西太／北印各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年1-6月）

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 18Z继续预报棉兰老岛东南近海有系统短暂发展；一周后南海有热带系统发展成台并北上，反穿巴士海峡，影响琉球群岛

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 18Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 00Z预报南海热带系统将在一周后逐渐发展成台，随后反穿巴士海峡，影响日本

红豆棒冰冰

GEFS 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 00Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

IMD今天下午报文继续表示5月21日阿拉伯海中东部可能形成高空气旋环流，5月22日可能形成低压区，此后可能进一步加强

Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat persisted
over the same region at 1.5 km above mean sea level at 0300 UTC of today, the 19th May, 2025.
An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast
around 21st May. Under its influence, a Low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region
around 22nd May. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwards and intensify further.
Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense convection lay over eastcentral &
southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep island area, Maldives and Comorin area.

Enceladus

GFS 1906Z Main-run(UNIVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 40KT

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z大幅调弱南海台风

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

Enceladus

GFS 1912Z Main-run(UNIVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 35KT

---

GFS 1912Z Main-run(UNIVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +360Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 45KT