留尼汪以西强热带风暴第9号“菲蒂娅”(19S.Fytia) - 海峡内快速增强，东行穿过马达加斯加 - MFR:85KT JTWC:100KT

qiqi

WTIO30 FMEE 291846
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9

2.A POSITION 2026/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 42.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/30 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 42.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/30 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 43.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/01/31 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/31 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 46.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 0

60H: 2026/02/01 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 48.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 140

72H: 2026/02/01 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 50.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/02 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/03 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 155

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE CENTRE AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS THEREFORE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN THIS
AREA, RESULTING IN A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT COULD REACH 2.5 WITHOUT THE
LIMITATION OF THE INITIAL CI LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, THE CI REMAINS AT 2.0+. THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA FROM
THE GPM AT 1558UTC IS SLIGHTLY LESS CLEAR ON THE LOW-LEVEL EYE
STRUCTURE THAN PREVIOUSLY, BUT THE CONFIGURATION STILL POINTS TO
WINDS OF AROUND 30KT, LEAVING SYSTEM 09 -20252026 AT THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STAGE. THE LATEST UPDATE SHOWS A MORE DECIDED SHIFT
TOWARDS THE EAST.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE CONTRADICTORY FLOWS ARE BEGINNING TO FADE WITH
THE TIMID RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL BACKBONE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA.
THIS SITUATION WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST,
GUIDED A LITTLE MORE BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. THIS
WILL THEREFORE ALLOW IT TO MOVE TOWARDS MADAGASCAR
THIS FRIDAY FOR A LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
IN THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA. THIS TIMELINE REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN
DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE IN MOVEMENT SPEED BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE
PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST DISMISSES CERTAIN MODELS THAT ARE TOO RAPID
AND CURRENTLY LOCATE THE SYSTEM INCORRECTLY, SUCH AS GFS AND OTHER
AMERICAN MODELS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR, MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH OF
THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE IN A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE
SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS MODERATE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM WATERS,
MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION CHANNELS AND
LOW SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY SHOULD IMPROVE, ALLOWING THE
CYCLOGENESIS MECHANISM TO BE LAUNCHED MORE CLEARLY AND LEAVING A
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD BE RAPID ON FRIDAY. THE
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST IS CERTAIN, BUT THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM,
AND OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON AI ENSEMBLES AND THE RELATIVELY
RESPONSIVE AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE
MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.


IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDFALL ON THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY, OR EVEN ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CAP SAINT-ANDRE
REGION.
- VERY LIKELY GUSTS OF WIND AT THE END OF THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING
ON FRIDAY. VIOLENT STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
LIKELY AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
- HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY MORNING, INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER
WITH 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ALONG THE TRACK. MAXIMUM
RAINFALL OF 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AT LANDFALL.
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SEA CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY FALLING BUT WEAKENING: 100-150 MM IN 24 HOURS
POSSIBLE LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.=

Ragasa

WTXS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/291221ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   291800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 42.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 42.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 15.6S 43.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 15.9S 44.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   310600Z --- 16.8S 45.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   311800Z --- 18.2S 47.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 20.7S 51.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 22.5S 53.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 24.5S 56.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 42.6E.
29JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300900Z AND 302100Z.//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 291230).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 292100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING
   
4. NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 42.5E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA,
    
13. MOZAMBIQUE
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 02 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE 19S AS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF
    
20. DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CORE AND CIRRUS FILAMENTS  
    
21. ACCOMPANYING THE OUTFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
    
22. DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    
23. SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A POINT SOURCE
    
24. ALOFT NEAR THE CENTER, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
    
25. AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 19S IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
    
26. BEGINNING PHASES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
    
27. AND THE QUICK CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM THUS FAR. THE INITIAL
    
28. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
    
29. BANDING PRESENT IN ANIMATED EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
30. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE
    
31. AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SYSTEM IS IN A COMPETING STEERING
    
36. ENVIRONMENT WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST, A
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND A TROUGH CENTERED TO
    
38. THE SOUTHEAST.
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 291900Z
    
44. 
    
45. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
    
46.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
    
47.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
    
48.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
58. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
    
61. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR JUST AFTER TAU 24.
    
62. 19S IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
    
63. CHARACTERIZED BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTHEAST, A
    
64. DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA,
    
65. AND A TROUGH CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS 19S RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES
    
66. WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE STORM
    
67. AND THE CLOSER NER WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW THE NER TO ASSUME
    
68. STEERING INFLUENCE OVER 19S BEGINNING AROUND TAU 24. THIS WILL ALSO
    
69. RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED AND CAUSING 19S TO ''MOVE IT MOVE
    
70. IT'' ACROSS MADAGASCAR. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK
    
71. DOWN BETWEEN TAU 36-48, ALLOWING THE NER TO BUILD AND EXTEND FURTHER
    
72. SOUTHEASTWARD. AROUND TAU 48, THE NER WILL MERGE WITH A BUILDING STR
    
73. CURRENTLY LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 19S, CREATING A SINGLE LARGE
    
74. RIDGING COMPLEX THAT WILL CAUSE 19S TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU
    
75. 120. REGARDING INTENSITY, 19S IS FORECAST TO RI WITHIN THE MOZAMBIQUE
    
76. CHANNEL AND MAKE LANDFALL AT OR STRONGER THAN 65KTS AFTER TAU 24. THE
    
77. MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MADAGASCAR WILL SHRED THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
    
78. SYSTEM, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOR THE DURATION OF TIME 19S
    
79. SPENDS OVER LAND. 19S IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU
    
80. 48-72, ENTERING INTO A SECOND HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT IS
    
81. EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RECONSOLIDATE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND
    
82. ROUND OF RI. 19S IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
    
83. THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AT TAU 120.
    
84. 
    
85. MODEL DISCUSSION: RELIABLE DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
    
86. STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36,
    
87. WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. THE GUIDANCE
    
88. ENVELOP WIDENS AS 19S TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MADAGASCAR,
    
89. SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH TAU
    
90. 72. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 19S WILL TRACK
    
91. SOUTHEASTWARD ONCE REEMERGING OVER WATER AND MAINTAIN A
    
92. SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
93. SUPPORTING THE JTWC LATE-TERM FORECAST WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
94. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A QUICK INTENSIFICATION
    
95. BUT ALL DETERMINISTIC MODELS PREDICTS AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN 50 KTS
    
96. PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE RIDE RI MODEL IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE DEPICTING A
    
97. PEAK INTENSITY ABOVE 50 KNOTS, REACHING AS HIGH AS 75 KNOTS. GIVEN THE
    
98. HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE JTWC FORECAST
    
99. DEVIATES FROM THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE TO FORECAST FOR RI AND A PEAK
    
100. INTENSITY OF 65 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO
     
101. IN AGREEMENT IN A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OVER MADAGASCAR AND SUBSEQUENT
     
102. RE-INTENSIFICATION. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED WITH
     
103. OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
104. 
     
105. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
106.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
107.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
108.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
109.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
110. NNNN

复制代码

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 21Z分析维持T2.5

TPXS10 PGTW 292055
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE)
B. 29/2030Z
C. 15.56S
D. 42.53E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 2.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/1521Z  15.57S  42.37E  SSMS
   29/1544Z  15.55S  42.40E  GPMI
   HUYNH

Ragasa

WTIO30 FMEE 300037
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (FYTIA)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 42.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/30 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 43.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/31 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 44.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/31 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 45.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

48H: 2026/02/01 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 47.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 185 NW: 140

60H: 2026/02/01 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 49.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95

72H: 2026/02/02 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/03 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100

120H: 2026/02/04 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN NEAR THE CENTRE WITH A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION THAT HAS
FURTHER DEVELOPED, NOTABLY WITH IMPROVED CURVATURE IN THE SOUTHERN
SECTOR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO STRONG IN THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MONSOON FLOW. NO RECENT
MICROWAVE AND DIFFUSIOMETRIC DATA ARE AVAILABLE TO ASSIST IN LOCATING
AND ESTIMATING INTENSITY. THE DVORAK METHOD IS THEREFORE USED AND
COMPARISON WITH THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALLOWS
WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 40KT TO BE ESTIMATED, WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS
REACHING 3.0-. WITH THE SYSTEM NAMED AT 23UTC ON THURSDAY 29 JANUARY
BY THE MADAGASCAR METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, FYTIA IS THEREFORE
CLASSIFIED AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: CONTRADICTORY FLOWS ARE FADING WITH THE
WITHDRAWAL OF THE SUBTROPICAL BACKBONE OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. THIS
SITUATION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST, GUIDED
SLIGHTLY MORE BY THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE FURTHER NORTH. THIS
THEREFORE LEADS TO A MOVEMENT TOWARDS MADAGASCAR THIS FRIDAY FOR A
LANDFALL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE PROVINCE OF
MAHAJANGA. THIS TIMELINE REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCE IN MOVEMENT SPEED BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE PREVIOUS RSMC
FORECAST DISMISSES CERTAIN MODELS THAT ARE TOO RAPID AND CURRENTLY
LOCATE THE SYSTEM INCORRECTLY, SUCH AS GFS AND OTHER AMERICAN MODELS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR,
MAINTAINING ITS COURSE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE SOUTH OF THE PROVINCE OF
TOAMASINA. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE IN
A SOUTHEASTERN DIRECTION AND PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENE ISLANDS IN
THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK REMAINS
MODERATE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GIVEN THE DISPERSION OF
THE AVAILABLE MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVOURABLE THROUGHOUT THE TRANSIT OVER THE SEA, WITH WARM
WATERS, MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, DOUBLE EVACUATION
CHANNELS AND LOW SHEAR. THIS LEADS TO AN IMPROVEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY, THUS MORE CLEARLY TRIGGERING THE CYCLOGENESIS MECHANISM
WITH A WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION, WHICH COULD BE RAPID ON FRIDAY. THE
INTENSIFICATION FORECAST IS CERTAIN, BUT THE SPEED OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM,
AND OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON AI ENSEMBLES AND THE RELATIVELY
RESPONSIVE AROME MODEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE MADAGASCAR COAST. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES OVERLAND, AND ITS
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE
MASCAREIGNES REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS STAGE. ALMOST ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS PREDICT REINTENSIFICATION AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IMPACTED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.


IMPACT ON INHABITED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
MADAGASCAR (MAHAJANGA PROVINCE):
- LANDFALL ON THE PROVINCE OF MAHAJANGA DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY
TO SATURDAY, OR EVEN ON SATURDAY MORNING IN THE CAP SAINT-ANDRE
REGION.
- VERY LIKELY GUSTS OF WIND AT THE END OF THE DAY OR IN THE EVENING
ON FRIDAY. VIOLENT STORM-FORCE WINDS LIKELY NEAR THE LANDFALL ZONE
DURING THE NIGHT FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
LIKELY AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
- HEAVY RAIN VERY LIKELY FROM FRIDAY MORNING, INTENSIFYING THEREAFTER
WITH 150-200 MM IN 24 HOURS, LOCALLY MORE, ALONG THE TRACK. MAXIMUM
RAINFALL OF 200-300 MM IN 24 HOURS ON SATURDAY MORNING AT LANDFALL.
CUMULATIVE RAINFALL OF 100 MM IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE TRACK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- SEA CONDITIONS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH FROM THE END OF FRIDAY.

MADAGASCAR (PROVINCES OF ANTANANARIVO AND TOAMASINA):
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK. TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF
APPROXIMATELY 100MM IN 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVERLAND ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MOZAMBIQUE (NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN EASING OFF WITH AN IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY.=

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、张增海  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 30 日 10 时
“菲蒂娅”于今日早上生成

时  间: 1月30日08时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “菲蒂娅”，FYTIA

中心位置: 南纬15.6度，东经42.4度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 996百帕

参考位置: 距离塔那那利佛西北向约690公里

变化过程: “菲蒂娅”于今日早上07时生成

预报结论: “菲蒂娅”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向东偏南方向移动，1月31日中午前后在马达加斯加西部马哈赞加省附近沿海登陆，登陆前强度将有所加强，登陆后强度逐渐减弱，并于2月1日再次入海并继续向东南方向移动。受其影响，马达加斯加西部沿海及内陆地区将有9～11级风，阵风可达12～13级，“菲蒂娅”登陆后还将给坦布胡拉努地区带来强降水影响。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月30日08时00分）

普通的台风迷

形态不错，此外今年南半球编的还挺多的。

桑美和伊欧凯

普通的台风迷 发表于 2026-1-30 11:23
形态不错，此外今年南半球编的还挺多的。

1月没过完就编到19S了，这才相当于西太的7月底
南半球TC个数连续2年力压西太，理论上个数差不多的

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 03Z分析T3.5

TPXS10 PGTW 300318
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/0230Z
C. 15.58S
D. 42.42E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 2.0. PT YIELDS 3.0 AFTER ADDING
0.5 FOR WHITE HATCHED AREA. DBO CONSTRAINTS. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC 06Z分析维持T3.5

TPXS10 PGTW 300554
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FYTIA)
B. 30/0530Z
C. 15.62S
D. 42.50E
E. FIVE/MET9
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 4.0. MET YIELDS 3.0. PT YIELDS 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RUCKER