百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

菜园子

FNV3 06Z

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 191737
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...LARGE HURRICANE ERIN NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and for the Southeast
Bahamas, and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the
Central Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light, Virginia

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests in Bermuda, the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 72.5 West.  Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas today and tonight, and then move over the
western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas.  Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches,
with storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead
to flash and urban flooding.  Heavy rainfall is possible on the
Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with
potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 192039
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

After becoming somewhat disrupted earlier today, Erin's cloud
pattern has become better organized with increasing coverage and
intensity of central convection.  The upper-tropospheric outflow is
becoming better defined over the northern portion of the
circulation, indicating some decrease in vertical wind shear.  The
advisory intensity remains at 90 kt which is about the maximum
of the various satellite-based subjective and objective estimates.  
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for a few
hours from now to provide a good estimate of Erin's intensity.

Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite
images, Erin turned to a north-northwestward heading a few hours
ago and the initial motion estimate is now around 330/9 kt.  The
system is situated in a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and
should turn northward along the western side of a mid-level high
centered southeast of Bermuda Wednesday.  Erin should turn toward
the northeast as it rounds the northwestern side of the high, and
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward in the southern
part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic.  
Little changes were made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory, and the official forecast remains close to the model
consensus.

Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system
will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days,
some re-strengthening could occur.  The future intensity is
dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes
re-established.  The official forecast conservatively shows a
slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the
LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that.  Later
in the forecast period, Erin should gradually weaken over the
cooler waters of the north Atlantic and lose its tropical
characteristics in 4-5 days.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.
   
4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 26.6N  72.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 28.1N  73.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 30.3N  73.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  21/0600Z 32.6N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 34.9N  71.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  22/0600Z 36.8N  68.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 38.4N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  23/1800Z 41.0N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 43.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 192357
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERIN...
...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST
BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 72.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast and the southern
New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward
the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by
a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to
the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western
Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
couple of days.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos
and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening.   Heavy rainfall is
possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into
Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light
beginning Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 08 月 20 日 10 时
“埃林”向北偏西方向移动

时        间:   20日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经72.7度，北纬27.3度

强度等级:    二级飓风

最大风力:    14级，45米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级

中心气压:    959百帕

参考位置:    距离百慕大西南方向约940公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”强度由17级减弱为14级

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，强度维持。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月20日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin has become a little better organized during the past several
hours. Conventional satellite imagery shows persistent strong
convection near and to the north of the center, while microwave
overpasses and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the eyewall is trying to re-form.  However,
these changes have not yet resulted in a tighter inner core wind
field, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt were
measured about 100 n mi from the center.  Based on this, the
flight-level winds closer to the center, and satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous
85 kt.

The initial motion is now 340/10.  The hurricane remains situated in
a weakness or break in the subtropical ridge, and it is expected to
turn northward along the western side of the ridge on Wednesday.  
After that, Erin should turn northeastward with some acceleration
as it moves into the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies
over the north Atlantic.  There are no significant changes to the
forecast track through 72 h, and this part of the track lies near
the center of the tightly-packed track guidance.  After 72 h, the
there is more spread, and the consensus models have shifted a
little northward. In response, this portion of the track has been
shifted to the north.

For the next 36 h, Erin will be in an environment of light to
moderate vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence.  Much of
the intensity guidance suggests the hurricane should strengthen
during this time, if the spread-out wind field can become more
concentrated near the re-formed eyewall. On the basis of this
happening, the new intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening
during the first 36 h. However, an alternative scenario is that the
central pressure falls considerably without a lot of increase in
the winds as the hurricane grows larger.  After 36 h, increasing
shear and the start of extratropical transition should cause
weakening, and Erin is now forecast to become an extratropical low
by 96 h.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
southeastern coast of Virginia, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect, on Thursday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 27.7N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 29.3N  73.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 31.6N  73.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 33.8N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  22/0000Z 35.9N  69.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  22/1200Z 37.7N  66.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  23/0000Z 39.3N  62.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  24/0000Z 42.5N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/0000Z 44.8N  42.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

9916-Bart

实测气压降至960-

菜园子

1

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 200544
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

...SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 73.2W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including
Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast, the southern New
England coast, and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Erin.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 73.2 West.  Erin is moving
toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward
the north is expected today, followed by a northeastward motion on
Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin will move over
the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda today
through early Friday, and then pass south of Atlantic Canada Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is expected through Thursday night.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

Dropsonde data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight
indicate that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 954 mb
(28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Bahamas this
morning.  Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North
Carolina tonight into Thursday, with the potential for 1 to 2
inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late today or tonight.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of
Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda beginning
Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

000
WTNT45 KNHC 200852
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The last center fix of an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission found that Erin's central pressure had dropped by a
few millibars to 954 mb.  Although satellite intensity estimates
have increased slightly over the past 6 hours, there is no firm
evidence to indicate that the pressure drop has translated into
stronger maximum winds, which are being held at 85 kt.  A
recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the hurricane has
an small inner eyewall extending about 15 n mi from the center with
a pronounced outer ring of convection extending 70-90 n mi from the
center.  Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate
Erin in a few hours and should be able to help ascertain if the
winds have increased.

Erin is moving north-northwestward, or 345/11 kt, but it is likely
to turn northward very soon.  The track guidance is in very good
agreement during Erin's expected recurvature over the western
Atlantic between the east coast of the U.S. and Bermuda, and no
significant changes were made to the first 24-36 hours of the
forecast.  After 36 hours, there has been a notable increase in
forward speed among the models when Erin becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly.  These changes are most evident at days 4 and 5, with
the new day 5 position about 600 n mi northeast of the previous day
5 forecast point.

Warm waters, relatively light shear, and upper-level divergence
could support some intensification over the next 36 hours or so.  
However, it is unclear if Erin's broad structure will support much
increase of the maximum winds, despite the global models showing the
central pressure falling further into the 940s mb.  The NHC
intensity forecast is closest to the HCCA consensus aid, showing
some slight strengthening through Thursday.  A substantial increase
in shear is likely to induce weakening by 48 hours, and Erin is
expected to become post-tropical by day 4.  

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today or tonight.
The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Thursday
along the southeastern coast of Virginia.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and
Friday.

4. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England coasts, and Atlantic Canada, should also monitor the  
progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday through
Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 28.9N  73.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 30.6N  73.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  21/0600Z 33.0N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  21/1800Z 35.4N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  22/0600Z 37.4N  67.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
60H  22/1800Z 39.3N  63.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  23/0600Z 41.0N  57.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  24/0600Z 45.8N  43.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/0600Z 51.1N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg