西太／北印各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年1-6月）

Enceladus

GFS 1806Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 50KT

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 06Z预报一周后南海热带系统将逐渐发展成台，随后北上趋向粤西沿海

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IMD今天下午报文表示5月21日阿拉伯海中东部可能形成高空气旋环流，5月22日可能形成低压区，此后可能进一步加强

An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over northeast Arabian Sea off south Gujarat 1.5 km above
mean sea level at 0300 UTC of today, the 18th May, 2025.
An upper air cyclonic circulation is likely to form over eastcentral Arabian Sea off Karnataka coast
around 21st May. Under its influence, a Low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region
around 22nd May. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwards and intensify further.
Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over
eastcentral adjoining southeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala coasts.
Scattered low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lay over
southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep island area & Comorin area.

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF及GFS 06Z系集

Enceladus

GFS 1812Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 75KT

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GFS 1812Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +336Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 80KT

红豆棒冰冰

GFS 12Z预报棉兰老岛东南近海有系统短暂发展；一周后南海有热带系统发展成台并北上，大致趋向粤东

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GEFS 12Z系集

红豆棒冰冰

ECMWF 12Z系集继续对阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾有明显反应

Enceladus

GFS 1818Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 110KT

Enceladus

GFS 1900Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +240Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 70KT

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GFS 1900Z Main-run(UNINVESTED SYSTEM 01)
Range: +288Hrs
Step: 24Hrs
Maximun Expected Intensity: 100KT