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AWIO20 FMEE 031228
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2026/02/03 A 1200 UTC
PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY
Bulletins WTIO22 021/09 and WTIO30 022/09 issued at 06 UTC sur la Tempete Tropicale Moderee FYTIA. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.
PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The basin has a monsoon trough pattern east of 66oE and along 11oS. Convection is moderate along this trough. Moderate to strong convection is also located near the FYTIA system south of Reunion Island and over the northern Mozambique Channel.
Over the next five days, an equatorial Rossby wave will approach from the east and intersect with a Kelvin wave near the Chagos Islands. This intersection could create the conditions necessary for cyclogenesis, for example by increasing low-level convergence and convection.
Moderate Tropical Storm FYTIA :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position : 21.8S / 52.9E
Movement : SE, 11 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 45 kt
Estimated central pressure : 992 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.
In the center of the basin southwest of the Chagos Archipelago :
A low-pressure system currently located at 10.7oS 65.2oE is intensifying west of the MT. This circulation should encounter environmental conditions favorable to its development, with good surface convergence on the equatorial side and good divergence at altitude on the polar side of the circulation. Even if the vertical wind shear remains present for a long time, the system should eventually manage to escape it at the end of the week and be able to develop. Ensemble models and some deterministic models show a slow track southward and then southwestward, while AI models show the track moving westward earlier and more rapidly. Subsequently, the dispersion in the forecast track of this system between the different models remains too significant to specify the regions that will be impacted at these distant time scales. All of the various ensemble and AI forecast models are in good agreement and predict the development of this low-pressure circulation within 2 to 3 days.
The risk of a moderate tropical storm forming is low for tomorrow, Wednesday, February 4, moderate on Thursday, February 5, and then high on Friday, February 6, in the southwest of the Chagos Archipelago.
Over the far eastern part of the basin:
A low-pressure system could form over the far east of the basin over the next few days in connection with the passage of a second equatorial Rossby wave and a marked Kelvin. Strong vertical wind shear and weak low-level convergence are expected to limit its development at the beginning of the week, but these conditions are likely to improve slightly by midweek. As a result, some members of the ensemble and AI forecast models suggest that this circulation will develop from Saturday or sunday onwards.
The likelihood of the formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes very low from Thursday, February5. on the far east of the basin.
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:
Very low: less than 10% Moderate: 30% to 60% Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30% High: 60% to 90%
The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.
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楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2026-2-4 02:35
发表于 2026-2-4 04:13
