|
|
本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-11-20 06:00 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 133.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 133.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 9.8S 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 10.1S 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 10.7S 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 11.4S 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.5S 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.6S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.9S 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 9.6S 133.0E. 19NOV25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S
(FINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 218 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA,
HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 192100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FINA) WARNING NR
- 007//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 9.5S 133.0E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 218 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED
- CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE, WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
- CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED CORE. A 191620Z AMSR2 37GHZ MICROWAVE
- IMAGE REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WITH STRONG AND DEEP
- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PREDOMINANTLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
- CIRCULATION, AND A NOTABLY DRIER AIR MASS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN SIDE. COMPARISON OF THE 89GHZ AND
- 37GHZ CHANNELS SUGGESTS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF WESTWARD VORTEX TILT WITH
- HEIGHT, CONFIRMING THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED EASTERLY SHEAR. ANIMATED
- WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EASTWARD FLOW AT THE OUTFLOW LEVEL,
- WITH A DISTINCT ARC CLOUD MARKING THE EASTERN REACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
- OUTFLOW. CIMSS HIGH-RESOLUTION ATMOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS CONTINUE TO
- SHOW INCREASING DIVERGENCE EAST OF TC 05S, WITH A SHARP SPLIT IN THE
- ENVIRONMENTAL 200MB FLOW BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR
- REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 22 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE
- LOCALIZED SHEAR IN DIRECT VICINITY OF TC 05S IS LIKELY LESS THAN THE
- AREA AVERAGED SHEAR ESTIMATES BASED ON THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
- FLOW PATTERN OBSERVED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
- ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM ABOM REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED BUT ASYMMETRIC
- EYE FEATURE, CONFIRMING THE OVERALL STRUCTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE
- MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUASI-STATIONARY
- OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BASED ON THE RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL
- POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE
- IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
- INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOTED BELOW. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
- OVERALL, WITH VERY WARM SSTS, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW TO
- MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN, WITH A NEAR
- EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA
- SOUTHEAST ALONG THE SOLOMONS AND WEAK NER NEAR JAVA.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
- ADRM: T3.5 - 55 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 61 KTS AT 191800Z
- CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 191730Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 49 KTS AT 191730Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 56 KTS AT 191642Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 56 KTS AT 191830Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
- AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INTENSITY TREND IN THE SHORT-TERM
- HAS BEEN REVERSED, NOW FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
- LANDFALL, RESULTING IN A SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM 55
- KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 05S IS CURRENTLY QUASI-STATIONARY, SITUATED
- WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF AUSTRALIA. OVER
- THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE NER NORTHEAST OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA IS FORECAST
- TO BUILD AND EXTEND TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL TURN TC 05S ONTO A MORE
- SOUTHERLY TRACK. BY TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS EXPECTED
- TO FORM OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA AND THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA,
- LEADING TC 05S TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWESTWARD SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
- THIS STR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN
- QUASI-STATIONARY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH
- THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE
- RELATIVELY HIGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND DRY AIR CURRENTLY IMPACTING
- THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO,
- INHIBITING TC 05S FROM ACHIEVING AXISYMMETRIZATION AND THUS PREVENTING
- MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THIS TIME FRAME. GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS
- INCLUDING GFS, ECMWF AND HAFS-A SUGGEST A GENERAL MOISTENING TREND
- OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF AND SHOW A SHARP DECREASE IN SHEAR
- BEGINNING AROUND TAU 30, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A RAPID SYMMETRIZATION AND
- VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF THE VORTEX AND THE ONSET OF RAPID
- INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE HAFS-A IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING RI,
- DEPICTING A 28MB DROP IN PRESSURE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 AND
- ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE, THE FACT THAT MULTIPLE MODELS
- CONCUR ON THE TIMING OF DECREASING SHEAR SUPPORTS THE FACT THAT THE
- SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS GARIG GUNAK BARLU
- NATIONAL PARK AND INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS
- FOR A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS, BUT IF THE SYSTEM CAN ACHIEVE RAPID
- CONSOLIDATION, A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY IS A POSSIBILITY.
- THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, WHICH WILL
- RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE CITY, BUT A
- HIGHER PEAK EARLIER IN THE FORECAST WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER INTENSITY
- IMPACT ON DARWIN. AFTER MOVING INTO THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF THE
- SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WARM WATERS,
- HOWEVER INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL CONSTRAIN THE
- STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES A THIRD LANDFALL BY TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
- SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLES, DISPLAYING TWO DISTINCT GROUPINGS. THE
- NORTHERN GROUP (GEFS, EGRR, GALWEM) DEPICT THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER
- THE TIWI ISLANDS, THEN REMAINING NORTH OF 12S THROUGH TAU 120. THE
- REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE (GFS, ECMWF, ECENS, EC-AIFS, GDM AND THE
- CONSENSUS MEAN) ARE ENSCONCED IN AN ENVELOPE THAT GRADUALLY EXPANDS
- TO 135NM AT TAU 120, AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM OVER THE NATIONAL PARK,
- THEN STRADDLES THE COAST NORTHEAST OF DARWIN OR OVER THE CHANNEL
- BETWEEN DARWIN AND THE TIWI ISLANDS, THEN INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF
- BEFORE CLIPPING THE COAST NORTH OF KALUMBURU BY TAU 120. AI MODELS
- ARE TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH BOTH
- THE AIFS AND THE GDM FGN TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST OF
- DARWIN BEFORE LOOPING BACK INTO THE VAN DIEMEN GULF. THE JTWC
- FORECAST IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN, CLOSE TO THE
- ECMWF AND EC-AIFS TRACKERS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO
- UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, AND THE LARGE
- SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
- SOMEWHAT SPLIT, WITH THE GFS, CTCX AND COTC SHOWING WEAKENING
- THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY RI THEREAFTER. THE SHIPS, AND CONSENSUS
- MEAN HOWEVER DEPICT A FLAT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48 FOLLOWED BY
- GENERAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER, WHILE THE HAFS-A DEPICTS A FLAT TREND
- TO TAU 36, FOLLOWED BY EXTREME RI TO A PEAK OF 120 KNOTS AT TAU
- 48, THEN WEAKENING AND REINTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 96.
- ADDITIONALLY, THE CHR4 AND SEVERAL CIMSS AI-RI RI AIDS ARE TRIPPED.
- THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN TO TAU 24, THEN
- ABOUT 10 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
- FORECAST, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: 大水台6
发表于 2025-11-19 15:00
发表于 2025-11-20 02:28
