阿拉伯海北部强气旋风暴“沙赫提”(ARB 02/02A.Shakhti) - 将西行回旋 - JTWC:75KT

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ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 22.2N 64.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 64.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 21.9N 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 21.5N 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 21.2N 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.6N 62.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 20.3N 63.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 21.0N 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 64.5E.
04OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
347 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040000Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 040300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 005//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 22.2N 64.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 347 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH CURVED BANDING OVER THE
    
19. WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLC. A 032152Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
20. REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
    
21. FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH MEDIUM
    
22. CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
23. CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE
    
24. ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 41-58 KNOTS FURTHER BOLSTERING THE JTWC INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
    
26. 
    
27. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
28. 
    
29. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING PATTERN WITH A STRONG
    
30. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST, AND A
    
31. WEAKER STR TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
    
32. 
    
33. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
34.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
35.    CIMSS SATCON: 58 KTS AT 032118Z
    
36.    CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 040000Z
    
37.    CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 032000Z
    
38.    CIMSS D-MINT: 51 KTS AT 032154Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 44 KTS AT 040000Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 0-5 KTS
    
43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
45.    OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
58. SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
    
59. PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE SAUDI
    
60. PENINSULA. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THIS
    
61. PERIOD. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BE EFFECTIVELY BOXED IN WITH
    
62. RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST (SAUDI PENINSULA), TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
63. (EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL INDIA) AND TO THE SOUTH (BUILDING
    
64. RIDGE). CONSEQUENTLY, TRACK MOTION WILL BE ERRATIC, WITH A SLOW
    
65. TURN SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD. DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY
    
66. SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THIS STALL AND TURN, WITH A LARGE
    
67. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS. TC 02A IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY
    
68. AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH
    
69. ALL LEVELS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY
    
70. DRY ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU
    
71. 96. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, IT WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO
    
72. EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
    
73. RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
76. THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUICKLY WITH
    
77. INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND MAJOR
    
78. DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SHARP EASTWARD RECURVE. DESPITE
    
79. THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN, PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN
    
80. FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. OVERALL, THERE
    
81. IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE
    
82. PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS HAMPERING
    
83. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
88.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
89.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
90. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：董 林  2025 年 10 月 04 日 10 时
“沙赫提”于昨天在阿拉伯海生成

时        间:   4日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北印度洋

命        名:    “沙赫提”，SHAKHTI

中心位置:    北纬22.2度，东经64.7度

强度等级:    强气旋风暴

最大风力:    10级，25米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    993百帕

参考位置:    距离巴基斯坦卡拉奇西南方向约390公里

变化过程:    过去12小时，“沙赫提”强度由8级加强为10级

预报结论:   “沙赫提”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度缓慢增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月4日08时00分）

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ygsj24

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 64.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 64.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 21.5N 62.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 21.1N 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 20.8N 61.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 20.5N 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 20.0N 63.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 63.8E.
04OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
236 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
040600Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 040900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.9N 64.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
    
18. WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH COOLING UPPER-
    
19. LEVEL CLOUDS TOPS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC IN THE
    
20. SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
    
21. ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    
22. WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW,
    
23. SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
    
24. PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL WRAPPING
    
25. AND THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE FORMING IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
    
26. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
    
27. ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS LISTED BELOW.
    
28. 
    
29. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
30. 
    
31. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
    
32. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST.
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
36.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
37.    CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 040300Z
    
38.    CIMSS AIDT: 37 KTS AT 040500Z
    
39.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 47 KTS AT 040530Z
    
40. 
    
41. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
42.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
43.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
44.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
45.    OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A IS FORECAST TO
    
58. CONTINUE ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AS 02A IS
    
59. INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING
    
60. RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS 36-48, THE WEAKER STR OVER THE INDIAN
    
61. SUBCONTINENT WILL BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST, CAUSING 02A TO STALL
    
62. IN THE INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 02A IS
    
63. FORECAST TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTH DURING THIS TIME, BUT MODELS ARE IN
    
64. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT OVER WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN WILL OCCUR.
    
65. ONCE THE TURN IS COMPLETED, AROUND TAU 48, 02A IS EXPECTED TO BE
    
66. PICKED UP BY THE NOW DOMINANT STR TO ITS SOUTH AND TRACK
    
67. EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72. REGARDING
    
68. INTENSITY, 02A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 60 KTS AT TAU
    
69. 12, BEFORE BEGINNING A CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN TAUS
    
70. 24-72. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR NO LATER THAN TAU 72, DUE TO
    
71. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SMOTHER THE
    
72. SYSTEM. SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THIS TIME, TO
    
73. 20-25 KTS, CONTRIBUTING TO EXPEDITED DISSIPATION.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
76. THROUGH TAU 36, WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
    
77. AFTERWARDS, HOWEVER, TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH LARGE
    
78. DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED AND HOW SHARP OF A TURN 02A WILL
    
79. TAKE. NAVGEM IS THE LARGEST OUTLIER IN JTWC CONSENSUS, HOLDING 02A
    
80. ON A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU 60. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
    
81. MEAN FALLS IN THE OTHER EXTREME, FORECASTING 02A TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
    
82. RECURVE AT TAU 36 BEFORE TRACKING DUE EAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
    
83. IS MOST SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC, SLIGHTLY TO THE
    
84. EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. AS A RESULT OF THE LARGE
    
85. MODEL DISCREPANCIES, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST PLACED WITH OVERALL
    
86. LOW CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS
    
87. IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ALL MODELS
    
88. FORECASTING A PEAK AT TAU 12 BEFORE CONSISTENTLY WEAKENING,
    
89. SUPPORTING THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST WITH OVERALL MEDIUM
    
90. CONFIDENCE.
    
91. 
    
92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
93.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
    
94.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
95. NNNN

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐润杰、刘涛  签发：许映龙  2025 年 10 月 04 日 18 时
“沙赫提”向西方向移动

时        间:   4日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北印度洋

命        名:    “沙赫提”，SHAKHTI

中心位置:    北纬22.0度，东经64.0度

强度等级:    强气旋风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    992百帕

参考位置:    距离阿曼马斯喀特东南方向约750公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“沙赫提”强度由8级加强为10级

预报结论:   “沙赫提”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度缓慢增强



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年10月4日14时00分）

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WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 63.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 63.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 20.9N 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 20.5N 61.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 20.2N 61.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 20.0N 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 19.6N 63.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 63.1E.
04OCT25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
264 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDIO31 PGTW 041500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (SHAKHTI) WARNING
   
4. NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 21.3N 63.4E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
    
18. WELL-DEFINED, COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
    
19. CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
20. (TC) 02A HAS STRUGGLED TO FORM AN EYE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS,
    
21. HOWEVER, A RAGGED EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY PEEKED OUT FROM UNDER THE
    
22. CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 041348Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
23. REVEALS A SYMMETRICAL MICROWAVE EYE, INDICATIVE OF INTENSIFICATION
    
24. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
    
25. OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29C) SEA
    
26. SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    
27. SHEAR, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MINOR MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
    
28. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
    
29. HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
    
30. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
    
31. BASED ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY AIDS
    
32. LISTED BELOW.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
    
37. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
41.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
42.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS SATCON: 70 KTS AT 040922Z
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 74 KTS AT 041200Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 67 KTS AT 041100Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-MINT: 64 KTS AT 041144Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 64 KTS AT 041200Z
    
48. 
    
49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
50.    VWS: 15-20 KTS
    
51.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
52.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
53.    OTHER FACTORS: MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 02A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS
    
66. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 AS 02A IS INFLUENCED BY THE
    
67. SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY STEERING RIDGE. BETWEEN TAUS
    
68. 12-36, THE WEAKER STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN INDIA AND THE
    
69. ARABIAN SEA WILL BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST AND WEST, CAUSING 02A
    
70. TO STALL IN THE INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. 02A
    
71. WILL BEGIN A RECURVE AROUND TAU 24, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN
    
72. SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT OVER WHERE THE TURN WILL OCCUR. AFTER TAU
    
73. 24, 02A IS EXPECTED TO ENTER UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
    
74. NOW DOMINANT STR TO ITS SOUTH AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL
    
75. DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72. REGARDING INTENSITY, 02A IS EXPECTED TO
    
76. MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 65 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BEFORE
    
77. BEGINNING A CONSISTENT WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL LEAD TO
    
78. DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 72. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE
    
79. RAPID DETERIORATION DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
    
80. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT ALL LEVELS.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
    
83. THROUGH TAU 24. ALL MODELS PREDICT A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAVE
    
84. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED THAT IMPACT WHERE 02A WILL
    
85. RECURVE. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW THE RECURVE BEGINNING AT TAU
    
86. 36; HOWEVER, THE LOCATION OF TAU 36 VARIES GREATLY AMONGST MEMBERS.
    
87. NAVGEM REMAINS THE LARGEST OUTLIER IN JTWC CONSENSUS, HOLDING 02A
    
88. ON A STRAIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU 60. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
    
89. MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC GFS TRACKS FALL IN THE OTHER EXTREME, BOTH
    
90. FORECASTING 02A TO MAKE A HAIRPIN RECURVE AT TAU 36 BEFORE TRACKING
    
91. DUE EAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF
    
92. DETERMINISTIC, ECMWF ENSEMBLES, AND GALWEM, SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
    
93. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN. AS A RESULT OF THE POOR MODEL
    
94. AGREEMENT, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST PLACED WITH OVERALL LOW
    
95. CONFIDENCE. CONVERSELY, RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
96. AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE MINOR
    
97. DIFFERENCES ON WHETHER 02A WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OR BEGIN ITS
    
98. WEAKENING TREND, OPENING UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A PEAK INTENSITY
    
99. HIGHER THAN 65 KTS. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
100. PLACED WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
     
101. 
     
102. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
103.    TRACK 00-72 HR: LOW
     
104.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

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