2519号热带气旋“浣熊”(25W.Neoguri)机构发报专帖

ygsj24

台風第19号(ノグリー)
2025年09月25日22時10分発表

25日21時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
中心位置        北緯32度20分 (32.3度)
東経154度55分 (154.9度)
進行方向、速さ        西南西 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 95 km (50 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        北側 500 km (270 NM)
南側 330 km (180 NM)

26日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯31度35分 (31.6度)
東経153度55分 (153.9度)
進行方向、速さ        南西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 185 km (100 NM)

27日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯33度00分 (33.0度)
東経158度35分 (158.6度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (95 kt)
予報円の半径        155 km (85 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 290 km (155 NM)
北西側 250 km (135 NM)

28日21時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯39度10分 (39.2度)
東経167度05分 (167.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 45 km/h (23 kt)
中心気圧        974 hPa
最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 440 km (240 NM)
北西側 410 km (220 NM)

1. WTPQ32 RJTD 251200
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.32 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 154.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
   
6.   CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
   
7.   FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
   
8.   THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
   
9.   ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND
   
10.   REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
    
11.   SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    
12.   INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
    
13.   SCATTEROMETERS.
    
14. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
15.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
    
16.   SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
    
17.   A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
    
18.   CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    
19.   DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    
20.   SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
    
21. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
22.   THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO
    
23.   MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
    
24.   GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
    
25.   A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
    
26.   GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
    
27.   CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
    
28.   OUTPUTS.
    
29. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
30.   THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
    
31.   OVER THE SAME WATERS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A
    
32.   STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO
    
33.   AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
    
34.   ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
35. =

复制代码

ygsj24

No.19 NEOGURI KMA | Issued at(KST) : Thu, 25 Sep 2025, 22:30

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Thu, 25 Sep 2025, 12:00 Analysis	Normal	2	29	104	980	32.4	154.8	WSW	29	290 [SW 190]	80 [SW 60]	-
Fri, 26 Sep 2025, 00:00 Forecast	Normal	2	29	104	980	32.1	153.8	WSW	9	290 [SW 190]	80 [SW 60]	50
Fri, 26 Sep 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Normal	2	29	104	980	31.8	154.0	SSE	4	290 [SW 190]	80 [SW 60]	90
Sat, 27 Sep 2025, 00:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	32.0	155.4	ENE	11	300 [SW 200]	90 [SW 70]	110
Sat, 27 Sep 2025, 12:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	33.2	158.5	ENE	27	300 [SW 200]	90 [SW 70]	130
Sun, 28 Sep 2025, 12:00 Forecast	-	L	29	104	980	38.7	166.0	NE	38			190

ygsj24

WTPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR 029   
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 25W
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 32.4N 154.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 154.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 32.0N 153.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 31.8N 154.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 32.1N 155.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 33.3N 158.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 39.8N 168.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 154.6E. 25SEP25. TROPICAL STORM 25W
(NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 776 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 251200Z IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z,
260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 24W (RAGASA) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN32 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 26W (BUALOI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

ygsj24

輕度颱風浣熊
編號第 19 號
國際命名 NEOGURI

現況
2025年09月25日20時
中心位置在北緯 32.4 度，東經 155.0 度
過去移動方向 西南
過去移動時速 19公里
中心氣壓 982百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風平均暴風半徑 180 公里
　西北側 200 公里 東北側 200 公里
　西南側 160 公里 東南側 160 公里
十級風平均暴風半徑 - 公里

預測
預測 6 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 時速 16 公里
預測 09月26日02時
中心位置在北緯 32.0 度，東經 154.1 度
中心氣壓985百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 25 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 33 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
70%機率半徑 25 公里

預測 6-12 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 緩慢移動
預測 09月26日08時
中心位置在北緯 31.9 度，東經 153.9 度
中心氣壓985百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 25 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 33 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
70%機率半徑 50 公里

預測 12-18 小時平均移向移速為
西南西 緩慢移動
預測 09月26日14時
中心位置在北緯 31.8 度，東經 153.6 度
中心氣壓982百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
70%機率半徑 70 公里

預測 18-24 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 8 公里
預測 09月26日20時
中心位置在北緯 31.8 度，東經 154.1 度
中心氣壓980百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 28 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 35 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 180 公里
70%機率半徑 90 公里

預測 24-36 小時平均移向移速為
東 時速 16 公里
預測 09月27日08時
中心位置在北緯 32.0 度，東經 156.1 度
中心氣壓975百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 30 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 38 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 120 公里

預測 36-48 小時平均移向移速為
東北東 時速 23 公里
預測 09月27日20時
中心位置在北緯 32.9 度，東經 158.8 度
中心氣壓975百帕
近中心最大風速每秒 30 公尺
瞬間最大陣風每秒 38 公尺
七級風暴風半徑 200 公里
十級風暴風半徑 70 公里
70%機率半徑 170 公里

預測 48-72 小時平均移向移速為
東北 時速 36 公里
預測 09月28日20時
中心位置在北緯 38.1 度，東經 165.9 度
中心氣壓980百帕
70%機率半徑 220 公里
預測 72 小時內變性為溫帶氣旋

yhh

WDPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (NEOGURI) WARNING NR
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 32.4N 154.9E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 776 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND ASSOCIATED PERSISTENT CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE
STORM HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO UPWELLING
EFFECTS AND DIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY
LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY THE UPWELLING
AND DRY AIR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 251128Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES LISTED BELOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 250731Z RCM-
2 SAR WINDSPEED IMAGE REVEALED A SWATH OF 65-70 KTS IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ANALYZED TO BE TOO LOW DUE
TO THE WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) OF EQUAL STRENGTH POSITIONED TO THE
EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 251140Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 41 KTS AT 251140Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 251210Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: UPWELLING AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 25W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN BECOMING
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM TAU 24 TO TAU 36. WHILE THE STORM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY, ERRATIC MOTION NOT REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST MAY
OCCUR. AFTER TAU 36, 25W IS EXPECTED TO LOOP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AND
CONTINUE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK MOTION UNTIL IT BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL NEAR TAU 72. BEGINNING AROUND TAU 48, 25W WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL JET AND WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT THAT
TIME. REGARDING INTENSITY, 25W IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BETWEEN
TAUS 12-24 TO 55 KTS. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 60-70 KTS
AS 25W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD DURING ETT AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES
MORE ROBUST IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH THE JET.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW 25W
LOOPING OVER ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, THE GUIDANCE BEGINS
TO DEVIATE. AT TAU 72, THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 320
NM AS JGSM AND GFS FORECAST FASTER TRACK SPEEDS THAN ECMWF AND UKMET,
WHICH LAG BEHIND. THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INJECTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY; HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS STILL PLACED WITH
OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. RELIABLE INTENSITY IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SLIGHT WEAKENING BETWEEN TAUS 12-24, BEFORE REINTENSIFYING WHILE
UNDERGOING ETT BETWEEN TAUS 48-72; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE PEAK INTENSITY BEFORE 25W BECOMES FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL. AS A RESULT, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

yhh

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 251500
CCAA 25150 99398 11165
NEOGURI 19321 11541 12114 235// 92414
BUALOI 20118 11261 12644 245// 92919
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 251500
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS NEOGURI 2519 (2519) INITIAL TIME 251500 UTC
00HR 32.1N 154.5E 982HPA 28M/S
30KTS WINDS 250KM NORTHEAST
200KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
50KTS WINDS 80KM NORTHEAST
60KM SOUTHEAST
60KM SOUTHWEST
80KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WSW 9KM/H
P+12HR 31.8N 153.5E 985HPA 25M/S
P+24HR 31.6N 154.1E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 32.3N 156.3E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 33.9N 159.5E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 37.4N 163.9E 972HPA 33M/S=
NNNN

yhh

台風第19号(ノグリー)
2025年09月26日01時10分発表

26日00時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
中心位置        北緯32度10分 (32.2度)
東経154度25分 (154.4度)
進行方向、速さ        西南西 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 95 km (50 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        北側 500 km (270 NM)
南側 330 km (180 NM)

27日00時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本の東
予報円の中心        北緯31度40分 (31.7度)
東経153度40分 (153.7度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 185 km (100 NM)

27日21時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯33度00分 (33.0度)
東経158度35分 (158.6度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 20 km/h (11 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (95 kt)
予報円の半径        155 km (85 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 290 km (155 NM)
北西側 250 km (135 NM)

28日21時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯39度10分 (39.2度)
東経167度05分 (167.1度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 45 km/h (23 kt)
中心気圧        974 hPa
最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 440 km (240 NM)
北西側 410 km (220 NM)

ygsj24

ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 251800
CCAA 25180 99398 11165
NEOGURI 19319 11540 12104 235// 92409
BUALOI 20121 11249 12644 2//// 92919
NNNN

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 251800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STS NEOGURI 2519 (2519) INITIAL TIME 251800 UTC
00HR 31.9N 154.0E 985HPA 25M/S
30KTS WINDS 250KM NORTHEAST
250KM SOUTHEAST
300KM SOUTHWEST
300KM NORTHWEST
MOVE WSW 6KM/H
P+12HR 31.7N 153.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+24HR 31.7N 154.4E 985HPA 25M/S
P+36HR 32.6N 157.0E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 34.4N 160.4E 980HPA 30M/S
P+60HR 38.4N 165.1E 970HPA 35M/S=
NNNN

ygsj24

台風第19号(ノグリー)
2025年09月26日04時10分発表

26日03時の実況
種別        台風
大きさ        -
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
中心位置        北緯32度05分 (32.1度)
東経154度00分 (154.0度)
進行方向、速さ        西 15 km/h (8 kt)
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
25m/s以上の暴風域        全域 75 km (40 NM)
15m/s以上の強風域        北西側 500 km (270 NM)
南東側 330 km (180 NM)

27日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        -
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯31度50分 (31.8度)
東経154度50分 (154.8度)
進行方向、速さ        ほとんど停滞
中心気圧        985 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        30 m/s (55 kt)
最大瞬間風速        40 m/s (80 kt)
予報円の半径        95 km (50 NM)
暴風警戒域        全域 150 km (80 NM)

28日03時の予報
種別        台風
強さ        強い
存在地域        日本のはるか東
予報円の中心        北緯33度50分 (33.8度)
東経160度35分 (160.6度)
進行方向、速さ        東北東 25 km/h (13 kt)
中心気圧        975 hPa
中心付近の最大風速        35 m/s (65 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (95 kt)
予報円の半径        155 km (85 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 320 km (175 NM)
北西側 270 km (145 NM)

29日03時の予報
種別        温帯低気圧
強さ        -
存在地域        アリューシャンの南
予報円の中心        北緯41度35分 (41.6度)
東経170度25分 (170.4度)
進行方向、速さ        北東 50 km/h (27 kt)
中心気圧        974 hPa
最大風速        35 m/s (70 kt)
最大瞬間風速        50 m/s (100 kt)
予報円の半径        300 km (160 NM)
暴風警戒域        南東側 480 km (260 NM)
北西側 410 km (220 NM)

1. WTPQ32 RJTD 251800
   
2. RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
   
3. REASONING NO.33 FOR STS 2519 NEOGURI (2519)
   
4. 1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   
5.   STS NEOGURI IS LOCATED AT 32.1N, 154.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
   
6.   CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
   
7.   FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
   
8.   THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
   
9.   DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
   
10.   CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
    
11.   HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    
12.   INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    
13. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    
14.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
    
15.   BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    
16.   SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
    
17.   IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
    
18.   CSC.
    
19. 3.TRACK FORECAST
    
20.   THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
    
21.   THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE
    
22.   TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
    
23.   NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
    
24.   THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
    
25. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    
26.   THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
    
27.   INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
    
28.   WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
    
29.   TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
    
30.   CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
    
31.   GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
    
32. =

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ygsj24

No.19 NEOGURI KMA | Issued at(KST) : Fri, 26 Sep 2025, 04:30

Date(UTC)	Intensity		Maximum Sustained Wind(m/s)		Central Pressure (hPa)	Position		Moving Direction	Moving Speed(km/h)	Radius of 15 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 25 m/s(km) [Exceptional radius]	Radius of 70% probability(km)
			m/s	km/h		Lat (N)	Lon (E)
Thu, 25 Sep 2025, 18:00 Analysis	Normal	2	29	104	980	32.0	153.8	WSW	15	290 [SW 190]	80 [SW 60]	-
Fri, 26 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	Normal	2	29	104	980	31.9	153.8	SSW	1	290 [SW 190]	80 [SW 60]	50
Fri, 26 Sep 2025, 18:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	31.8	154.6	ESE	6	300 [SW 200]	90 [SW 70]	90
Sat, 27 Sep 2025, 06:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	32.5	156.8	ENE	19	300 [SW 200]	90 [SW 70]	110
Sat, 27 Sep 2025, 18:00 Forecast	Normal	2	32	115	975	34.2	160.3	ENE	31	300 [SW 200]	90 [SW 70]	130
Sun, 28 Sep 2025, 18:00 Forecast	-	L	27	97	985	40.9	169.1	NE	45			190