珊瑚海二级热带气旋“科吉”(12U/13P.Koji) - 逐渐南下

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IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0715 UTC 10/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 148.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south (176 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm (335 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  10/1200: 18.4S 147.8E:     035 (070):  050  (095):  985
+12:  10/1800: 19.5S 147.6E:     045 (085):  050  (095):  984
+18:  11/0000: 20.2S 147.1E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  989
+24:  11/0600: 20.6S 146.7E:     060 (110):  030  (055):  997
+36:  11/1800: 20.9S 145.5E:     080 (145):  025  (045): 1000
+48:  12/0600: 20.7S 144.6E:     095 (170):  020  (035): 1002
+60:  12/1800: 20.5S 144.0E:     090 (165):  020  (035): 1002
+72:  13/0600: 20.3S 143.6E:     090 (165):  020  (035): 1002
+96:  14/0600: 19.9S 141.9E:     135 (245):  025  (045): 1000
+120: 15/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Koji has developed, though is still a broad system.

Convection around Koji has struggled overnight and this morning, and convective
banding has largely been away from a large surface circulation. However, in the
last 6 hours there has been increased consolidation of the circulation,
convection has developed closer to the system centre, and monsoonal inflow has
become vigorous.
Gales have been observed in eastern and southern quadrants at times. Recently
gales have been observed at Davis Reef, to the south southwest of the surface
low. Earlier today (0230 UTC) Willis Islands observed storm force winds, and is
currently recording gales. These winds were analysed as part of the circulation
and not just with the synoptic flow and indicate that gales are occurring more
than half way around the circulation and hence Koji has been named.

Position based on animated visible imagery and biased towards AMSR microwave
imagery at 0326 UTC.

Dvorak isn  t the most applicable and is not contributing to the intensity
analysis. Dvorak assessment yields a DT=2.5 using a 3-hour average curved band
pattern with a wrap of 0.3 to 0.5. MET is 1.5 based on a D- 24-hour trend,
adjustment  yields PAT of 2.0. FT/CI=2.0, based on DT though constrained.
Objective guidance: 0329 UTC DMINT was 29 knot intensity and DPRINT 24 knots at
0600 UTC both indicating that the cloud structure is not indicative of the wind
flow intensity. Intensity is based on earlier Willis Island observations.

The environment is generally favourable with SSTs of about 28-29 degrees,
strong monsoon inflow providing plenty of moisture, and dual outflow channels
are persisting. Upper divergence may improve further tonight as an upper trough
to the southwest may amplify and move closer. Wind shear has previously
restricted development with some NNE winds across the system, however this has
reduced as the low-level circulation develops.

A mid-level ridge to the east combines with the vigorous monsoon is forecast to
steer Koji south towards the northeast Queensland coast. Once Koji weakens over
land, the system should track slowly west through inland Queensland. From
Thursday or Friday, there is a chance that Koji may reach the Gulf of
Carpentaria waters where there is a Low chance of redevelopment.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1330 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Ayr and Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
Issued at 4:51 pm EST on Saturday 10 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Koji has developed, and is moving towards the northeast Queensland coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Innisfail to Mackay, including Townsville, Palm Island, Bowen, Proserpine and Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Koji 12U at 4:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.1 degrees South 148.1 degrees East, estimated to be 275 kilometres north northeast of Townsville and 225 kilometres east northeast of Innisfail.

Movement: south at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (12U) is located in the Coral Sea offshore of the North Tropical Coast and is moving south towards the Queensland coast.

Koji, a category 2 system, is forecast to continue on a similar south track until crossing the coast. The coastal crossing is forecast for early Sunday morning between Townsville and Bowen. After crossing, Koji will weaken and then track generally westwards.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h are possible from this evening and into early Sunday morning about exposed coastal locations from south of Townsville to Proserpine.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are expected to develop over coastal areas between Cardwell and Airlie Beach, this afternoon or evening. GALES may extend north, to areas between Innisfail and Cardwell this evening if Koji takes a track further west. GALES may extend south, to areas between Proserpine and Mackay, and adjacent inland areas overnight and early Sunday morning.

Gales are expected to ease as the system crosses the coast and moves inland during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop from Ingham to Proserpine tonight. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL, which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, is possible between Townsville and Proserpine later tonight, extending south to Mackay on Sunday.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Cardwell and Mackay over the weekend but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast and central Queensland coasts. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current.

Recommended Action:
People between Ayr to Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach should complete preparations now and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall if safe to do so.

People between Innisfail and Mackay, including Innisfail, Townsville, Palm Island should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 pm.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY. For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm AEST Saturday 10 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 pm January 10	2	17.1S	148.1E	45
+6hr	10 pm January 10	2	18.4S	147.8E	70
+12hr	4 am January 11	2	19.5S	147.6E	85
+18hr	10 am January 11	tropical low	20.2S	147.1E	100
+24hr	4 pm January 11	tropical low	20.6S	146.7E	110
+36hr	4 am January 12	tropical low	20.9S	145.5E	145
+48hr	4 pm January 12	tropical low	20.7S	144.6E	170
+60hr	4 am January 13	tropical low	20.5S	144.0E	165
+72hr	4 pm January 13	tropical low	20.3S	143.6E	165

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 148.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 148.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 18.5S 147.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 19.8S 147.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 20.1S 145.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 148.0E.
10JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
132 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100030 COR).//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 100900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.0S 148.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 132 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KOJI) WITH A BROAD WIND FIELD AND IMPROVING
    
19. CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 13P CONTINUES TO
    
20. HAVE A CORE OF WEAKER WINDS WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE
    
21. PERIPHERY. OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED
    
22. FORMING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND THE RADIUS OF MAX
    
23. WINDS HAS CONTRACTED, INDICATING A MORE TC-LIKE STRUCTURE. A
    
24. 100329Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED FRAGMENTED BANDS OF
    
25. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER, DISPLAYING THE BROAD
    
26. NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
    
28. AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
    
29. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON NEARBY
    
30. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WILLIS ISLAND AND FLINDERS REEF. AGENCY
    
31. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    
32. DUE TO THE GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE COMPARED TO THE
    
33. SURFACE CIRCULATION STRENGTH.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    APRF: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS D-MINT: 29 KTS AT 100329ZZ
    
44.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 24 KTS AT 100600Z
    
45. 
    
46. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
47.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
48.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
49.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
50.    OTHER FACTORS: BROAD WIND FIELD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
60. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
61. 
    
62. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
63. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL CURRENTLY EXPECTED
    
64. TO OCCUR JUST BEFORE TAU 24, NEAR TOWNSVILLE CITY. THE 34-KNOT WIND
    
65. RADII IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY CONTRACT, BUT WILL REMAIN LARGE
    
66. THROUGHOUT THE TIME OF LANDFALL, CAUSING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO IMPACT
    
67. A RELATIVELY LARGE PORTION OF THE QUEENSLAND COAST. AFTER MAKING
    
68. LANDFALL, 13P IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
69. CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM.
    
70. REGARDING INTENSITY, 13P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH
    
71. THE TIME OF LANDFALL BEFORE TERRAIN INTERACTION BECOMES A FACTOR.
    
72. 13P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS AROUND TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
    
73. TRACKS FURTHER INLAND INTO THE QUEENSLAND REGION.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
76. AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
77. PERIOD. CROSS-TRACK SPREAD NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IS AROUND 75
    
78. NM, WITH ECMWF BEING THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL AND GALWEM BEING THE
    
79. SOUTHERNMOST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
80. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
81. GENERALLY AGREES ON A STAGNANT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
    
82. STEADY WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO PLACED NEAR
    
83. THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
87.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
88. NNNN

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iam最小值

命名直接给澳式二级热带气旋，之前好像没有？

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘涛  签发：周冠博  2026 年 01 月 10 日 18 时
“科吉”于今日下午生成

时  间: 10日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “科吉”，KOJI

中心位置: 南纬17.1度，东经148.1度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，26米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 989百帕

参考位置: 距离澳大利亚昆士兰州汤斯维尔北偏东方向约275公里

变化过程: “科吉”于今日下午生成

预报结论: “科吉”将以每小时13公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动，强度维持



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月10日14时00分）

pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Ayr and Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 7:51 pm EST on Saturday 10 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Koji moving towards the northeast Queensland coast. Impacts increasing overnight ahead of landfall later on Sunday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Innisfail to Mackay, including Townsville, Palm Island, Bowen, Proserpine and Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Koji 12U at 7:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.3 degrees South 148.2 degrees East, estimated to be 230 kilometres east of Innisfail and 265 kilometres north northeast of Townsville.

Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (12U), a category 2 system, is located in the Coral Sea offshore of the North Tropical Coast and is moving south towards the Queensland coast.

The coastal crossing is forecast for later on Sunday morning between Townsville and Bowen. After crossing, Koji will weaken and then track generally westwards.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h are possible from this evening and into early Sunday morning about exposed coastal locations from south of Townsville to Airlie Beach.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are expected to develop over coastal areas between Cardwell and Airlie Beach tonight. GALES may also be experienced tonight in areas between Innisfail and Cardwell if Koji takes a track further west, though this is becoming less likely. GALES may extend south, to areas between Proserpine and Mackay, and adjacent inland areas during Sunday morning.

Gales are expected to ease rapidly once Koji crosses the coast and moves inland during Sunday afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop from Ingham to Proserpine tonight. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL, which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, is possible between Townsville and Proserpine later tonight, extending south to Mackay on Sunday.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Cardwell and Mackay over the weekend but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast and central Queensland coasts. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current.

Recommended Action:
People between Ayr to Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach should complete preparations now and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall if safe to do so.

People between Innisfail and Mackay, including Innisfail, Townsville, Palm Island should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 pm.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY. For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Saturday 10 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	7 pm January 10	2	17.3S	148.2E	55
+6hr	1 am January 11	2	18.2S	148.0E	80
+12hr	7 am January 11	2	19.0S	147.6E	95
+18hr	1 pm January 11	tropical low	19.9S	147.2E	110
+24hr	7 pm January 11	tropical low	20.3S	146.7E	120
+36hr	7 am January 12	tropical low	20.6S	145.5E	145
+48hr	7 pm January 12	tropical low	20.4S	144.5E	150
+60hr	7 am January 13	tropical low	20.1S	143.8E	160
+72hr	7 pm January 13	tropical low	19.9S	143.2E	195

pocketbox

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1255 UTC 10/01/2026
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 12U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.9S
Longitude: 147.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south (185 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 170 nm (315 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S0.5/24HRS SST:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm (260 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  10/1800: 18.7S 147.7E:     040 (080):  050  (095):  986
+12:  11/0000: 19.4S 147.5E:     050 (095):  050  (095):  990
+18:  11/0600: 20.3S 147.0E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  990
+24:  11/1200: 20.7S 146.4E:     065 (120):  030  (055):  995
+36:  12/0000: 20.8S 145.0E:     085 (155):  025  (045):  998
+48:  12/1200: 20.5S 144.1E:     085 (155):  020  (035): 1001
+60:  13/0000: 20.2S 143.5E:     095 (170):  020  (035): 1000
+72:  13/1200: 20.0S 142.8E:     110 (205):  020  (035): 1001
+96:  14/1200: 19.4S 140.8E:     150 (280):  020  (035): 1002
+120: 15/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Koji is a broad monsoonal system which does not exhibit the
structure of a standard tropical cyclone. Deep convection continues to be
mostly transient with no continuous banding feature, though this evening more
convection has been developing nearer to the centre.

Gales have been observed in eastern and southern quadrants at times. Recently
gales have been observed at Davis Reef, south southwest of the centre. A brief
period of storm force winds was observed at Willis Island during Saturday and
was also apparent on an AMSR2 intensity estimate.

Position based on animated EIR imagery and nearby observations at Flinders
Reef.

Dvorak isn  t applicable to system intensity due to the broad monsoonal nature
of the circulation. Dvorak assessment yields a DT=1.5 based on MET/PAT. FT/CI
set at 1.5. Objective guidance is providing estimates of 30-40 knots (10-minute
mean) but are of limited use due to the atypical structure and synoptic forcing
affecting wind intensity. Intensity is set at 50kt 10-min mean winds, based on
earlier Willis Island observations and AMSR2 estimates.

