中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized shower activity off the coast of North
Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic States are associated with a
non-tropical low pressure system. This system is expected to
merge with a front and move over cool waters this weekend, and
tropical or subtropical development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



2. Central Atlantic (AL96):
Shower activity has increased a little in association with a
tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. Development of
this system appears unlikely during the next day or two due to
surrounding dry air, but environmental conditions are forecast to
become more conducive in a few days. A tropical depression could
form during the early or middle part of next week while the system
moves northwestward to northward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible next week while the system
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

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3. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
to move northward over cooler waters, ending its changes for further
tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the
next day or two as the low drifts westward near the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf Stream.  By the middle of this week, the system
is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances
for further tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



2. Central Atlantic:
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level disturbance, producing
scattered disorganized showers.  Development of this system is not
expected as it drifts generally northward over the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

3. Northeastern Gulf:
A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  While
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
on Tuesday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana over the next day or so.  For
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending across eastern
Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua and adjacent marine areas.  This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the Yucatan
Peninsula on Wednesday with no significant increase in
organization.  Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while
the system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some limited
tropical or subtropical development is possible through early
Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the
Gulf Stream.  The system is expected to move northward over cooler
waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Blake

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands.

1. Western Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure located offshore the coast of North
Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slight development is possible over the weekend while the low drifts
slowly toward the southeast over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream,
remaining offshore. By Monday, environmental conditions are expected
to become unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located about 100 miles north of the Virgin Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
The area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina has not become any better organized over the
past 24 hours, with limited disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity displaced well to the east of the center. Some slight
development of this system is still possible over the next day or so
while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. By
Monday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a
westward moving tropical wave.  Some subsequent development could
occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located less than 200 miles east-northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands.

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Shower activity remains limited in association with an elongated
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the coast of
North Carolina.  Upper-level winds are unfavorable, and development
is no longer expected.  The low should continue to weaken over the
next 24 hours while drifting east-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of
this system is possible during the latter half of this week, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or next weekend while
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
approaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea or southwestern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located near the Southeast Bahamas.

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week.
This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20
mph across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity
of the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the coast of Africa is producing a
persistent cluster of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible over the next day or
two as it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Thursday, this system
should reach a less favorable environment, which should reduce its
chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Hagen

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a couple hundred miles to the northeast of the
Southeast Bahamas.

1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of
the week or weekend. This system should move westward to
west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally
favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as
the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this
week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment,
limiting its development chances after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



Forecaster Papin

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1. Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form late this
week or over the weekend while it moves near or the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.