中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Western Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles
east of the North Carolina coast.  The low is producing gale-force
winds, and it appears that the system is becoming separated from
the nearby frontal zone to its north and west.  If the shower
and thunderstorm activity persists, the low would continue to
acquire tropical characteristics, with a tropical storm likely to
form later tonight or on Monday while moving east-northeastward at
10 to 15 mph over the western Atlantic, away from the coast of North
Carolina.  For additional information, including gale warnings,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday.  Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is
possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while
it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



3. Off the Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred
miles off the coast of the southeastern United States.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible during the middle or
latter part of the week as the system drifts to the west or
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg

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2. South of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure just offshore of Central America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the system moves
generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located well southwest of the Baja California
Peninsula.  Henriette is expected to move into the Central Pacific
basin Thursday night or Friday.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure just offshore of the coast of Central
America is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Public advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.


Forecaster Jelsema

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing minimal shower activity.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of
this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



2. Off the Southeastern United States:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two
several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United
States.  Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the middle or latter portion of this week as the system moves slowly
westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.


Forecaster Pasch

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off
the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an
area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this
week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but
turns more northward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily
to the southwest of the wave axis.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over
the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Papin

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough located several hundred miles off the coast of
the southeastern United States is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  An area of low pressure is expected to develop from
this system over the next day or so, and environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for additional development.  A tropical
depression could form by the latter portion of this week or this
weekend as the low starts moving slowly westward, but turns more
northward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally
west-northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Pasch

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1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of the southeastern United States is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity.  Some slow tropical or subtropical
development is possible over the weekend and early next week while
the system moves northward to northeastward, remaining well off the
east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

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1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or
so a few hundred miles offshore of North Carolina.  Some tropical or
subtropical development is possible this weekend while the system
moves northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  By
early next week, the low is expected to reach colder water and an
area of strong upper-level winds, ending its chances for tropical or
subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or
so a few hundred miles offshore of North Carolina.  Some tropical or
subtropical development is possible this weekend while the system
moves northeastward over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  By
early next week, the low is expected to reach colder water and an
area of strong upper-level winds, ending its chances for tropical or
subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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1. Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off
the coast of North Carolina is producing a few disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Development of this system, if any, is expected
to be slow to occur over the next day or two while it moves
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph.  The low is likely to merge with a
front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or
subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.