LOW - 吕宋岛东南93W - 14.3N 123.5E - 或将进入南海发展 - JMA:LPA

新大陆

1996莎莉 发表于 2025-8-25 22:33
2015彩虹就是奇迹了，近岸爆发至C4登陆

忘不掉这个，目前为止经历过风毁最严重的

新大陆

海南省农业厅消息：
根据气象部门预报菲律宾以东海域的热带扰动将于2025年8月27日前后进入南海东部海面并生成热带低压，风力逐渐增强，趋向海南岛方向移动，将带来风雨天气。南海热带低压的生成、位置、路线、强度具有较大不确定性，随机变化概率较大，安全风险极高，渔船冒险出海容易造成人员伤亡和渔船损毁事故。

pocketbox

ABPW10 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/252100Z-260600ZAUG2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251351ZAUG2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 25AUG25 1200Z, TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.6N 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, AND HAD
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 251500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N
123.5E, APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
251308Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF 93W, AND A CENTER OF BROAD ROTATION POSITIONED OVER OR
NEAR CATANDUANES ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30 C), AND MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. PROXIMITY TO LAND AND A HIGHLY TILTED
VORTEX ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONSOLIDATION. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 93W HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF LUZON, BEFORE CROSSING LUZON OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE SPLIT, WITH
ECENS AND GDM, FNV3 FAVORING WEAK DEVELOPMENT EAST OF LUZON, FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS LUZON INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GEFS
ON THE OTHER HAND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND FAVORS DEVELOPMENT ON THE
WEST SIDE OF LUZON.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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