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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-2-21 21:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 73.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 73.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.9S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.1S 68.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 19.2S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.6S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 27.2S 65.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 31.2S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 72.9E. 21FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S
(HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 210600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
212100Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 210900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING
- NR 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 16.6S 73.4E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 572 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
- EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC),
- WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER ROTATION. BROADER
- ROTATION. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED; HOWEVER, IT
- REMAINS DISPLACED SUBSTANTIALLY WEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO MODERATE TO
- STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-
- LEVEL AIR INTO THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. A 210413Z MHS
- 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES ENCIRCLING
- THE MAJORITY OF THE LLCC, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED IN
- THE WESTERN SECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE, PLACED WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE CENTROID OF THE MULTIPLE
- VORTICES EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED MSI. A 210337Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS
- DETECTED 30-34 KNOT WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
- CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE, WITH
- WARM SSTS AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT COUNTERACTED BY
- MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 210600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 210600Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 210600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: HIGHER MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
- ENTRAINMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HORACIO) IS
- FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP
- STR POSITIONED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
- AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT
- TRAVERSES THE NORTHWESTERN AND THEN WESTERN ASPECT OF THE STR. TC 22S
- WILL REACH THE RIDGE AXIS BY APPROXIMATELY TAU 72, THEN ACCELERATE
- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
- BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. REGARDING
- INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STEADY FOR THE
- NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AS SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE
- LEVELS AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INTRUDE INTO THE CORE
- OF THE SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 24, SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
- TO DECREASE, WHICH WILL FACILITATE VORTEX ALIGNMENT AND
- SYMMETRIZATION. ONCE THESE PROCESSES COMPLETE, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36,
- TC 22S WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT TAPS INTO A STRONG
- POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
- INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS AND
- BEGINS ITS TURN SOUTHWARD. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
- FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INCREASE, WITH VORTEX DECOUPLING ANTICIPATED BY
- TAU 96. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
- WITH A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, BECOME COMPLETELY ENVELOPED BY DRY
- AIR ABOVE 700MB AND MOVE UNDER A JET MAXIMUM, MARKING THE ONSET OF
- EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
- MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
- INTELLIGENCE (AI) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK
- SCENARIO, PARTICULARLY THROUGH TAU 72, WHERE THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
- 175NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE WESTERN EDGE AND
- ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE MODELS
- DIVERGE, WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WHILE
- THE GALWEM, EGRR AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACK THE CENTER DUE SOUTH, AND
- THE ECMWF AND THE AI MODELS DEPICT A GRADUAL RECURVE SCENARIO
- TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
- PERIOD. THE RESULTING CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO NEARLY 400NM
- BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE
- AI CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
- THROUGH TAU 72, THEN MEDIUM THROUGH TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
- SPLIT BETWEEN THE SHIPS (BOTH GFS AND NAVGEM) AND COTC DEPICTING A
- PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 72 OF 55 KNOTS AND THE HWRF, HAFS-A, CTCX AND
- FGNI ALL DEPICTING A PEAK AT TAU 72 BETWEEN 90-105 KNOTS. THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH TAU 36 AS IT
- DEPICTS A MUCH SHALLOWER AND MORE GRADUAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
- IN THE NEAR-TERM WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FROM TAU
- 48 ONWARDS THE JTWC FORECAST IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE HAFS-A
- MODEL DEPICTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO TAU 72 AND LOW
- THEREAFTER.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
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楼主: yhh
发表于 2026-2-21 10:15
