MEDIUM - 纽埃以西热带扰动08F(99P) - 19.1S 172.3W

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T1.5/2.0，SSD分析降至T1.0/2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 310533
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 31/0530Z
C. 20.22S
D. 171.96W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/2.0/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   31/0343Z  19.73S  171.88W  SSMS
   RUCKER

TXPS22 KNES 310556
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  31/0530Z
C.  20.5S
D.  172.1W
E.  FIVE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED <1.25 DEGREES FROM SHEARED DENSE OVERCAST
RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE MET IS 1.0 BASED ON A STEADY 24 HOUR
TREND. THE PT IS 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO PULSING
CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    31/0343Z 19.8S 171.6W SSMIS
...MONAGHAN

pocketbox

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 310701 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 08F CENTER [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 20.4S
173.9W AT 310600UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI 9 VIS IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD08F SLOW MOVING.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC WITHIN THE
CONVERGENT FLOW. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. TD08F LIES IN A LOW UPPER DIVERGENT AND LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS
WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW TO LOW.

*********************************************************************
******

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析维持T1.5/2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 310858
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF PAGO PAGO)
B. 31/0830Z
C. 21.49S
D. 172.32W
E. FIVE/GOES18
F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   31/0343Z  19.73S  171.88W  SSMS
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析T1.5/1.5，SSD分析维持T1.0/2.0

TPPS12 PGTW 311214
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 31/1130Z
C. 21.89S
D. 172.51W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED WITHIN 75NM OF
OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT YIELD
1.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

TXPS22 KNES 311237
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  31/1130Z
C.  21.9S
D.  172.9W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.0/2.0
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC LOCATED <1.25 DEG FROM DG RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE
MET IS 1.0 BASED ON A SLOWLY WEAKENING 24 HR TREND AND THE PT AGREES. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE MET DUE TO PULSING CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...EVANS

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析维持T1.5/1.5

TPPS12 PGTW 311511
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 31/1430Z
C. 22.94S
D. 173.11W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED MORE THAN 75NM
OUTSIDE OF OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS LIMITING REDUCTION IN FT
OVERNIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HRS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析维持T1.5/1.5

TPPS12 PGTW 311751
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 31/1730Z
C. 23.30S
D. 173.59W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH OVERCAST LESS THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO CONTRAINTS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 18Z分析TOO WEAK

TXPS22 KNES 311824
TCSWSP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99P)
B.  31/1730Z
C.  23.2S
D.  173.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  TOO WEAK
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...LLCC IS GREATER THAN 1.25 DEG FROM THE CONVECTION RESULTING
IN A DT OF 0.0 AND THUS THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...LINER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析TOO WEAK

TPPS12 PGTW 312053
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 31/2030Z
C. 23.62S
D. 173.53W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS12 PGTW 312350
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 23.42S
D. 173.77W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z继续分析TOO WEAK

TPPS12 PGTW 010309
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99P (SE OF TONGA)
B. 01/0230Z
C. 23.88S
D. 173.93W
E. THREE/GOES18
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   LINDGREN