LOW - 澳大利亚北领地近海98P - 15.2S 137.1E

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ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZJAN2026-010600ZFEB2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.6S 136.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.4S 170.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF TONGA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) QUICKLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), BUT WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 99P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 310537
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 31/0530Z
C. 17.09S
D. 133.47E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES
UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

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Tropical Low 18U
The chance of tropical low 18U developing continues to decrease.

• A trough lies over the NT and there is a weak tropical low 18U currently located over land near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria.
• It is likely that 18U lingers over land during Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.
• The tropical cyclone risk has decreased to a Low (5%), for a small chance 18U moves over Gulf waters and develops early next week.
• From Wednesday 18U is likely to move westwards across the NT and weaken.
• There is potential for increased rainfall affecting Northern Territory and the Gulf Country associated with trough. People in these areas should monitor forecasts and warnings for updates.
  

Last updated
22 minutes ago, 08:53 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Mon 2  Feb 12:00 am

Mon 2  Feb 12:00 pm

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 4  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 5  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Fri 6  Feb 12:00 am

Fri 6  Feb 12:00 pm

Sat 7  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 7  Feb 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 18U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 09Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 310849
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (SW OF MORNINGTON ISLAND)
B. 31/0830Z
C. 17.09S
D. 133.03E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 12Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 311217
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 31/1130Z
C. 17.09S
D. 132.39E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 15Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 311516
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 31/1430Z
C. 17.00S
D. 132.05E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BALMER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 18Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 311753
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 31/1730Z
C. 16.46S
D. 131.90E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 312055
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 31/2030Z
C. 16.03S
D. 131.66E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT

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Tropical Low 18U
The risk of 18U developing has decreased and will no longer be tracked.

• The tropical low 18U has weakened, and is unrecognisable in the trough lies that over the NT.
• The risk of this low, 18U, developing has decreased and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:06 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 am

Tue 3  Feb 12:00 pm

Wed 4  Feb 12:00 am

Wed 4  Feb 12:00 pm

Thu 5  Feb 12:00 am

Thu 5  Feb 12:00 pm

Fri 6  Feb 12:00 am

Fri 6  Feb 12:00 pm

Sat 7  Feb 12:00 am

Sat 7  Feb 12:00 pm

Sun 8  Feb 12:00 am

Tropical Low 18U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 00Z分析继续认定中心在陆地上

TPPS10 PGTW 312352
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98P (S OF DARWIN)
B. 31/2330Z
C. 15.72S
D. 131.42E
E. FIVE/GK2A
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 71/PBO XTRP. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO LLCC OVER
LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   BRYANT