIGH//
    
94. NNNN

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Information Number 6 on Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology
and Geo-hazards Department, Port Vila at 6:00am VUT Tuesday 7 April 2026.

At 5:00am local time today, Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU CAT 3 (966 hPa) was located at
17.0S 174.4E. The Severe Tropical Cyclone is positioned at the bottom center of square
letter O, number 7 (O, 7) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 650KM
east of the Efate group. The system is moving in the southeasterly direction at the speed of
13 KM/HR in the past 12hours. The potential for Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU to move towards
the Vanuatu group is low.

Destructive storm force winds of 90KM/HR (50KTS), gusting to 110KM/HR(60KTS) at about 25 to 30
nautical mile from the centre of the cyclone.

Gale force winds of 87 KM/HR (47 knots) with gusting to 105KM/HR (55 knots)are expected at about
40 to 100 nautical mile from the centre of the cyclone.  

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 7 Apr)           17.6S, 174.8E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)            18.4S, 175.2E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 7 Apr)           19.1S, 175.7E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 8 Apr)            19.9S, 176.2E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 8 Apr)            21.5S, 177.2E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 9 Apr)            23.0S, 177.9E            70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5pm, 9 Apr)            24.2S, 178.4E            60 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5am, 10 Apr)           25.3S, 178.8E            60 KTS (130 KM/HR)

Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU does not pose any threat to the islands of Vanuatu. Isolated
passing showers of rain may be experience over parts of the group.

Seas will become rough to very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells expected within 100
nautical mile from the centre of the system. Moderate, heavy to very heavy swells are
expected over the east and sout on the eastern Vanuatu group.

A strong wind warning is current for the Channel and Southern waters of Vanuatu. Please refer
to Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

People are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets to get the latest information on this system.

This will be the final information on Severe Tropical Cyclone VAIANU. VMGD is closely
monitoring this system and would re-issue another information is the system changes
direction and move towards the Vanuatu group.
  
This bulletin is available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ and its facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/. You can also obtain this information by dialling VMGD'S
free toll number 116.

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am April 7	3	17.0S	174.4E	55
+6hr	11 am April 7	3	17.6S	174.8E	85
+12hr	5 pm April 7	3	18.4S	175.2E	110
+18hr	11 pm April 7	3	19.1S	175.7E	140
+24hr	5 am April 8	3	19.9S	176.2E	165
+36hr	5 pm April 8	3	21.5S	177.2E	225
+48hr	5 am April 9	3	23.0S	177.9E	285
+60hr	5 pm April 9	2	24.2S	178.4E	375
+72hr	5 am April 10	2	25.3S	178.8E	465