中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend off the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
some gradual development of this system early next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Gibbs

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1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands has
changed little over the past several hours.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it
moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show
some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or
so while the system moves west-southwestward at around 15 mph, and
a short-lived tropical depression could form.  In a couple of
days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of
the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development
while the system moves slowly eastward over the next couple of days
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle portions of next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

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3. Central Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has moved into a drier environment and is currently producing
occasional showers. Upper-level winds are only marginally conducive
for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Gibbs

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3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores
has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it
drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the coast
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the early or middle portions of next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms several hundred miles south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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1. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is likely to form in a few days well to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Subsequent slow development is possible late this week into the
weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.