墨西哥西南一级飓风“弗洛茜”(06E.Flossie) - 沿岸西北行 - NHC:75KT

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec are currently poorly organized.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form by late this weekend while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Beven

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午至中午ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have changed little overnight and remain disorganized.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next couple of days, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

ygsj24

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271730
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have increased some this morning, but remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical
depression is expected to form by late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, off the coast
of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Papin

ygsj24

WTPN21 PHNC 272000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9N 94.3W TO 13.7N 97.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 94.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) IS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
94.5W, APPROXIMATLEY 352NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION AND TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. A
271549Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS 15-20 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER, WITH A WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
SHOWING STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
282000Z.//
NNNN

红豆棒冰冰

昨天晚间至今天凌晨ASCAT风场扫描

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions,
however, are forecast to become more conducive for development
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
slowly west-northwestward, off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Roberts

红豆棒冰冰

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 27 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have remained disorganized since yesterday.  
Environmental conditions, however, are forecast to become more
conducive for development during the next day or two, and a
tropical depression is expected to form by late this weekend or
early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward,
off the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Beven

红豆棒冰冰

今天上午ASCAT风场扫描

ygsj24

249
ABPZ20 KNHC 281134
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jun 28 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low  
pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec have become a little better organized this morning.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of
southern Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall is expected over portions of Central America and
southeastern Mexico through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch