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科科斯群岛西南三级强热带气旋“詹纳”(11U/12S.Jenna) - JTWC:90KT

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发表于 2026-1-6 04:10 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:56 am WST on Tuesday 6 January 2026

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (Category 2) was located at 2:00 am AWST (1:00 am CXT)
near 14.4S 96.3E,
that is 255 km south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving south
southwest at 22 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is located well south of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. Jenna will continue to track to the southwest, away from the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands over open waters in the Indian Ocean during the next few
days. The system is expected to strengthen during Tuesday before starting to
weaken from Wednesday as it moves into a more unfavourable environment. It is
no longer expected to impact Indian Ocean territories or the Western Australia
mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Tuesday 06 January
(8:00 am CXT Tuesday 06 January).





Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am January 6214.4S96.3E35
+6hr8 am January 6215.2S95.6E60
+12hr2 pm January 6215.8S94.9E80
+18hr8 pm January 6316.3S94.2E90
+24hr2 am January 7316.7S93.4E100
+36hr2 pm January 7217.4S91.9E115
+48hr2 am January 8117.7S90.2E130
+60hr2 pm January 8tropical low17.5S88.4E155
+72hr2 am January 9tropical low17.3S86.4E185

  1. AXAU01 APRF 051859
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 1859 UTC 05/01/2026
  6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 1800 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 14.4S
  10. LONGITUDE: 96.3E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTH SOUTHWEST (199 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 12 KNOTS (22 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 991 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 90 NM (165 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 15 NM (30 KM)
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 25 NM (45 KM)
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 25 NM (45 KM)
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 15 NM (30 KM)
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 140 NM (260 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  06/0000: 15.2S  95.6E:     030 (060):  055  (100):  987
  34. +12:  06/0600: 15.8S  94.9E:     040 (080):  060  (110):  983
  35. +18:  06/1200: 16.3S  94.2E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  979
  36. +24:  06/1800: 16.7S  93.4E:     055 (100):  065  (120):  979
  37. +36:  07/0600: 17.4S  91.9E:     065 (115):  055  (100):  986
  38. +48:  07/1800: 17.7S  90.2E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  996
  39. +60:  08/0600: 17.5S  88.4E:     080 (155):  030  (055): 1001
  40. +72:  08/1800: 17.3S  86.4E:     100 (185):  025  (045): 1004
  41. +96:  09/1800:             :              :            :
  42. +120: 10/1800:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA (11U) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST AWAY
  45. FROM THE COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS.

  47. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN PULSATING, BUT CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE CENTRE
  48. AND SHOWING TIGHT CURVATURE. SOME WARMING OF CENTRE IN THE INFRARED (IR)
  49. SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER HAS GONE. OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM
  50. MAY BE DEVELOPING AT A SLOWER RATE THAN EARLIER ON MONDAY. A SAR PASS AT
  51. 1153UTC SHOWED AN MEAN INTENSITY OF 51 KN (1 MIN MEAN).

  53. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS DT=3.0 USING A 3-HOUR AVERAGE CURVED BAND PATTERN
  54. (0.5-0.9 WRAP). WHILE THE CURVATURE IS TIGHT, THE PULSATING CONVECTION HAS MADE
  55. FIND A CONSISTENT WRAP HARDER DEPENDING ON IF BREAK IN CONVECTION ARE PAID. MET
  56. IS 3.0 BASED ON A D 24-HOUR TREND, ADJUSTED TO PT 3.5. FT/CI=3.5 BASED ON PAT.
  57. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIABLE AT 1730 UTC (1-MINUTE MEAN): CIMSS ADT 53
  58. KNOTS (UNIFORM PATTERN), AIDT 38 KNOTS, DPRINT 62 KNOTS, DMINT (1232UTC) 57
  59. KNOTS, SATCON (1500 UTC) 56 KN. INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
  60. AND SAR PASS AT 1153 UTC.

  62. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVOURABLE WITH WARM SSTS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, GOOD
  63. UPPER OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
  64. FROM THE NE (CIMSS 15 UTC). STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS MAY
  65. BE POSSIBLE AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65 KN, CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY
  66. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY BE CLOSING AND
  67. THE 1200 UTC RUN OF AI-RI (RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE), HAS DECREASED THE
  68. CHANCE OF A 25-30 KN CHANGE OVER 24 HOUR DOWN FROM 33% TO 26%. HOWEVER, BY
  69. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN IS
  70. FORECAST TO INCREASE SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRY AIR INTO
  71. THE CORE OF JENNA SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY.

  73. JENNA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO BE
  74. STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. JENNA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AWAY
  75. FROM THE COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TO BE WELL AWAY BY TUESDAY.
  76. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND JENNA SHOULD MOVE
  77. WESTWARDS FROM LATE TUESDAY AND BE OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION BY LATE
  78. WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

  80. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  81. ==
  82. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 06/0130 UTC.=
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发表于 2026-1-6 04:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-6 06:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 96.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 96.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.8S 94.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.8S 93.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.6S 92.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.2S 90.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 18.0S 87.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 17.7S 83.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 95.8E.
05JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 052100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR
  4. 003//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 96.1E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
  13. ISLANDS
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 25 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (JENNA) HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
  19. PAST 12 HOURS, UNDER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTAL
  20. CONDITIONS. AN EARLIER SAR PASS APPROXIMATELY 1200Z INDICATED A
  21. MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND OF 54 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM HAS EXHIBITED CONTINUED
  22. STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
  23. (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
  24. (CDO) FEATURE, WHICH DISPLAYS INCIPIENT ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS. A
  25. SLIGHT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IS NOTED, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EASTERN
  26. SIDE OF THE CDO ATTRIBUTED TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
  27. AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
  28. POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REFLECTING A LACK OF
  29. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IS POSITIONED AT THE NEXUS OF MAXIMUM
  30. ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
  31. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SET SLIGHTLY
  32. ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES,
  33. SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS (D-
  34. PRINT, D-MINT, AND SATCON) AND THE OBSERVED ENHANCEMENT OF THE
  35. CONVECTIVE ARCHITECTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
  36. FOR DEVELOPMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST
  37. POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS).

  39. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

  41. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  42. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.

  44. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  45.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  46.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  47.    APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  48.    CIMSS SATCON: 71 KTS AT 051845Z
  49.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 051730Z
  50.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 051730Z
  51.    CIMSS D-MINT: 70 KTS AT 051845Z
  52.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 68 KTS AT 051830Z

  54. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  55.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  56.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  57.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
  58.    OTHER FACTORS: DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR ALONG THE EASTERN
  59. FLANK.

  61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  62.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

  66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: SINCE PASSING EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, TC 12S HAS
  72. MAINTAINED A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK, STEERED BY THE NORTHWESTERN
  73. PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THE
  74. SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACE A GENTLE SOUTHWESTWARD ARC OVER THE NEXT
  75. 36 HOURS AS THE STR AMPLIFIES WHILE MAINTAINING ITS NORTHWEST-
  76. SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
  77. (LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR, WARM SSTS, AND EFFECTIVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW)
  78. FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A
  79. PEAK INTENSITY OF 70-75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR
  80. INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED. BY TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
  81. PROJECTED TO INCREASE, INITIALLY AT A GRADUAL RATE BEFORE
  82. ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 30. BY TAU 36, SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 35
  83. KNOTS. THE COMBINATION OF PROHIBITIVE SHEAR AND AN INFLUX OF
  84. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THE DEEP
  85. CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING
  86. THEREAFTER. AS THE VORTEX DECREASES IN VERTICAL DEPTH AND WEAKENS, IT
  87. WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY
  88. FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
  89. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD FROM TAU 48 ONWARDS, AS IT UNDERGOES
  90. RAPID WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATES BY TAU 96.

  92. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE AND ARTIFICIAL
  93. INTELLIGENCE MODELS EXHIBIT STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL TRACK
  94. SCENARIO. THROUGH THE INFLECTION POINT AT TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE IS
  95. TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITHIN A 50NM WIDE ENVELOPE. AFTER THE SYSTEM TURNS
  96. WESTWARD AT TAU 48, CROSS-TRACK INCREASES TO APPROXIMATELY 150NM,
  97. WITH THE NAVGEM AND EGRR MODELS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE,
  98. AND THE ECMWF AND ECEPS MEAN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.
  99. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY, SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS
  100. NOTED AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE GFS-GEFS SUITE EXHIBITING A MUCH FASTER
  101. FORWARD SPEED THAN THE ECMWF-ECEPS PAIRING, RESULTING IN ALONG-TRACK
  102. UNCERTAINTY EXCEEDING 400NM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
  103. JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE EC-AIFS CONSENSUS AND
  104. SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH
  105. CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONCURS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH
  106. PEAK INTENSITY AT OR BEFORE TAU 24, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
  107. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HAFS-A, HOWEVER, DOES INDICATE
  108. A POTENTIAL FOR REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 72, THOUGH IT IS A
  109. SINGULAR OUTLIER IN THIS REGARD. THE JTWC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
  110. CONSENSUS MEAN TREND, BUT IS MAINTAINED APPROXIMATELY 5 KNOTS HIGHER
  111. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.

  113. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  114.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  115.    TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
  116.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH
  117.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  118. NNNN
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积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-6 09:30 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:36 am WST on Tuesday 6 January 2026

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (Category 2) was located at 8:00 am AWST (7:00 am CXT)
near 15.2S 95.5E,
that is 365 km south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving southwest at
21 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is located well south of the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands. Jenna will continue to track to the southwest, away from the Cocos
(Keeling) Islands over open waters in the Indian Ocean during the next few
days. Jenna is expected to strengthen today before starting to weaken from
Wednesday. It is not expected to impact Indian Ocean territories or the Western
Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Tuesday 06 January
(2:00 pm CXT Tuesday 06 January).





Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am January 6215.2S95.5E35
+6hr2 pm January 6215.8S94.9E60
+12hr8 pm January 6316.3S94.2E80
+18hr2 am January 7316.6S93.4E90
+24hr8 am January 7317.0S92.6E100
+36hr8 pm January 7117.6S90.9E115
+48hr8 am January 8tropical low17.7S89.3E130
+60hr8 pm January 8tropical low17.4S87.3E165
+72hr8 am January 9tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

  1. AXAU01 APRF 060119
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 0118 UTC 06/01/2026
  6. NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 0000 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 15.2S
  10. LONGITUDE: 95.5E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHWEST (224 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 11 KNOTS (21 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 55 KNOTS (100 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 70 NM (130 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 130 NM (240 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  06/0600: 15.8S  94.9E:     030 (060):  060  (110):  983
  34. +12:  06/1200: 16.3S  94.2E:     040 (080):  065  (120):  979
  35. +18:  06/1800: 16.6S  93.4E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  979
  36. +24:  07/0000: 17.0S  92.6E:     055 (100):  065  (120):  979
  37. +36:  07/1200: 17.6S  90.9E:     065 (115):  045  (085):  993
  38. +48:  08/0000: 17.7S  89.3E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  998
  39. +60:  08/1200: 17.4S  87.3E:     090 (165):  030  (055): 1002
  40. +72:  09/0000:             :              :            :
  41. +96:  10/0000:             :              :            :
  42. +120: 11/0000:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA (11U) CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES SOUTHWEST,
  45. FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COCOS (KEELING) ISLANDS.

  47. CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED, WITH A MORE CONSISTENT WRAP AND IMPROVED
  48. CONFIDENCE IN SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING TODAY. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CENTRE LOCATION
  49. OBTAINED FROM VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

  51. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS DT=3.5 USING A 3-HOUR AVERAGE CURVED BAND PATTERN.
  52. DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS WRAP OF 0.7 TO 1.1 IN THE MOST RECENT IMAGE. MET IS 4.0
  53. BASED ON A D 24-HOUR TREND, ADJUSTED TO PT 3.5. FT/CI=3.5 BASED ON PAT.
  54. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 6-HOURS, AT 0000
  55. UTC (1-MINUTE MEAN): CIMSS ADT 74 KNOTS (UNIFORM PATTERN), AIDT 71 KNOTS,
  56. DPRINT 80 KNOTS, DMINT (2106UTC) 78 KNOTS, SATCON (2140 UTC) 77 KN. WITH LITTLE
  57. IN THE WAY OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY TO ASSIST, INTENSITY IS ANALYSED AT 55 KN,
  58. BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND, AND EARLIER SAR PASS AT 1153UTC. THIS IS SLIGHTLY
  59. HIGHER THAN DVORAK, BUT LOWER THAN THE OBJECTIVE AIDES, AND THE ANALYSIS COULD
  60. BE HIGHER.

  62. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH WARM SSTS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, GOOD UPPER
  63. OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 13 KNOTS FROM
  64. THE NNE (CIMSS 18 UTC). STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS MAY BE
  65. POSSIBLE AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 65 KN, CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY LATE
  66. THURSDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
  67. INDIAN OCEAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHEAR, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
  68. INGESTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF JENNA SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY.

  70. JENNA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
  71. THE EAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. JENNA SHOULD
  72. BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY AS A IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE
  73. STEERING INFLUENCE CHANGES TO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. JENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
  74. OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

  76. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  77. ==
  78. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 06/0730 UTC.=
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超强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
13936
发表于 2026-1-6 10:25 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 06 日 10 时
“詹纳”向西南方向移动

时  间: 6日08时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “詹纳”，JENNA

中心位置: 南纬15.2度，东经95.5度

强度等级: 二级热带气旋

最大风力: 10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压: 990百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛西南方向约370公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“詹纳”强度由7级加强为10级

预报结论: “詹纳”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐增强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月6日08时00分）

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热带风暴

积分
1106
发表于 2026-1-6 13:11 | 显示全部楼层
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完美风暴

积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-6 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:27 pm WST on Tuesday 6 January 2026

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (Category 3) was located at 2:00 pm AWST (1:00 pm
CXT) near 15.7S 94.7E,
that is 455 km south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving west southwest
at 17 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is located well south southwest of the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Jenna will continue to track to the west southwest,
well away from the Cocos (Keeling) Islands over open waters in the Indian Ocean
during the next few days. Jenna is expected to strengthen today and tonight,
before starting to weaken from Wednesday. It is not expected to impact Indian
Ocean territories or the Western Australia mainland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 pm AWST Tuesday 06 January
(8:00 pm CXT Tuesday 06 January).





Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 pm January 6315.7S94.7E35
+6hr8 pm January 6316.2S94.2E60
+12hr2 am January 7316.5S93.5E75
+18hr8 am January 7317.0S92.7E90
+24hr2 pm January 7217.3S91.8E100
+36hr2 am January 8117.6S90.4E115
+48hr2 pm January 8tropical low17.5S88.7E130
+60hr2 am January 9tropical low17.2S86.6E165
+72hr2 pm January 9tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

  1. AXAU01 APRF 060649
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 0649 UTC 06/01/2026
  6. NAME: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 0600 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 15.7S
  10. LONGITUDE: 94.7E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 20NM (35 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST SOUTHWEST (237 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 9 KNOTS (17 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 75 KNOTS (140 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 105 KNOTS (195 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 973 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 75 NM (140 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 90 NM (165 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 80 NM (150 KM)
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 65 NM (120 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 30 NM (55 KM)
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 25 NM (45 KM)
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: 15 NM (30 KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 230 NM (425 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  06/1200: 16.2S  94.2E:     030 (060):  080  (150):  968
  34. +12:  06/1800: 16.5S  93.5E:     040 (075):  080  (150):  969
  35. +18:  07/0000: 17.0S  92.7E:     050 (090):  065  (120):  981
  36. +24:  07/0600: 17.3S  91.8E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  989
  37. +36:  07/1800: 17.6S  90.4E:     060 (115):  045  (085):  995
  38. +48:  08/0600: 17.5S  88.7E:     070 (130):  035  (065): 1001
  39. +60:  08/1800: 17.2S  86.6E:     090 (165):  030  (055): 1004
  40. +72:  09/0600:             :              :            :
  41. +96:  10/0600:             :              :            :
  42. +120: 11/0600:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA (11U) IS INTENSIFYING, WITH AN EYE DEVELOPING
  45. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.

  47. CURVED BANDING CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE AN EYE MADE AN
  48. APPEARANCE, AND IN RECENT HOURS THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED. ALTHOUGH
  49. IN THE LAST HOUR THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE.
  50. VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTRE POSITION, OBTAINED FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE
  51. IMAGERY.

  53. DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A 3-HOUR AVERAGE DT=4.5 FROM AN EYE PATTERN WITH LG TO
  54. MG SURROUNDS AND NEGATIVE ADJUSTMENT DUE TO AN ELONGATED EYE. MET IS 4.5 BASED
  55. ON A D+ 24-HOUR TREND, NO ADJUSTMENT. FT/CI=4.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AT 0520 UTC
  56. (1-MINUTE MEAN): CIMSS ADT 102 KNOTS (EYE PATTERN), AIDT 92 KNOTS, AND DPRINT
  57. 87 KNOTS. ASCAT AT 0245 UTC HAS BEEN USED FOR THE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS. INTENSITY
  58. IS ANALYSED AT 75KN, WHICH IS ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CLOSER TO, THOUGH
  59. STILL BELOW, OBJECTED GUIDANCE.

  61. THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVOURABLE WITH WARM SSTS, GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW TO
  62. THE SOUTHWEST AND DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NNE
  63. (CIMSS 00 UTC). SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE WRAPPING INTO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, AS
  64. INDICATED ON THE MIMIC IMAGERY, AND IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE EROSION OF
  65. THE EASTERN EYE. A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IS
  66. FORECAST, WITH A PEAK IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY AN APPROACHING
  67. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SHEAR, AND
  68. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE OF JENNA SHOULD
  69. WEAKEN THE SYSTEM QUICKLY.

  71. JENNA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE WEST SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL
  72. RIDGE TO THE EAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK. JENNA
  73. SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARDS FROM WEDNESDAY AS A IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE
  74. STEERING INFLUENCE CHANGES TO A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. JENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
  75. OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

  77. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  78. ==
  79. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 06/1330 UTC.=
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完美风暴

积分
62920
发表于 2026-1-6 16:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-1-6 18:00 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 94.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 94.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.8S 93.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.6S 92.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.0S 90.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 18.1S 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 17.8S 85.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 94.5E.
06JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 060900
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WARNING NR
  4. 004//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 94.8E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 243 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
  13. ISLANDS
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (JENNA) IS ANALYZED TO HAVE RAPIDLY
  19. INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, FROM 45 KTS TO 90 KTS. ANIMATED
  20. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TC 12S WITH A 10 NM
  21. PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE AND A DEFINED RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS
  22. SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. A 060711Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
  23. REVEALED WELL-DEFINED TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH A
  24. SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
  25. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN
  26. ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
  27. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND CIMSS
  28. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
  29. INDICATES THAT 12S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
  30. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL
  31. WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (27-28 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

  33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 060328Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA

  35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
  36. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA.


  39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  40.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
  41.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
  42.    APRF: T4.5 - 77 KTS
  43.    CIMSS ADT: 102 KTS AT 060600Z
  44.    CIMSS AIDT: 95 KTS AT 060600Z
  45.    CIMSS D-MINT: 100 KTS AT 060711Z
  46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 96 KTS AT 060600Z

  48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  49.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
  50.    SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
  51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  54.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM
  61. CAUSED NEAR-TERM INTENSITIES TO BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
  62. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

  64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 12S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  65. SOUTHWESTWARD, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH
  66. TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A WESTWARD TURN
  67. AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STR
  68. CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. A WESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE NORTHERN
  69. PERIPHERY OF THE STR, IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
  70. OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 12S IS FORECAST TO
  71. MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR BEGIN SLIGHTLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12
  72. HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
  73. AROUND 20 KTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR
  74. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE
  75. SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, 12S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU
  76. 48 TO AROUND 40 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS
  77. NEAR TAU 72 AS THE SHALLOW VORTEX CONTINUES TO TRACK OFF TO THE WEST.

  79. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
  80. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
  81. OUTLIERS. CROSS-TRACK AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS AROUND 80
  82. NM AND 140 NM RESPECTIVELY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE
  83. TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
  84. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12 AND
  85. RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO
  86. PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
  87. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING THE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
  88. 12-24 HOURS.

  90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
  92.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
  93. NNNN
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发表于 2026-1-6 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、曹越男  签发：向纯怡  2026 年 01 月 06 日 18 时
“詹纳”向西偏南方向移动

时  间: 6日14时（北京时）

海  域: 澳大利亚附近海域

命  名: “詹纳”，JENNA

中心位置: 南纬15.7度，东经94.7度

强度等级: 三级强热带气旋

最大风力: 13级，38米/秒，相当于我国的台风级

中心气压: 973百帕

参考位置: 距离科科斯群岛南偏西方向约455公里

变化过程: 过去24小时，“詹纳”强度由8级加强为13级

预报结论: “詹纳”将以每小时17公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度维持或略有加强



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年1月6日14时00分）

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发表于 2026-1-6 20:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-1-6 21:20 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1316 UTC 06/01/2026
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 94.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (221 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  06/1800: 16.8S  93.7E:     030 (060):  070  (130):  975
+12:  07/0000: 17.3S  93.0E:     040 (080):  065  (120):  979
+18:  07/0600: 17.8S  92.2E:     050 (090):  055  (100):  987
+24:  07/1200: 18.1S  91.6E:     055 (100):  050  (095):  988
+36:  08/0000: 18.4S  90.2E:     065 (115):  040  (075):  995
+48:  08/1200: 18.2S  88.3E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  999
+60:  09/0000: 18.0S  86.2E:     090 (165):  035  (065):  999
+72:  09/1200:             :              :            :     
+96:  10/1200:             :              :            :     
+120: 11/1200:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) has likely peaked and set to weaken during
Wednesday.  

The eye on infra-red and visible imagery has now gone with a subtle increase in
upper level winds obscuring the centre. Microwave imagery showed a well-defined
eye.  

Intensity is analysed at 80 kn based on Dvorak and SATCON and slightly lower
than ADT/AiDT.

Dvorak analysis: DT=4.5 based on embedded centre pattern (LG) following earlier
eye patterns. MET =4.5 based on a D 24-hour trend, no adjustment. FT=4.5 and CI
held higher at 5.0 (Note: CI at 0600UTC CI reanalysed to be 5.0). Objective
guidance at 1200 UTC (1-minute mean): CIMSS ADT 99 kn (FT/CI=4.8/5.4), AiDT 96
kn, DPRINT 90 kn, SATCON (0940 UTC) 89 kn.

Earlier scatterometry and model guidance used to determine structure which is
now quite asymetric with winds south of the centre.   

Jenna has enjoyed a favourable environment for intensifying - warm SSTs, strong
upper outflow to the south and low wind shear (CIMSS 12kn at 0600 UTC).
However, from now the north to northeast wind shear should increase and bring
drier air into the circulation. Weakening should become more rapid during
Wednesday as a result. Gales are likely to persist longer south of the centre
aided by its movement and the broadscale forcing from the ridge to the south.  

Jenna is currently being steered towards the southwest by a mid-level ridge to
the east. Guidance shows good agreement in the forecast west southwest track
then more westwards later Wednesday as a it begins to weaken and the steering
influence changes to a ridge to the south. Jenna is forecast to move out of the
Australian Region on Thursday morning.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/1930 UTC.
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:46 pm WST on Tuesday 6 January 2026

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (Category 3) was located at 8:00 pm AWST (7:00 pm
CXT) near 16.3S 94.2E,
that is 540 km south southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving southwest at
15 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is moving southwest further away from the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Jenna has peaked in intensity and will weaken during
Wednesday as it moves to the west southwest over open waters of the Indian
Ocean.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 am AWST Wednesday 07
January (2:00 am CXT Wednesday 07 January).


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 pm January 6316.3S94.2E35
+6hr2 am January 7316.8S93.7E60
+12hr8 am January 7317.3S93.0E80
+18hr2 pm January 7217.8S92.2E90
+24hr8 pm January 7218.1S91.6E100
+36hr8 am January 8tropical low18.4S90.2E115
+48hr8 pm January 8tropical low18.2S88.3E130
+60hr8 am January 9tropical low18.0S86.2E165
+72hr8 pm January 9tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

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发表于 2026-1-7 04:55 | 显示全部楼层
IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 3:04 am WST on Wednesday 7 January 2026

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (Category 3) was located at 2:00 am AWST (12:30
am CCT) near 16.8S 93.6E,
that is 620 km southwest of Cocos (Keeling) Islands moving southwest at 14
kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jenna (11U) is moving southwest further away from the
Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Jenna has peaked in intensity and will weaken during
Wednesday as it moves further southwest over open waters of the Indian Ocean.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Wednesday 07
January. .





Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am January 7316.8S93.6E45
+6hr8 am January 7217.4S93.0E70
+12hr2 pm January 7218.0S92.2E90
+18hr8 pm January 7218.4S91.6E100
+24hr2 am January 8118.6S90.9E105
+36hr2 pm January 8tropical low18.6S89.3E115
+48hr2 am January 9tropical low18.3S87.2E130
+60hr2 pm January 9tropical lowXXXXXXXXX
+72hr2 am January 10tropical lowXXXXXXXXX

  1. AXAU01 APRF 061928
  2. IDW27600
  3. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
  4. ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
  5. AT: 1928 UTC 06/01/2026
  6. NAME: SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA
  7. IDENTIFIER: 11U
  8. DATA AT: 1800 UTC
  9. LATITUDE: 16.8S
  10. LONGITUDE: 93.6E
  11. LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
  12. MOVEMENT TOWARDS: SOUTHWEST (229 DEG)
  13. SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 8 KNOTS (14 KM/H)
  14. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
  15. MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 100 KNOTS (185 KM/H)
  16. CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
  17. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 60 NM (110 KM)
  18. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 110 NM (205 KM)
  19. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 100 NM (185 KM)
  20. RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
  21. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 25 NM (45 KM)
  22. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
  23. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
  24. RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 25 NM (45 KM)
  25. RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS: 25 NM (45 KM)
  26. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 10 NM (20 KM)
  27. DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
  28. PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
  29. RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
  30. FORECAST DATA
  31. DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
  32. (UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
  33. +06:  07/0000: 17.4S  93.0E:     035 (070):  060  (110):  983
  34. +12:  07/0600: 18.0S  92.2E:     045 (090):  055  (100):  985
  35. +18:  07/1200: 18.4S  91.6E:     055 (100):  050  (095):  988
  36. +24:  07/1800: 18.6S  90.9E:     055 (105):  045  (085):  991
  37. +36:  08/0600: 18.6S  89.3E:     060 (115):  035  (065):  999
  38. +48:  08/1800: 18.3S  87.2E:     070 (130):  035  (065): 1000
  39. +60:  09/0600:             :              :            :
  40. +72:  09/1800:             :              :            :
  41. +96:  10/1800:             :              :            :
  42. +120: 11/1800:             :              :            :
  43. REMARKS:
  44. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JENNA (11U) HAS PEAKED AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
  45. WEDNESDAY.

  47. THE EYE ON INFRA-RED HAS NOW GONE ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETRY ALLOWS THE CENTRE
  48. LOCATION TO BE ESTIMATED WITH REASONABLE CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY IS ANALYSED AT
  49. 70 KN BASED ON DVORAK AND MOST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

  51. DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT=4.5 BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN (LG) FOLLOWING EARLIER
  52. EYE PATTERNS. MET=4.0 BASED ON A S 24-HOUR TREND WITH 0.5 PAT ADJUSTMENT.
  53. FT=4.0 AND CI HELD HIGHER AT 4.5. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AT 1800 UTC (1-MINUTE
  54. MEAN): CIMSS ADT 84 KN (FT/CI=4.2/4.8), AIDT 76 KN, DPRINT 91 KN, SATCON (1420
  55. UTC) 97 KN.

  57. RECENT ASCAT-B (1518 UTC) AND ASCAT-C (1556 UTC) PASSES INDICATE THE STRUCTURE
  58. WHICH IS NOW QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGEST AND MOST EXTENSIVE WINDS SOUTH OF
  59. THE CENTRE.

  61. JENNA HAS ENJOYED A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFYING - WARM SSTS, STRONG
  62. UPPER OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND LOW WIND SHEAR (CIMSS 10KN AT 1200 UTC).
  63. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
  64. CIRCULATION AND FROM NOW THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND
  65. BRING FURTHER DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION. WEAKENING SHOULD BECOME MORE
  66. RAPID DURING WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT. THE INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN GLOBAL
  67. MODELS BUT MORE CONSISTENT WITH TC MODELS HFSA AND COAMPS AND OBJECTIVE AIDS
  68. (ICNW). GALES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER SOUTH OF THE CENTRE DURING THURSDAY
  69. AIDED BY ITS MOVEMENT AND THE BROADSCALE FORCING FROM THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

  71. JENNA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
  72. THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM THEN GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD
  73. AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST BECOMING MORE WESTWARDS LATER WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
  74. WITH WEAKER INTENSITY TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST A LITTLE TOO SOON AND THE
  75. TRACK HAS BEEN BIASED TO STRONGER MODELS. JENNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OF 90E
  76. OUT OF THE AUSTRALIAN REGION DURING THURSDAY.

  78. COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
  79. ==
  80. THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 07/0130 UTC.=
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