The environment is generally favourable with SSTs of about 28-29 degrees,
strong monsoon inflow providing plenty of moisture, and dual outflow channels
are persisting. Upper divergence may improve further tonight as an upper trough
to the southwest may amplify and move closer, though the impact of this upon
development is likely to have less impact than with a more typical tropical
cyclone due to the broad system structure decreasing the impact of secondary
circulation factors. Wind shear has previously restricted development with some
NNE winds across the system, however this has reduced as the low-level
circulation develops.

A mid-level ridge to the east combines with the vigorous monsoon is forecast to
steer Koji south towards the northeast Queensland coast. Once Koji weakens over
land, the system should track slowly west through inland Queensland. From
Thursday or Friday, there is a slim chance the remnants of this system reaches
the Gulf of Carpentaria waters, but at this stage it is deemed a very low risk
of redevelopment.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 10/1930 UTC.

---

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Ayr and Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 10:52 pm EST on Saturday 10 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Koji moving towards the northeast Queensland coast. Impacts increasing overnight ahead of landfall later on Sunday morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
South of Lucinda to Mackay, including Townsville, Palm Island, Bowen, Proserpine and Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Innisfail to Lucinda.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Koji 12U at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.9 degrees South 147.9 degrees East, estimated to be 190 kilometres northeast of Townsville and 205 kilometres east southeast of Innisfail.

Movement: south at 11 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (12U), a category 2 system, is located in the Coral Sea offshore of the North Tropical Coast and is moving south towards the Queensland coast.

The coastal crossing is forecast for Sunday morning between Townsville and Bowen. After crossing, Koji will weaken and then track generally westwards.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS to 130 km/h are possible during Sunday morning about exposed coastal locations from south of Townsville to Airlie Beach.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h are beginning to occur through the Whitsunday Islands and are expected to develop over coastal areas between Lucinda and Airlie Beach tonight or the early hours of Sunday. GALES may extend south, to areas between Airlie Beach and Mackay, and adjacent inland areas during Sunday morning.

Gales are expected to ease rapidly once Koji crosses the coast and moves inland during Sunday afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast to develop from Ingham to Proserpine tonight. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL, which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, is possible between Townsville and Proserpine later tonight, extending south to Mackay on Sunday.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Cardwell and Mackay over the weekend but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast and central Queensland coasts. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current.

Recommended Action:
People between Ayr to Proserpine, including Bowen and Airlie Beach should complete preparations now and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

People between Lucinda and Mackay, including Townsville, Palm Island and the Whitsunday Islands should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 am.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY. For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AEST Sunday 11 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 pm January 10	2	17.9S	147.9E	55
+6hr	4 am January 11	2	18.7S	147.7E	80
+12hr	10 am January 11	2	19.4S	147.5E	95
+18hr	4 pm January 11	tropical low	20.3S	147.0E	110
+24hr	10 pm January 11	tropical low	20.7S	146.4E	120
+36hr	10 am January 12	tropical low	20.8S	145.0E	155
+48hr	10 pm January 12	tropical low	20.5S	144.1E	155
+60hr	10 am January 13	tropical low	20.2S	143.5E	170
+72hr	10 pm January 13	tropical low	20.0S	142.8E	205

pocketbox

WTPS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 17.9S 148.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 148.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 19.4S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 20.3S 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 20.4S 145.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 147.8E.
10JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 101500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR
   
4. 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 17.9S 148.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
    
19. NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
    
20. 13P CONTINUES TO HAVE A CORE OF WEAKER WINDS WITH STRONGER WINDS
    
21. ALONG THE PERIPHERY. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPEARS TO BE
    
22. FURTHER CONTRACTING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE INITIAL
    
23. POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY
    
24. EXPOSED CENTER IN ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
    
25. KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON NEARBY
    
26. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 35-40 KTS. ADDITIONALLY, A
    
27. PARTIAL 101113Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWED NON-FLAGGED 40 KNOT BARBS
    
28. WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. AGENCY DVORAK
    
29. ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE CURRENT INTENSITY DUE TO
    
30. THE GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE COMPARED TO THE SURFACE
    
31. CIRCULATION STRENGTH.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
40.    ABRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 101200Z
    
42.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 101200Z
    
43. 
    
44. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
45.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
46.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
47.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
48.    OTHER FACTORS: BROAD WIND FIELD
    
49. 
    
50. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
51.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
52.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
53.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
54. 
    
55. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
56. 
    
57. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
58. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
59. 
    
60. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 13P IS FORECAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
    
61. THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR TAU
    
62. 12, CLOSE TO TOWNSVILLE CITY. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE FORECAST
    
63. TO FURTHER CONTRACT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. AFTER TAU
    
64. 24, 13P IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
65. CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEM.
    
66. REGARDING INTENSITY, 13P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE
    
67. NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BEGINS TO FEEL TERRAIN EFFECTS. AFTER
    
68. MAKING LANDFALL, 13P WILL STEADILY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A
    
69. COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR FROM CENTRAL
    
70. AUSTRALIA IMPACT THE VORTEX. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NEAR
    
71. TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS FURTHER INLAND INTO THE QUEENSLAND
    
72. REGION.
    
73. 
    
74. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
75. AGREEMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
    
76. PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE
    
77. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
    
78. AGREES ON WEAKENING FROM TAU 12 ONWARD WITH LITTLE VARIABILITY,
    
79. LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
    
80. 
    
81. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
82.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
83.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
84. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

IDQ20023

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 1:54 am EST on Sunday 11 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Koji to cross the coast between Townsville and Bowen as a category 1 system this morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Townsville to Mackay, including Bowen, Proserpine and Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
South of Lucinda to Townsville, including Palm Island.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Koji 12U at 1:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 18.5 degrees South 148.0 degrees East, estimated to be 150 kilometres northeast of Townsville and 170 kilometres north of Bowen.

Movement: south at 16 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (12U), has been downgraded to a category 1 system. It is located northeast of Townsville and is moving south towards the coast. Koji will cross the coast this morning between Townsville and Bowen.

After crossing it will weaken rapidly before tracking westwards. Heavy rain may persist through the region through Sunday and into Monday.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS up to 120 km/h currently being observed through the Whitsunday Islands and offshore reefs are expected to extend over coastal areas between Townsville and Airlie Beach this morning. GALES may extend further south, to areas between Airlie Beach and Mackay, particularly if the system tracks further to the south than forecast. GALES may also extend into adjacent inland areas later during Sunday morning as the system crosses the coast.

Gales are expected to ease rapidly once Koji crosses the coast and moves inland during Sunday afternoon.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast from Ingham to Proserpine. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL, which may lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, is possible between Townsville and Proserpine, extending south to Mackay later today.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Cardwell and Mackay over the weekend but should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds about the northeast and central Queensland coasts. Flood Watches and Warnings are also current.

Recommended Action:
People between Townsville and Mackay, including Bowen, Proserpine and the Whitsunday Islands should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5 am.

- Stay informed by checking your local government s Disaster Dashboards for the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY. For non-life threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 am AEST Sunday 11 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	1 am January 11	1	18.5S	148.0E	55
+6hr	7 am January 11	1	19.3S	147.6E	80
+12hr	1 pm January 11	tropical low	20.0S	147.2E	95
+18hr	7 pm January 11	tropical low	20.5S	146.7E	110
+24hr	1 am January 12	tropical low	20.7S	145.9E	120
+36hr	1 pm January 12	tropical low	20.4S	145.0E	150
+48hr	1 am January 13	tropical low	19.9S	144.2E	160
+60hr	1 pm January 13	tropical low	19.7S	143.5E	165
+72hr	1 am January 14	tropical low	19.4S	142.8E	185

ygsj24

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 4:57 am EST on Sunday 11 January 2026

Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Koji to cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen this morning.
Warning for Townsville is cancelled.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: Ayr to Mackay, including Whitsunday Islands, Bowen and Proserpine.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Townsville.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Koji 12U at 4:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 85 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 19.0 degrees South 147.9 degrees East,
estimated to be 120 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 120 kilometres
north northwest of Bowen.
Movement: south at 18 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Koji (12U), category 1, lies east northeast of Townsville and
moving south and will cross the coast between Ayr and Bowen in the next 3-5
hours. Strongest winds are occurring over Whitsunday Islands. After crossing it
will weaken rapidly before tracking westwards. Heavy rain may persist through
the region through Sunday and into Monday.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS up to 120 km/h currently being observed through
the Whitsunday Islands.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may briefly extend to coastal areas
between Ayr and Mackay and to adjacent inland areas during this morning as the
system crosses the coast.

Gales are expected to ease rapidly once Koji crosses the coast and moves inland
during Sunday.

HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to FLASH FLOODING, is forecast from Ingham to
Proserpine. Locally INTENSE RAINFALL, which may lead to DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, is possible between Townsville and Proserpine,
extending south to Mackay later today.

Tides are likely to be higher than normal between Cardwell and Mackay today but
should not exceed the highest tide of the year.

A Severe Weather Warning is also current for heavy to locally intense rainfall
and damaging winds about the northeast and central Queensland coasts. Flood
Watches and Warnings are also current.

Recommended Action:
People between Townsville and Mackay, including Bowen, Proserpine and the
Whitsunday Islands should take precautions and listen to the next advice.

- Stay informed by checking your local government  s Disaster Dashboards for
the latest updates.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit the Get Ready Queensland
website www.getready.qld.gov.au

IF YOUR LIFE IS IN DANGER PHONE TRIPLE ZERO (000) IMMEDIATELY. For non-life
threatening emergency assistance contact State Emergency Services (SES) online
via the SES Assistance QLD App (Apple, Android), online 132500.qld.gov.au, or
call 132 500 from anywhere in Queensland.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am AEST Sunday 11 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	4 am January 11	1	19.0S	147.9E	55
+6hr	10 am January 11	tropical low	19.9S	147.5E	75
+12hr	4 pm January 11	tropical low	20.3S	147.0E	95
+18hr	10 pm January 11	tropical low	20.7S	146.4E	110
+24hr	4 am January 12	tropical low	20.7S	145.7E	120
+36hr	4 pm January 12	tropical low	20.4S	144.9E	150
+48hr	4 am January 13	tropical low	19.9S	144.1E	165
+60hr	4 pm January 13	tropical low	19.7S	143.5E	150
+72hr	4 am January 14	tropical low	19.5S	142.7E	200

1. AXAU21 ABRF 101920
   
2. IDQ20018
   
3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
   
4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
   
5. AT: 1920 UTC 10/01/2026
   
6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE KOJI
   
7. IDENTIFIER: 12U
   
8. DATA AT: 1800 UTC
   
9. LATITUDE: 19.0S
   
10. LONGITUDE: 147.9E
    
11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 30NM (55 KM)
    
12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH (186 DEG)
    
13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 10 KNOTS (18 KM/H)
    
14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
    
15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 65 KNOTS (120 KM/H)
    
16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
    
17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
    
18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 120 NM (220 KM)
    
19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
    
20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
    
21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
    
22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
    
23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
    
24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
    
25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
    
26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 40 NM (75 KM)
    
27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
    
28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1000 HPA
    
29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
    
30. FORECAST DATA
    
31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
    
32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
    
33. +06:  11/0000: 19.9S 147.5E:     040 (075):  030  (055):  988
    
34. +12:  11/0600: 20.3S 147.0E:     050 (095):  030  (055):  992
    
35. +18:  11/1200: 20.7S 146.4E:     060 (110):  030  (055):  995
    
36. +24:  11/1800: 20.7S 145.7E:     065 (120):  025  (045):  996
    
37. +36:  12/0600: 20.4S 144.9E:     080 (150):  020  (035):  999
    
38. +48:  12/1800: 19.9S 144.1E:     090 (165):  020  (035): 1001
    
39. +60:  13/0600: 19.7S 143.5E:     080 (150):  020  (035): 1001
    
40. +72:  13/1800: 19.5S 142.7E:     110 (200):  020  (035): 1001
    
41. +96:  14/1800: 19.1S 140.4E:     150 (280):  020  (035): 1002
    
42. +120: 15/1800:             :              :            :
    
43. REMARKS:
    
44. TROPICAL CYCLONE KOJI IS A BROAD MONSOONAL SYSTEM WHICH DOES NOT EXHIBIT THE
    
45. STRUCTURE OF A STANDARD TROPICAL CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE
    
46. MOSTLY TRANSIENT WITH NO CONTINUOUS BANDING FEATURE.
    
47. POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AT DAVIES REEF
    
48. AND RADAR.
    
49. GALES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS AT TIMES AND ARE
    
50. OCCURRING AT HAMILTON ISLAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTENSITY OF 45KN BASED UPON
    
51. OBSERVATIONS AND CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.
    
52. DVORAK AND SATELLITE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AREN'T GENERALLY APPLICABLE TO THIS
    
53. BROAD SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH SATCON'S 45KN ESTIMATE IS CONSISTENT. DVORAK ASSESSMENT
    
54. YIELDS A DT=1.5 BASED ON MET/PAT. FT/CI SET AT 1.5.
    
55. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVOURABLE WITH SSTS OF ABOUT 28-29 DEGREES,
    
56. STRONG MONSOON INFLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL
    
57. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE PERSISTING. HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION HAS
    
58. FAILED TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT THE BROAD SYSTEM AND LANDFALL IS IMMINENT SO NO
    
59. INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
    
60. ALL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH WEAKENING OVER LAND TODAY, WITH A LONGER TERM
    
61. TRACK MOVING TO THE WEST OWING TO A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
    
62. FROM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM
    
63. REACHES THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA WATERS, BUT AT THIS STAGE IT IS DEEMED A VERY
    
64. LOW RISK OF REDEVELOPMENT.
    
65. 
    
66. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
    
67. ==
    
68. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 11/0130 UTC.=

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ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 19.3S 147.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 147.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 20.6S 147.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 21.0S 146.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 21.2S 145.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 147.8E.
10JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187
NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 102100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KOJI) WARNING NR
   
4. 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 19.3S 147.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 187 NM SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 12 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
    
18. ROTATION, EXHIBITING ASPECTS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE SYSTEM,
    
19. WITH A SMALL INNER-CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING JUST
    
20. OFFSHORE OF BOWEN. ANIMATED RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL
    
21. CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX
    
22. ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE
    
23. COASTLINE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVA BEACH AND BOWEN INDICATE
    
24. THE LLCC REMAINS OFFSHORE AS OF THE 1800Z HOUR. A 101812Z SSMIS
    
25. 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE-BASED ARCHER ANALYSIS PLACES THE LLCC EAST OF
    
26. ALVA BEACH AS WELL. THE HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
    
27. ARE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
    
28. OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, OBSERVATIONS FROM
    
29. HAMILTON BAY HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOVE 40-45 KNOTS, LIKELY DUE
    
30. TO THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE OBSERVATION SITE. THE INITIAL POSITION
    
31. IS THUS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGREEMENT OF THE
    
32. VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES ABOVE. THE INITIAL
    
33. INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BIASED TOWARDS THE
    
34. HIGHER END OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW.
    
35. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM
    
36. SSTS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE
    
37. BROAD NATURE OF THE VORTEX.
    
38. 
    
39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
40. 
    
41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
    
42. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST.
    
43. 
    
44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
45.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
46.    KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
47.    ABRF: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
48.    CIMSS SATCON: 45 KTS AT 101830Z
    
49.    CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 101730Z
    
50.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 101730Z
    
51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 27 KTS AT 101529Z
    
52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 101730Z
    
53. 
    
54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
55.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
56.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
57.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
58.    OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND, MONSOONAL DEPRESSION
    
59. STRUCTURE.
    
60. 
    
61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
62.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
65. 
    
66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
67. 
    
68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
70. 
    
71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P HAS CONTINUED TO
    
72. SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE, WITH A STEADILY DECREASING RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
    
73. WINDS (RMW) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE
    
74. NORTHWEST OF BOWEN, AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE
    
75. WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
    
76. CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SHORT
    
77. DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER
    
78. THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE,
    
79. BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
    
80. NO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES
    
81. LANDFALL AND ONCE ASHORE, TC 13P WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITHIN
    
82. 24-36 HOURS.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
85. AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL, THEN A
    
86. GRADUAL TURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DISSIPATION. SEVERAL
    
87. MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS, INCLUDING NAVGEM, GFS, GEFS AND EC-AIFS,
    
88. TURN THE REMNANTS OF TC 13P ONTO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
    
89. TAU 24, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS CONTINUE IT ALONG A
    
90. STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
91. AGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
    
96. NNNN

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