背风群岛以东热带风暴“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛 畅、刘 涛  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 08 月 12 日 10 时
北大西洋热带风暴“埃林”生成

时        间:   12日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经31.3度，北纬17.6度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1004百帕

参考位置:    距离亚速尔群岛偏南方向约2350公里

变化过程:    “埃林”于昨天（8月11日）夜间生成

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时30-35公里的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月12日08时00分）

ygsj24

081
WTNT45 KNHC 120233
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025

After struggling earlier during the diurnal convective minimum, a
large convective burst has formed and persisted over the center of
Erin for the past several hours, and a recent GPM microwave pass
from 11/2237 UTC confirmed that the low-level center is underneath
this burst.  The latest subjective intensity estimates range from
35-45 kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
crept up slightly to the 40-45 kt range.  The initial intensity is
held at 40 kt, which might be a tad conservative.

Erin continues moving quickly westward, with the latest motion
estimated at 275/18 kt.  This general motion with a gradual decrease
in forward speed is expected over the next 2 to 3 days as the
tropical storm is steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its
north.  Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should
erode some, which would allow Erin to turn toward the west-northwest
and gain some latitude.  However, there are some differences in the
global models as to how significant the weakness in the ridge will
be, and this will affect how far north the cyclone gets by day 5.  
Some of the recent model solutions are a bit farther to the left (or
southwest) at the end of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is
nudged only very slightly to the left at days 4-5, and now lies
slightly to the north of the latest consensus aids.  Based on the
model spread, the confidence in the track forecast appears to be
about average.

Erin is expected to remain in low vertical wind shear conditions for
the next 3-4 days.  The thermodynamic environment is less favorable
in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around
26-27C, and stable stratocumulus clouds noted just to the west and
northwest of Erin.  Only slow strengthening is forecast during the
next 1 to 2 days until Erin reaches warmer water.  A faster rate of
intensification is anticipated after that time.  The latest NHC
forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies slightly
below the intensity consensus for the first 36 h.  Thereafter, the
NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance
envelope.  It is possible that vertical wind shear could increase in
4 to 5 days, but that will depend on where the upper-level ridge is
situated in relation to Erin, which is uncertain at this time.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 17.6N  32.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  12/1200Z 17.4N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  13/0000Z 17.2N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/1200Z 17.1N  42.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  14/0000Z 17.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  14/1200Z 18.0N  48.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  15/0000Z 18.7N  51.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  16/0000Z 20.3N  56.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 21.9N  61.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen

菜园子

此报较上报资瓷发展

ygsj24

228
WTNT45 KNHC 120845
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

The storm has not become significantly better organized on
geostationary satellite imagery over the past few hours.  Deep
convection has diminished in intensity, as evidenced by a warming of
the cloud tops.  An AMSR microwave image from a few hours ago showed
a well-defined banding feature over the southern semicircle of the
system.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45
kt and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are generally near 40 kt.  
Thus the advisory intensity is held at 40 kt.

Erin continues its rapid westward motion, at around 265/19 kt.  
A strong 500 mb ridge is situated to the north of the cyclone,
resulting in a strong easterly steering current.  The tropical
cyclone should continue on a general westward heading for the next
few days with a gradual decrease in forward speed as the ridge
weakens slightly.  Later in the forecast period, the ridge is
expected to weaken a little more, and a more west-northwestward
track is likely.   The official forecast track is a little left, or
south, of the previous one in 3-5 days, and very close to the
latest dynamical model consensus.  This also very similar to the
mean of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.  The spread of the track
models suggest near-average confidence in the NHC forecast.

During the forecast period, Erin will be traversing warmer
ocean waters and the SHIPS model diagnoses low vertical wind shear
over the system for the next several days.  However, the model does
not indicate an increase in the environmental low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity during the next 72 hours or so.  
Nonetheless, given the low shear and increasing SSTs, strengthening
is expected.  The official intensity forecast is at the high end of
the model guidance and shows Erin becoming a major hurricane in
around 5 days.  There is significant uncertainty in intensity
predictions at this time range.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may
bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of
the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the
hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your
preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 17.4N  34.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  12/1800Z 17.2N  37.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  13/0600Z 17.0N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 17.0N  43.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  14/0600Z 17.4N  46.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  14/1800Z 18.0N  49.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  15/0600Z 18.7N  52.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  16/0600Z 20.0N  58.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  17/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：葛 畅、刘 涛  签发：向纯怡  2025 年 08 月 12 日 18 时
“埃林”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   12日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经33.3度，北纬17.5度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1004百帕

参考位置:    距离亚速尔群岛南偏西方向约2380公里

变化过程:    过去12小时，“埃林”强度变化不大

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月12日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 121448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Erin still has a well-defined low-level circulation, but the
convective pattern has degraded since overnight, with only a band
of moderate convection located within the southern part of the
circulation.  A 1226 UTC ASCAT-C pass showed a maximum wind barb of
36 kt north of the center, and the intensity is held at a possibly
generous 40 kt.  Most likely, this is a result of Erin's fast
motion, which has been south of due west (265 deg) at about 20 kt.

The guidance suite indicates that Erin may continue to lose some
latitude during the next 24 to 36 hours due to strong low- to
mid-level ridging over the eastern and central Atlantic, but overall
the general motion should be westward through early Thursday.  After
that time, indications are that the ridge may weaken over the
western and central Atlantic, causing Erin to turn
west-northwestward, but there are model discrepancies on when
that might happen and where the break in the ridge actually forms.
The trend has been for a weaker Erin in the short term and possibly
a stronger ridge, and a number of track models, including HAFS-A and
-B, HWRF, the European, HCCA, and the Google Deep Mind, have shifted
south and west for much of the 5-day forecast.  The NHC forecast has
shifted in that direction accordingly, and it should be noted that a
significant number of deterministic models and ensemble members
still lie even farther south.

The environment of marginal water temperatures (26-27 deg Celsius)
and low atmospheric instability and moisture appear to remain
nearly constant for the next 24 hours or so.  Therefore, little to
no intensification is expected through early Wednesday.  The
environment and water temperatures become much more suitable for
strengthening by 48 hours, and since the cyclone already has a
well-defined structure, it could become a hurricane by late
Thursday.  Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and
the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane
by day 5 (early Sunday).  There is quite a lot of spread in the
intensity models, and the NHC prediction is in the upper regime of
the envelope, close to the SHIPS model, Florida State
Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although it is still too early to know exactly what impacts Erin
might bring to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico, the risk has increased for Erin to move closer to
these islands over the weekend.  Interests there should monitor the
progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts, if any, might
occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east
coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week.  As we approach
the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an
opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 17.2N  36.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  13/0000Z 16.8N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1200Z 16.5N  42.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/0000Z 16.6N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  14/1200Z 17.1N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  15/0000Z 17.8N  51.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  15/1200Z 18.5N  54.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  16/1200Z 19.8N  60.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 21.4N  65.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

050
WTNT45 KNHC 122033
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Not much has changed with Erin's structure since this morning.  A
little bit of convection has formed over the low-level center, but
overall the shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited.  Due
to the cyclone's fast motion, it is assumed that the maximum winds
have not decreased, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

A quick south-of-due-west motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours, with strong low- to mid-level ridging located to the
north over the central and eastern Atlantic.  Global models
indicate that ridge is likely to weaken in a few days, which should
cause Erin to begin moving west-northwestward in about 60 hours,
with that motion continuing through day 5 (Sunday).  In contrast to
this morning, there were no major shifts in the latest track model
simulations.  The new NHC forecast has been placed along the
southern part of the guidance envelope, lying closest to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind (GDM) models.  This
results in the new NHC track forecast having no appreciable
difference from the morning forecast, with no additional shifting
toward the northern Leeward Islands.  Keep in mind that NHC track
forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute
miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments in the forecast are
still possible.

It may still take Erin a little bit of time to produce more
significant deep convection while it continues to move over
marginally warm sea surface temperatures and through an atmosphere
of only modest instability and moisture.  Sea surface temperatures
and instability begin to increase after about 24 hours, which
should allow Erin to produce more organized convection.  Given that
the cyclone already has a well-defined low-level structure, this
could result in significant intensification toward the latter part
of the forecast period, especially since the global models show an
upper-level anticyclone building over the storm.  The NHC intensity
forecast is near the lower end of the guidance during the first few
days of the forecast, but then falls in line closer to the
consensus aids in 3-5 days.  In this scenario, Erin would still
become a major hurricane in about 4 or 5 days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands.  However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week.  As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 17.0N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  13/0600Z 16.6N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  13/1800Z 16.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  14/0600Z 16.6N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  14/1800Z 17.2N  49.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  15/0600Z 17.9N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  15/1800Z 18.6N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  16/1800Z 20.0N  61.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 22.2N  65.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、刘 涛  签发：张 玲  2025 年 08 月 13 日 10 时
“埃林”向偏西方向移动

时        间:   13日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经39.3度，北纬16.8度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，20米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1006百帕

参考位置:    距离亚速尔群岛西南方向约2540公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”强度变化不大

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时35公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图2 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月13日08时00分）

ygsj24

817
WTNT45 KNHC 130238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025

Deep convection has returned near Erin this evening, though it
appears to mostly be west of the center.  An ASCAT pass from a few
hours ago showed maximum winds of about the same magnitude as the
earlier data, 35-40 kt, though it did display a larger area of
tropical-storm-force winds.  With no significant change in the
satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed remains 40 kt.

The environment around Erin gradually gets more conducive for
strengthening during the next day or so, including a slow rise in
SSTs and instability.  By late Thursday, SSTs rise above 28C with
continued light or moderate shear.  This evolution should promote
slow intensification in the near-term, followed by quick
intensification in a couple of days, especially if Erin continues
to have a small core.  The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, but a little higher to follow the latest
corrected consensus guidance.  Beyond 96 hours, the global models
all suggest that shear will increase, so the wind speed is leveled
off at that point.  

Erin continues to move quickly south-of-due-west (260/17) due
to strong low- to mid-level ridging located to the north over the
central and eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance has trended a bit
southward in the near-term, so the first day or so of the forecast
has been adjusted equatorward.  In a couple of days, a weakening of
that ridge is anticipated, which should cause Erin to begin moving
west-northwestward by Friday.  There are no significant changes to
the long-range NHC forecast, and note that the 18Z GFS appeared to
be a significant outlier and was mostly disregarded in this package.
The new forecast remains along the southern part of the guidance
envelope, lying closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and
Google Deep Mind (GDM) models.  Keep in mind that NHC track
forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute
miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments in the forecast are
still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands.  However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week.  As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.7N  40.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 16.3N  42.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 16.2N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 16.6N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 17.3N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  15/1200Z 18.1N  54.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 18.9N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 20.5N  62.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 22.5N  66.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 130843
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM AST Wed Aug 13 2025

Deep convection is redeveloping intermittently over the western
portion of Erin's circulation.  However the system continues to
have a rather ragged-looking appearance, with limited convective
banding features.  There appears to be some easterly shear over the
storm at this time.  Subjective Dvorak classifications are a little
below tropical storm strength and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS are generally in the 35-40 kt range.  Based on these
estimates, the advisory intensity remains at 40 kt.

Erin has not been able to strengthen significantly for the past
couple of days, likely due to marginal SSTs, and a relatively dry
mid- to lower-tropospheric air mass.  However, it is expected that
the system's environment will gradually become more conducive for
intensification over the next 48 hours.  In particular, Erin will
be traversing progressively warmer ocean waters with likely a
little less environmental subsidence.  The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous ones and continues to call for
Erin to become a hurricane later this week.  This is also supported
by the corrected model consensus, HCCA, and Google DeepMind model
guidance.

Although the center is not easy to locate, it is estimated that the
cyclone is continuing on its generally westward track, at about
260/17 kt.  A strong low- to mid-level ridge is situated to the
north of Erin, and in a few days a slight weakness develops in the
ridge near 65W longitude.  This should cause the tropical cyclone to
begin to move west-northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed
in a couple of days.  The track guidance is in fairly good
agreement, and the official forecast is close to the HCCA solution
and is on the southern side of the model track forecast suite.  This
is also very similar to the previous NHC prediction.  Users are
reminded that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n
mi (150-215 statute miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments
to the forecast are still possible.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, the
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some
impacts on those islands.  However, the magnitude of those impacts
is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor
the progress of this storm.

2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in
portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of
the United States, and Bermuda next week.  As we approach the
climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune
time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 16.5N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  13/1800Z 16.4N  44.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  14/0600Z 16.5N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  14/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  15/0600Z 17.8N  52.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
60H  15/1800Z 18.6N  55.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  16/0600Z 19.5N  58.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  17/0600Z 21.3N  63.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 23.4N  66.8W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch