墨西哥以西热带风暴“马里奥”(13E.Mario) - 短暂成旋，再度发展

ygsj24

2025 - 162 - EPB5 - EP13 - MARIO
持续时长：102 小时
最大风速：35 节
最低气压：1006 百帕
ACE：0.245

时刻（UTC）	所在纬度	所在经度	风速（节）	气压（百帕）	强度等级
2025/09/09 00:00	10.4N	90.0W	20	0	DB
2025/09/09 06:00	11.0N	90.9W	20	0	DB
2025/09/09 12:00	11.4N	92.3W	20	0	DB
2025/09/09 18:00	11.7N	93.7W	20	1009	DB
2025/09/10 00:00	12.0N	95.0W	20	1009	DB
2025/09/10 06:00	13.0N	95.8W	20	1009	DB
2025/09/10 12:00	13.1N	96.2W	25	1008	DB
2025/09/10 18:00	13.4N	96.6W	25	1008	DB
2025/09/11 00:00	13.9N	97.5W	25	1008	DB
2025/09/11 06:00	14.5N	97.8W	25	1009	DB
2025/09/11 12:00	14.9N	98.1W	25	1009	DB
2025/09/11 18:00	15.4N	98.3W	30	1009	TD
2025/09/12 00:00	15.9N	99.1W	30	1007	TD
2025/09/12 06:00	16.5N	100.2W	30	1007	TD
2025/09/12 12:00	17.0N	101.3W	35	1006	TS
2025/09/12 18:00	17.3N	102.4W	35	1006	TS
2025/09/13 00:00	17.9N	104.0W	30	1008	TD
2025/09/13 06:00	18.3N	105.3W	25	0	TD

ygsj24

022
ABPZ20 KNHC 131752
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle of next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks westward to west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett

ygsj24

141
ABPZ20 KNHC 140549
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of Baja California Peninsula:
An area of low pressure located south of the Baja California
Peninsula, which includes the remnants of Mario, is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of
next week as it tracks slowly westward.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early next week.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves westward around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

普通的台风迷

这个低压区如果重新发展起来了会继续叫Mario吗？

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Baja California Peninsula (Ex-Mario):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized with
the the remnants of Mario, located a few hundred miles south of the
Baja California Peninsula. Earlier satellite wind data also
indicated the circulation had become better defined.  If the ongoing
deep convection persists, Mario is likely to become a tropical
cyclone again, and advisories may be re-initiated as soon as later
this morning as the system moves slowly westward at around 10 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



2. Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could develop well offshore of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico early this week.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development as
the low tracks west-northwestward around 10 to 15 mph.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South and Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have decreased since
yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become less
conducive for development during the next few days as the system
moves westward around 10 mph, and the potential for tropical cyclone
development appears to be decreasing.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

pocketbox

WTPN21 PHNC 141300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS 13E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 110.0W TO 19.3N 113.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 110.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 13E) IS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N
110.3W, APPROXIMATELY 53 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THE REMNANTS OF 13E
RE-CONSOLIDATING WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ENSEMBLE MODELS DISPLAY A SIMILAR TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
ECENS HAVING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR DEVELOPMENT AMONGST THE MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151300Z.
//
NNNN

pocketbox

WTPZ43 KNHC 141443
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
800 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

Overnight and this morning, convection has increased in both
coverage and organization with the remnants of Mario, which is now
just east-southeast of Socorro Island. Earlier scatterometer data
from a Metop-B pass at 0428 UTC indicated that a well-defined center
had reformed with a peak wind retrieval of 27 kt. Given the
improvement of the system's structure on satellite imagery since
that time, it appears that Mario is now on its second life as a
tropical cyclone. There was some question as to if this system was
fully Mario, or some combination with another disturbance it is
interacting with embedded in the monsoon trough to the south.
However, there appears to be enough continuity between the prior
circulation we were tracking near the coast of Mexico on Friday and
the reformation of this new center to indicate this system is the
same entity. The initial intensity this advisory is being set to 35
kt, in good agreement with the 12 UTC TAFB Dvorak fix of T2.5/35 kt,
a DPRINT estimate of 36 kt at 13 UTC, and a recent pressure
observation of 1005 mb at Socorro Island, which appears to be just
to the northwest of the tropical storm.

Mario is estimated to be moving slowly to the west-northwest at
285/7 kt. This general motion should continue for the next several
days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered
over Mexico. Beyond 48 hours, Mario will likely become a shallow
tropical cyclone and bend more westward before it dissipates in 3-4
days. The NHC track forecast is in fairly good agreement with the
guidance aids, and generally is close to the simple and corrected
consensus aids.

Mario is in a favorable environment currently, with low shear under
10 kt, warm sea-surface temperatures between 28-30C, and plenty of
mid-level moisture. These favorable conditions persist for about 36
hours, and intensification is shown in the forecast, not that far
off the most recent HAFS-B forecast. Afterwards, Mario will cross a
very sharp temperature gradient while vertical wind shear also
increases out of the southwest. Thus, Mario will likely weaken
quickly between 48-60 h, losing its organized convection to become a
shallow remnant low by 60 h, and dissipating entirely in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast is a bit on the high side of the overall
guidance envelope, but is close to the peak intensity of the latest
HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 18.5N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 19.9N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 22.1N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
60H  17/0000Z 23.4N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin

普通的台风迷

NHC最终判定为Mario复活，但是剩余的增强时间并不多。
不过能够再次发展起来已经很不错了。

ygsj24

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 142033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132025
200 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025

A large, cold convective burst formed over the center of Mario
around 13Z this morning and subsequently expanded, and the burst has
persisted since that time.  A 1657 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed several
34-38 kt vectors within 30 miles of Mario's center.  The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt
from SAB, while recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in
the 40-45 kt range.  Winds at Socorro Island, located less than 30 n
mi west-southwest of the center, are up to 20 kt gusting to 29 kt,
with a 1006 mb pressure.  The initial intensity is increased to 40
kt for this advisory.

The aforementioned ASCAT pass and surface observations from Socorro
Island have been helpful at estimating the initial position of
Mario, which is slightly to the east of the previous NHC forecast.  
The current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be slowly toward
the west-northwest at 300/6 kt. This general motion should continue
for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer
ridging centered over Mexico.  The GFS and Google DeepMind models
are on the right, or north side of the guidance envelope, whereas
the ECMWF and HCCA lie on the left or southern side of the guidance.
The latest NHC forecast is adjusted slightly to the right, or east,
of the previous official forecast, fairly close to a blend of the
latest HCCA and TVCE models.

Mario will continue to be in a favorable environment for
strengthening for another 24-30 hours, with low shear under 10 kt,
warm sea-surface temperatures, and plenty of mid-level moisture.  By
hour 30, the sea-surface temperatures will be below 27C and then
below 26C by hour 36.  Around the same time, southwesterly shear
will begin increasing while the mid-level moisture and instability
plummet.  These conditions favor the commencement of weakening on
Monday night.  All model guidance, including the latest hi-res
hurricane models, do not show more than about 10 kt of additional
strengthening.  In fact, the latest intensity forecast is at the
high end of the model guidance envelope through 24 h.  Given the
favorable environment for the next 24 h, a higher peak intensity in
the 55-60 kt range should not be ruled out.  By 36 h, the NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope.  The cyclone should become a
remnant low in 48-60 h and dissipate just beyond 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 18.9N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 19.6N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 20.4N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 21.5N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 22.8N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
60H  17/0600Z 24.0N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/1800Z 24.9N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen