百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

ygsj24

596
WTNT35 KNHC 201737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE SOON IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS..
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 73.6 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today through
early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so,
and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight.  Weakening
is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a
hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
late today.  Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely
Thursday through early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into
Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 202037
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features.  Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation.  An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi.  The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt.  The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory.  Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast.  After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the  mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic.  The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely  prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward.  The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an usually large hurricane.  For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 31.2N  73.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  21/0600Z 33.2N  72.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  21/1800Z 35.5N  70.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  22/0600Z 37.5N  67.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  22/1800Z 39.2N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  23/0600Z 41.0N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  23/1800Z 43.1N  50.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  24/1800Z 49.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1800Z 54.0N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

---

000
WTNT45 KNHC 202137 CCA
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  38...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Corrected usually to unusually in fourth paragraph

Erin continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, with a
fairly symmetric cloud pattern and numerous convective banding
features.  Upper-level outflow remains well-defined over most parts
of the circulation.  An AMSR microwave image from just before 18Z
showed a concentric eyewall structure with an outer ring of
convection at a radius of 70-80 n mi from the center and an inner
eyewall at a radius of about 20 n mi.  The current intensity
estimate is held at 95 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak
classifications from TAB and SAB and objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is moving northward with a forward speed of
around 12 kt.  The steering scenario and track forecast
reasoning have not changed from the previous advisory.  Erin
should move around the western and northwestern periphery of
a mid-level subtropical anticyclone over the next day or so,
moving between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast.  After that, the
system should accelerate northeastward and east-northeastward while
embedded within the  mid-latitude westerlies over the north
Atlantic.  The official forecast is close to the previous NHC
prediction and is in good agreement with the NOAA corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Although Erin is over warm waters with ample mid- to low-level
moisture, The concentric convective ring structure of the system
will likely  prevent significant strengthening and the official
intensity forecast now only shows a slight-short term increase in
intensity, similar to the DSHIPS and LGEM guidance. Beginning in
about 36 hours, the SHIPS model diagnoses a large increase in
vertical wind shear so a weakening trend is anticipated from that
time onward.  The predicted structure of the cyclone in the global
models indicates that extratropical transition should be underway
in 3-4 days, while Erin passes over much cooler waters.

Erin is an unusually large hurricane.  For hurricanes north of 30N
latitude, its tropical-storm-force wind radii are in the 75th
percentile of the Atlantic basin record.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today and lasting
through Thursday.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making
some roads impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts Thursday through early Friday.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 31.2N  73.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  21/0600Z 33.2N  72.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  21/1800Z 35.5N  70.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  22/0600Z 37.5N  67.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  22/1800Z 39.2N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  23/0600Z 41.0N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  23/1800Z 43.1N  50.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  24/1800Z 49.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1800Z 54.0N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202351
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE ERIN BRUSHING THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 73.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 73.2 West. Erin is moving toward
the north near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the
northeast and east-northeast by Thursday and Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Erin will move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda tonight and early
Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next
day or so, and Erin could become a major hurricane again tonight.
Weakening is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to
remain a hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). During the past few
hours, NOAA buoy 41002, located west of the center, has reported
sustained winds of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph   
(115 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks and the Virginia coastline beginning
in the next several hours.  Elsewhere along the mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast, wind gusts to tropical storm force are
likely Thursday through early Friday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda Thursday and Friday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin may bring up to 1 inch of rainfall
to the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon into Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven