背风群岛以北五级飓风“温贝托”(08L.Humberto) - 西北行进，风眼开出，快速增强 - NHC:140KT

普通的台风迷

北大西洋似乎很不甘心全球风王被西北太平洋抢去，于是派出了“温贝托”再次尝试争夺全球风王之位。

！海燕

极快的开眼速度，一度wmg C1
已升95kt

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 262037
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Satellite data indicate Humberto has strengthened into the third
major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The eye of
the hurricane has cleared out this afternoon and is surrounded by a
ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops. Based on these
developments, the latest subjective Dvorak classifications and
objective intensity estimates have risen to 90-102 kt. The initial
intensity of Humberto is set at 100 kt for this advisory. NOAA buoy
41044, located about 50 n mi southwest of the center, has reported
falling pressures and tropical-storm-force gusts this afternoon.

Humberto remains in a low shear environment over very warm
sea-surface temperatures, and its well-defined inner core structure
appears conducive to further intensification unless an eyewall
replacement cycle occurs. The latest intensity guidance favors
continued strengthening, and this is reflected in the updated NHC
forecast. There are differences noted in the upper-air pattern of
the global models later in the period, likely related to the
evolution and future path of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. But in
general, increasing deep-layer shear over the hurricane should
induce at least gradual weakening by early next week. Although the
peak winds are forecast to decrease, the wind field is expected to
expand as Humberto gains latitude and curves around Bermuda at days
3-5.

The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward (295/4 kt). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should continue through the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest later this
weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed as a subtropical
ridge slides eastward over the central Atlantic. A slight southward
adjustment was made to the near-term NHC track forecast based on
today's trends, but otherwise this portion of the forecast is
similar to the previous one. Later in the period, the models are
fairly consistent on a sharp recurvature of the hurricane between
the ridge and an upper trough digging over the northwestern
Atlantic, though there are larger along-track speed differences
noted. This part of the forecast generally lies between the
multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 22.3N  58.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  27/0600Z 22.4N  59.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
24H  27/1800Z 22.8N  60.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
36H  28/0600Z 23.4N  62.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
48H  28/1800Z 24.6N  64.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
60H  29/0600Z 26.0N  66.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
72H  29/1800Z 27.7N  67.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  30/1800Z 31.7N  68.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/1800Z 35.5N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 270238
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Humberto has continued to intensify rapidly this evening.  The eye
temperature has increased to 15C and the eyewall white ring (-73C)
is nearly closed.  A 2137 UTC WSFM-1 HiRes microwave pass indicated
that a concentric ring was developing about 65 nm from the eye. The
initial intensity is raised to 125 kt and is close to the UW-CIMSS
ADT of T6.4 and above the constrained subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

All intensity contributions, low shear, warm waters, and ample
mid-level moisture, appear conducive for Humberto to intensify
rapidly during the next 12-24 hours.  DTOPS guidance indicates
a high probability of RI during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest
official intensity forecast follows suit, bringing Humberto to a
peak intensity of 140 kt Saturday night.  By the 36 hour period,
however, inner-core fluctuations as a result of eyewall replacement
cycles (ERC) are possible, and it's difficult to forecast the exact
timing.  It's worth mentioning, however, that the UW-CIMSS M-PERC
(Microwave-based Probability of Eyewall Replacement Cycle)
statistical model is predicting a 61 percent of onset.  By mid-next
week, increasing vertical shear spreading over Humberto should
induce a gradual weakening trend.  At the same time, while it passes
west of Bermuda, a significant expansion in the surface wind field
will likely occur.  The NHC intensity forecast is just above the
previous forecast through the 36 hour period, and closely follows a
blend of the HCCA consensus and the HAFS/HWRF/HMON hurricane models.

Humberto has taken a trochoidal jog to the left of the track this
evening, likely due to the rapid intensification event. The initial
motion is estimated to be slightly south of due west, or 265/6 kt.  
Humberto is expected to move slowly toward the west or
west-northwest during the next day or so in the easterly steering
flow provided by mid-tropospheric high pressure located to the north
of the cyclone and just east of Bermuda.  Around the 48 hour period,
or Sunday evening, a northwestward turn with some reduction in
forward speed is forecast while the above-mentioned high pressure
weakens and shifts eastward.  By day 4, Humberto should commence a
rather abrupt turn northward and northeastward in response to a
major shortwave upper-level trough amplifying and moving out of
northeastern Canada and into the northwestern Atlantic.  The
official track forecast is located just to the left of the previous
advisory, primarily due to the initial motion left of track, and
lies between the HCCA corrected consensus and the Google DeepMind
ensemble model.

NOAA buoy 41044, located about 38 n mi southwest of the center, has
reported falling pressure,sustained tropical-storm-force winds,
gusts just below hurricane-force and 17 ft seas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 22.1N  58.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  27/1200Z 22.2N  59.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  28/0000Z 22.7N  61.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  28/1200Z 23.6N  63.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  29/0000Z 24.8N  65.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
60H  29/1200Z 26.2N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  30/0000Z 27.9N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  01/0000Z 32.1N  68.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/0000Z 36.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛  签发：张玲  2025 年 09 月 27 日 10 时
“温贝托”加强为四级飓风

时        间:   27日08时

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经58.4度，北纬22.1度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级以上，62米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    940百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋开曼群岛东北方向约660公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由10级加强为17级以上

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度继续增强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月27日08时00分）

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛  签发：张玲  2025 年 09 月 27 日 18 时
“温贝托”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   27日14时

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经58.9度，北纬22.2度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级以上，64米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    940百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋开曼群岛东北方向约620公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“温贝托”强度由10级加强为17级以上

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时11公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度先增强，再逐渐减弱。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月27日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTNT43 KNHC 270845
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 AM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto seems to have paused its meteoric rise for the moment.  
The eye has become smaller and more distorted based on GOES
satellite imagery.  An AMSR2 microwave pass showed some evidence
that the concentric rings mentioned in the previous discussion have
contracted, indicating an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle.  The
microwave images also displayed classic hurricane structure, with
curved banding in all quadrants and no signs of dry air intrusions.  
The satellite intensity estimates have leveled off overnight, and
the initial intensity is held at 125 kt, closest to the UW-CIMSS ADT
of T6.3.  

While internal dynamics may have interrupted Humberto's
strengthening, the hurricane still has about a day of conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions to intensify.  Some of the
regional hurricane models show slight strengthening, though most of
the model guidance suggests Humberto will hold generally steady for
the next couple of days.  By next week, the vertical wind shear is
expected to increase and induce a gradual weakening trend.  As
Humberto gains latitude, a significant expansion in the surface wind
field will likely occur while it passes west of Bermuda.  
Phase-space analyses of global model forecasts by day 5 show
Humberto as an extratropical cyclone, or close to one.  The latest
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction
and lies on the high end of the guidance in the short-term.

The hurricane is moving westward at 5 kt.  A subtropical ridge
centered over the western Atlantic should slowly steer Humberto to
the west or west-northwest during the next day or so, then turn the
cyclone to the northwest and north-northwest by early next week.  By
day 4, an amplifying upper-level trough moving out of the Canadian
Maritimes is expected to rapidly steer Humberto northeastward.  The
NHC track forecast shifted slightly eastward this cycle and is a
little quicker at days 4 and 5.  It lies between the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean and the previous prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 22.3N  59.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
12H  27/1800Z 22.6N  60.5W  135 KT 155 MPH
24H  28/0600Z 23.3N  62.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
36H  28/1800Z 24.4N  64.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
48H  29/0600Z 25.8N  66.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
60H  29/1800Z 27.3N  67.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
72H  30/0600Z 29.1N  68.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
96H  01/0600Z 33.4N  66.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  02/0600Z 37.7N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Bucci

觀雲趣

MWI 89GHz




AMSR 89GHz



MWI 89GHz

9916-Bart

Humberto要和Ragasa对决了

hei

留個紀錄記下美姿