百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

菜园子

FNV3少有的断更，目前只有12Z时次的，实况还是偏西了不少

ygsj24

051
WTNT35 KNHC 190534
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN SLOWING DOWN WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 71.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and other parts
of the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the
progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 71.8 West.  Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn to the north is
forecast later today or tonight.  On the forecast track, the core of
Erin is expected to move away from the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands this morning and move east of the remainder
of the Bahamas later today.  The hurricane is then expected to move
between Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the
middle of the week.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to an estimated 120 mph
(195 km/h) with higher gusts.  Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next couple of days.  However, Erin is likely to
remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).  A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently
reported at Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 953 mb
(28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erin will produce localized areas of heavy rainfall across
portions of the southeastern Bahamas into Wednesday.  Additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with storm total amounts to 8 inches, is
possible, which could lead to flash flooding and urban flood
concerns.  Portions of Hispaniola, the central Bahamas, and the
Turks and Caicos should receive an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
as well.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

ygsj24

852
WTNT45 KNHC 190856
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Moderate to strong northwesterly shear has caused Erin's structure
to become more asymmetric, with dry air infiltrating into the
northwestern part of the circulation, and a long trailing convective
band still draped to the south over the Turks and Caicos Islands.  
An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission made a final
pass through the center of Erin around 1230 am and measured
flight-level winds of 97 kt, with a central pressure up to 953 mb.  
Combining this information with the latest satellite estimates,
Erin's intensity is set at 100 kt, which could be a bit generous.

Erin has been moving slowly northwestward since yesterday, with an
initial motion estimated to be 325/6 kt.  There is not much change
to the track forecast reasoning, with the hurricane still expected
to recurve over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and
Bermuda over the next 3-4 days.  The main highlight of the new
forecast is that much of the track guidance, including the consensus
aids, have shifted slightly west of the previous NHC prediction
during the first 2-3 days.  The new NHC forecast is very close to
the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids during the first 48 hours, and then
closer to the TVCA aid beyond 48 hours.  It should be noted that
there is still some space for additional adjustments to the track
forecast, particularly beyond 48 hours with the HCCA aid lying along
the northwestern edge of the guidance envelope.

There are mixed signals on Erin's future intensity.  On one hand,
more favorable environmental shear and upper-level divergence in
24-36 hours should support some re-intensification.  On the other
hand, Erin's slow motion and large size could lead to some upwelling
of cooler water, and the hurricane's broad structure could limit
significant strengthening.  The official forecast only shows
fluctuations in intensity for the next 3 days, although it's
becoming more likely that Erin could just weaken very gradually
during that time.  Erin is forecast to maintain hurricane strength
for the next 5 days, but it is likely to begin interacting with a
frontal boundary by Friday and become extratropical by late
Saturday.

The more important part of the forecast is that model guidance has
continued to show Erin growing in size, and the wind radii have been
made larger in the new NHC forecast.  This new forecast now brings
tropical-storm-force winds very close to the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England coast later this week.  Erin's expanding wind
field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western
Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed
probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are
likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is
because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed
probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday
night where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.  
Interests in along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.
  
3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 24.8N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  19/1800Z 26.1N  72.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  20/0600Z 28.1N  73.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  20/1800Z 30.3N  74.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  21/0600Z 32.6N  73.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  21/1800Z 34.6N  71.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  22/0600Z 36.5N  68.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  23/0600Z 39.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 42.0N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：董议文、曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 08 月 19 日 18 时
“埃林”向西北方向移动

时        间:   19日14时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经71.8度，北纬24.5度

强度等级:    三级飓风

最大风力:    16级，51米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    955百帕

参考位置:    距离美国佛罗里达州迈阿密东方向约870公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”强度略有减弱

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时10-15公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度维持。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月19日14时00分）

9916-Bart

ygsj24 发表于 2025-8-19 16:57
852
WTNT45 KNHC 190856
TCDAT5

居然还能有三巅

恒信金仁

菜园子 发表于 2025-8-19 11:44
FNV3少有的断更，目前只有12Z时次的，实况还是偏西了不少

有概率登陆吗

ygsj24

396
WTNT35 KNHC 191156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

...ERIN EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LARGER WHILE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK...
...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 72.2W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, Bermuda, and the U.S
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast should monitor the
progress of Erin.  Additional tropical storm watches and warnings
may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 72.2 West.  Erin is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a
northeastward motion on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas today and
tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S.
east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few
days.

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of the Turks and Caicos today and through
tonight for the Bahamas.  Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with
storm total amounts to 8 inches, are possible, which could lead to
flash and urban flooding.  Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer
Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with potential
for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected for a few more hours
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Enceladus

什么杨柳套餐

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 191457
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Erin's cloud pattern continues to be disrupted by vertical wind
shear, with the low-level center situated near the northwestern edge
of the main area of deep convection.  There are still well-defined
convective banding features over the eastern semicircle of the
system.  Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the central pressure has risen compared to earlier
this morning.  The advisory intensity is set to 90 kt, comparable to
a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB.  However, wind
observations from the Hurricane Hunters suggest that this intensity
estimate may be on the high side.

The hurricane is moving a little faster to the northwest with an
initial motion estimate of 325/8 kt.  Erin is expected to turn
northward around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone
centered southeast of Bermuda.  Later in the period, the system
should turn to the northeast with some increase in forward speed as
it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies.  There are no
significant adjustments to the previous NHC forecast track and the
official forecast lies very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.  

Predicting Erin's intensity is somewhat problematic.  Given the
current disorganization of the cloud pattern, one would be reluctant
to call for restrengthening.  However,the dynamical guidance shows
increasingly anticyclonic upper-level flow over the system and the
SHIPS model diagnoses a significant decrease in vertical wind shear.
Therefore, the official forecast shows a bit of restrengthening in
the next 36 hours.  This is somewhat above the model consensus but
below the latest statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The global models continue to show an increase in the size of the
hurricane, with the tropical-storm-force wind radii crossing the
North Carolina Outer Banks within the next couple of days.  
Accordingly, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings have been
issued for this area.

It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely
underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is because
the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average
compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability
product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or
Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
now in effect.  The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves,
leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads
impassible.   
  
3. Heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Erin will continue today
for the Turks and Caicos and through tonight for the Bahamas. Flash
and urban flooding are possible.

4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
coasts and on Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as
strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 25.6N  72.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 27.0N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  20/1200Z 29.1N  73.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  21/0000Z 31.4N  73.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
48H  21/1200Z 33.7N  72.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
60H  22/0000Z 35.6N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  22/1200Z 37.3N  66.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  23/1200Z 40.3N  58.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 42.8N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

菜园子

恒信金仁 发表于 2025-8-19 20:20
有概率登陆吗

这个几乎没可能了