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爪哇岛东南热带低压28U(25S) - 逐渐东行，强风切阻发展

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Ragasa

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强热带风暴

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发表于 2026-3-5 04:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 Ragasa 于 2026-3-5 05:32 编辑



WTXS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 111.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 111.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 11.2S 115.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 12.7S 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 14.2S 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 15.0S 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 112.4E.
04MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
695 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

  1. WDXS31 PGTW 042100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
  4. WARNING NR 003//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 11.0S 111.4E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 695 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
  13. AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S CONTINUES TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST-
  19. NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
  20. THE NORTH, WITH FLARES OF CONVECTION BECOMING HEAVILY SHEARED
  21. WESTWARD AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
  22. IMAGERY. THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH
  23. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+ KTS), SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
  24. BETWEEN 29 C TO 30 C, AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
  25. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER
  26. 041439Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS AND ANIMATED EIR.  THE INITIAL
  27. INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
  28. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 041439Z SCATTEROMETER DATA.

  30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 041439Z SCATTEROMETER DATA

  32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
  33. TO THE NORTH

  35. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  36.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  37.    CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 041807Z
  38.    CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 041730Z
  39.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 041730Z
  40.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 041807Z
  41.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 041830Z

  43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
  44. UNFAVORABLE
  45.    VWS: 30+ KTS
  46.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  47.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

  49. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  50.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  51.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  52.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  54. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  56. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  57. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  59. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S WILL CONTINUE
  60. GENERALLY EASTWARD UNTIL TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, TC 25S WILL MAKE A
  61. GRADUAL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS ALONG THE
  62. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. INTERACTION WITH THE
  63. WIND FIELD OF A SEPARATE DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION (93S) IS
  64. STILL EXPECTED, CAUSING A SHARPER SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY
  65. STALLING WEST OF BROWSE ISLAND. TC 25S IS FORECASTED TO MARGINALLY
  66. INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO BE
  67. INHIBITED BY A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE VORTEX. DRY-AIR
  68. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL SHALLOW OUT THE SYSTEM
  69. FOLLOWING TAU 12 AND INITIATE A TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE THEREAFTER.
  70. 25S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 48, NORTHWEST OF BROOME.

  72. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONGST NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
  73. GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 80 NM AT TAU 24 AND 180 NM AT TAU 48,
  74. SHOWING A GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE FORECASTED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
  75. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS
  76. EXPECTED THROUGH THE TERMINAL WEAKENING PHASE. THE JTWC TRACK
  77. FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE
  78. FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY
  79. AGREES ON MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A
  80. WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
  81. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

  83. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  84.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
  85.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
  86. NNNN
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发表于 2026-3-5 09:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-5 09:45 编辑

IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0133 UTC 05/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 113.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: east (083 deg)
Speed of Movement: 17 knots (31 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  05/0600: 11.1S 115.3E:     035 (060):  040  (075):  996
+12:  05/1200: 11.6S 118.1E:     040 (075):  035  (065): 1000
+18:  05/1800: 12.9S 120.3E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  999
+24:  06/0000: 13.8S 121.5E:     055 (100):  035  (065):  998
+36:  06/1200: 15.0S 122.2E:     075 (135):  030  (055):  998
+48:  07/0000: 15.1S 121.8E:     105 (200):  030  (055):  998
+60:  07/1200: 15.4S 120.8E:     165 (305):  030  (055):  999
+72:  08/0000:             :              :            :     
+96:  09/0000:             :              :            :     
+120: 10/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 28U has a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
Thursday before conditions become unfavourable.

Tropical Low 28U is located using visible satellite imagery with only low to
moderate confidence, there is deep convection on the western side of the system
but the low level centre is not clearly apparent.

Intensity is set at 45 kn weighted to ASCAT.

The Dvorak cloud pattern applied was a shear pattern, the centre is within 0.5
degree of the cold cloud  DT = 3.0. MET is 1.5 using a trend of S over last 24
hours, PAT adjusted to 2.0, FT2.0 CI is left at 2.5. Overnight ASCAT at 1436
UTC showed the strongest winds are confined on the northern side of the system,
with 40-45 kts. Objective guidance at 0040 UTC ADT 34 kn, AiDT 32 kn, DPRINT 29
kn and SATCON (2100UTC) 39 kn (1-min mean).

Wind shear remains at over 30 knots from strong easterly winds aloft, but high
SSTs (28-29C), strong low level forcing and high moisture have maintained deep
convection on the western side of the low level centre. Wind shear will likely
remain high during today, with further deterioration of conditions by Friday.
However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north,
gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until
sometime Friday. During this morning, the system may develop further despite
the high wind shear but the chance of a tropical cyclone developing remains
only Moderate (20-50%). During Friday and Saturday the environment is less
favourable and 28U is likely to weaken as it approaches the WA coast.

Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then to
the south to southeast around the much larger Tropical Low 30U. The Fujiwhara
Effect may affect the motion of 28U but there remains high confidence in this
track until at least the weekend. On Saturday, some guidance maintains a weak
low close to the Kimberley coast while others indicate 28U may move west
southwest offshore from the Pilbara coast. The system is likely to dissipate by
Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/0730 UTC.
IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Thursday 5 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 8:00 am AWST near 10.9S 113.2E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 35 kilometres of 10.9 degrees South 113.2 degrees East,
estimated to be 1200 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland.
Movement: east at 31 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 28U lies well to the north of WA and is moving to the east. Gale
force winds are likely to continue on the north of the system and it has a
moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during today. Conditions
are forecast to become unfavourable and 28U is expected to weaken on Friday as
it moves southwards and interacts with Tropical Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact the Western Australia mainland as a tropical
cyclone.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Thursday 05 March.


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am March 5tropical low10.9S113.2E35
+6hr2 pm March 5tropical low11.1S115.3E60
+12hr8 pm March 5tropical low11.6S118.1E75
+18hr2 am March 6tropical low12.9S120.3E90
+24hr8 am March 6tropical low13.8S121.5E100
+36hr8 pm March 6tropical low15.0S122.2E135
+48hr8 am March 7tropical low15.1S121.8E200
+60hr8 pm March 7tropical low15.4S120.8E305
+72hr8 am March 8tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

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发表于 2026-3-5 10:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-3-5 11:40 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 10.7S 113.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 113.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 11.6S 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 12.9S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 14.2S 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 114.3E.
05MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
652 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 050300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
  4. WARNING NR 004//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 10.7S 113.3E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 652 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND,
  13. AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 19 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A QUICKLY
  19. MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH CONVECTION
  20. DISLOCATED WESTWARD OF THE SURFACE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
  21. MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+ KTS), SEA
  22. SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 C TO 29 C, AND MODERATE WESTWARD
  23. OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
  24. BASED ON AN EARLIER 042210Z RCM-1 SAR PASS AND ANIMATED MSI. THE
  25. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  26. BASED ON THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 042210Z RCM-1 SAR DATA ACCOUNTING
  27. FOR STRONG GRADIENT WESTERLY FLOW LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

  29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 042210Z SAR DATA

  31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) POSITIONED
  32. TO THE NORTH

  34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  35.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  36.    CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 042030Z
  37.    CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 042030Z
  38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 29 KTS AT 042300Z

  40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
  41. UNFAVORABLE
  42.    VWS: 30+ KTS
  43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

  46. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  47.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  48.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  49.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  51. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  53. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  54. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  56. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
  57. EASTWARD TRACK UNTIL JUST BEFORE TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, TC 25S WILL
  58. MAKE A GRADUAL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS ALONG
  59. THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE NORTH. INTERACTION WITH
  60. THE WIND FIELD OF A SEPARATE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (93S) IS
  61. STILL EXPECTED, CAUSING A SHARPER SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY
  62. STALLING THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WEST OF BROWSE ISLAND. TC 25S IS
  63. FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE
  64. CONTINUING TO BATTLE VERY STRONG AND UNFAVORABLE EASTERLY VERTICAL
  65. WIND SHEAR, TILTING THE VORTEX WESTWARD. DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT
  66. FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST IS FORECASTED TO SHALLOW OUT THE SYSTEM
  67. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, INITIATING A TERMINAL WEAKENING
  68. PHASE IN THE NEAR TERM. 25S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 36,
  69. NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DAMPIER PENINSULA.

  71. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AMONGST NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
  72. REMAINS UNDER 80 NM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SHOWING A
  73. CONTINUING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
  74. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
  75. CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
  76. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 15 KTS AT TAU 36. THE MAJORITY
  77. OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALIGNED ON STEADY SURFACE INTENSITIES THROUGH
  78. TAU 12, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE JTWC
  79. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY
  80. CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

  82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  83.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  84.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
  85. NNNN
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IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0651 UTC 05/03/2026
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 115.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: east (095 deg)
Speed of Movement: 22 knots (40 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  05/1200: 11.6S 117.9E:     030 (060):  035  (065):  995
+12:  05/1800: 12.8S 120.2E:     040 (075):  035  (065):  998
+18:  06/0000: 13.9S 121.3E:     050 (090):  035  (065):  998
+24:  06/0600: 14.8S 121.9E:     055 (100):  030  (055): 1000
+36:  06/1800: 15.7S 121.8E:     085 (155):  030  (055): 1000
+48:  07/0600: 16.2S 120.7E:     115 (210):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  07/1800: 16.5S 119.7E:     155 (290):  030  (055): 1000
+72:  08/0600:             :              :            :     
+96:  09/0600:             :              :            :     
+120: 10/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 28U has a only a small window of opportunity to develop into a
tropical cyclone Thursday or Friday before conditions become unfavourable.

Tropical Low 28U is located using visible satellite imagery with moderate to
good confidence, there is deep convection persisting on the western side of the
system but the low level centre is clearly exposed.

Intensity is set at 45 kn weighted to ASCAT.

The Dvorak cloud pattern applied was a shear pattern, the centre is within 0.5
degree of the cold cloud  DT = 3.0. MET is 1.5 using a trend of W- over last 24
hours, PAT adjusted to 2.0, FT/CI 2.0. Overnight ASCAT at 1436 UTC showed the
strongest winds are confined on the northern side of the system, with 40-45
kts, this morning's pass missed. Objective guidance at 0520 UTC ADT 35 kn, AiDT
34 kn, DPRINT 30 kn and no recent SATCON  (1-min mean).

CIMSS wind shear analysis from 00z this morning is at 39 knots and satellite
imagery confirms the system is struggling under this high shear environment.
Wind shear will likely remain high and the environment is likely to become less
favourable overnight and into Friday with dry air present around the low.
However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north,
gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until
sometime Friday. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing has been decreased
to Low for tonight and Friday. Winds around the system are forecast to decrease
below gale force during Friday and 28U is likely to weaken as it approaches the
WA coast.

Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then to
the south to southeast around the much larger Tropical Low 30U. The Fujiwhara
Effect may affect the motion of 28U but there remains high confidence in this
track until at least the weekend. On Saturday, some guidance maintains a weak
low close to the Kimberley coast while others indicate 28U may move west
southwest offshore from the Pilbara coast. The system is likely to dissipate by
Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
IDW24010
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:49 pm WST on Thursday 5 March 2026

A Tropical Low was located at 2:00 pm AWST near 10.9S 115.7E,

Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 10.9 degrees South 115.7 degrees East,
estimated to be 1090 kilometres north northwest of Port Hedland.
Movement: east at 40 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 28U lies well to the north of WA and is moving to the east. Though
28U has only a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next
24 hours gale force winds will continue on the northern side of the system
until Friday. Conditions are forecast to become more unfavourable and 28U is
expected to weaken on Friday as it moves southwards and interacts with Tropical
Low 30U.

It is not expected to impact the Western Australia mainland as a tropical
cyclone.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm March 5tropical low10.9S115.7E30
+6hr8 pm March 5tropical low11.6S117.9E60
+12hr2 am March 6tropical low12.8S120.2E75
+18hr8 am March 6tropical low13.9S121.3E90
+24hr2 pm March 6tropical low14.8S121.9E100
+36hr2 am March 7tropical low15.7S121.8E155
+48hr2 pm March 7tropical low16.2S120.7E210
+60hr2 am March 8tropical low16.5S119.7E290
+72hr2 pm March 8tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

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发表于 2026-3-5 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
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WTXS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 10.8S 115.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 115.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 12.3S 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 13.9S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 116.9E.
05MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
562 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 050900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE)
  4. WARNING
  5. NR 005//
  6. RMKS/
  7. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  8. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  10. SUMMARY:
  11.    INITIAL POSITION: 10.8S 115.9E
  12.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
  13.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 562 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 26 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A HEAVILY
  19. SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S AS IT ACCELERATES EASTWARD UNDER
  20. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVER
  21. THE LAST FEW HOURS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN REMOVED BY THE
  22. EXTREMELY HIGH (35-40 KTS), EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHILE
  23. A PERSISTENT FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT TO THE WEST
  24. OF THE FAST-PACED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DUE TO HIGH
  25. AND INCREASING TRANSLATIONAL SPEED, CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 26 KTS,
  26. THE SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE SHALLOW AND POORLY ORGANIZED.
  27. ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS WARM (28-29 C) SEA
  28. SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW, BOTH
  29. OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS ARE NEARLY
  30. EXCLUSIVELY CONTAINED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTWARD QUADRANT DUE TO
  31. CONVERGING GRADIENT FLOW. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
  32. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC PRESENT IN THE MSI, WHILE
  33. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  34. BASED ON A 050445Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS SHOWING MAINLY 35 KTS, WITH
  35. SOME HIGHER VALUES PRESENT DUE TO CONVECTIVE CONTAMINATION.

  37. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 050609Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 PASS

  39. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) CENTERED TO
  40. THE NORTH

  42. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  43.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  44.    CIMSS SATCON: 41 KTS AT 050551Z
  45.    CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 050530Z
  46.    CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 050530Z
  47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 31 KTS AT 050551Z
  48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 050630Z

  50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
  51.    VWS: 30+ KTS
  52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
  53.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

  55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
  58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 25S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
  66. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NER TO THE NORTH AND ITS EXTENSION TO THE
  67. NORTHEAST, WHILE EVENTUALLY INTERACTING WITH THE WIND FIELD OF ANOTHER
  68. TROPICAL CYCLONE (INVEST 93S) DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 450 NM TO
  69. THE SOUTHEAST. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS AN
  70. EVEN MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VWS VALUES REACHING BEYOND 50
  71. KTS. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FROM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL ULTIMATELY
  72. RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND FULL DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
  73. 24.

  75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
  76. AGREEMENT WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 30 NM AT TAU 12, EXPANDING TO
  77. A 100 NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. GALWEM AND UKMET ARE CURRENTLY
  78. THE ONLY OUTLIERS CONTRIBUTING TO A SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPREAD AT
  79. TAU 24, PROJECTING A WIDER SOUTHWARD TURN, CLOSER TO BROWSE ISLAND,
  80. AUSTRALIA. ALL REMAINING CONSENSUS MODELS ARE ALIGNED WITHIN 30-40
  81. NM THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. IN REGARD TO INTENSITY,
  82. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REFLECTS A STEEP WEAKENING TREND RESULTING
  83. IN DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS.

  85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  87.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
  88. NNNN
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发表于 2026-3-5 22:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-5 22:15 编辑



WTXS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 11.9S 118.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 31 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 118.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 13.8S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 119.6E.
05MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
408 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ACCELERATING AND
HEAVILY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST FEW HOURS, VERY HIGH
(30+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ERODED ALL OF WHAT REMAINED
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THOSE EFFECTS ARE FURTHER AMPLIFIED BY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH. WHILE
RESIDUAL, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS PERSIST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM, RAPIDLY INCREASING TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND OVERALL
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WILL INDUCE CONTINUOUS WEAKENING, RESULTING IN
FULL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

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