百慕大西南二级飓风“埃林”(05L.Erin) - 西行爆发，成为今年北半球首个五级热带气旋 - NHC MAX:140KT

莎莎

加勒比海群島沿海經過




置換後 飛機實測強度有重新增強

935hPa



美國旁邊北上

9916-Bart

接下来就是风切的主场了（悲伤）

pocketbox

WTNT45 KNHC 181451
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin continues to have an impressive cloud pattern on satellite
imagery with the eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops and
numerous convective banding features.  A considerable amount of
lightning activity is occurring over the eastern portion of the
circulation.  Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate some strengthening this morning, with the
central pressure dropping to around 935 mb and peak 700-mb flight
level winds supporting an intensity close to 120 kt.  Rain bands
over Erin's southwest quadrant will continue to cause
tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the southeastern
Bahamas today.

Based on a number of recent aircraft center fixes, Erin's forward
speed has slowed to around 8 or 9 kt.  Although there hasn't
been much motion this morning, the hurricane has again wobbled
to the west-northwest.  Nonetheless, the steering pattern and track
guidance remains about the same as it has been over the past day.  
Water vapor imagery shows a trough developing near U.S.
mid-Atlantic coastline, and creating a weakness in the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge.  During the next few days, Erin is
expected to turn northward into this weakness, and move between
Bermuda and the U.S. east coast in about 72 hours.  The official
track forecast is very close to the previous NHC prediction and
close to the dynamical model consensus.  Later in the forecast
period, an approaching trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

Given Erin's impressive deep convection and strong upper-level
outflow, it is expected to strengthen some more by later today.  
The SHIPS guidance diagnoses some northerly shear over the
system, which could counteract the other conducive factors in the
environment.  The official intensity forecast is near or a little
above the simple and corrected model guidance.  The system is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the middle of this
week.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is
considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to
derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected through today over portions
of Hispaniola and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the
Bahamas eastward from San Salvador Island. Flash and urban flooding
are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas today.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

4. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Bermuda
should monitor the progress of Erin.  Tropical storm conditions
and coastal flooding are possible in the North Carolina Outer Banks
beginning late Wednesday and a Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watch
may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 23.1N  70.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  19/0000Z 24.2N  71.6W  125 KT 145 MPH
24H  19/1200Z 25.7N  72.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  20/0000Z 27.4N  73.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  20/1200Z 29.5N  73.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
60H  21/0000Z 31.7N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  21/1200Z 33.9N  71.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  22/1200Z 37.7N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 42.4N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181749
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME EVEN LARGER OVER THE COMING DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 71.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the North Carolina Outer
Banks, and Bermuda should monitor the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 71.1 West. Erin is moving toward
the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn to the northwest
is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on  
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to
pass to the east of the southeastern Bahamas today and move between
Bermuda and the east coast of the United States by the middle of
the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some additional strengthening is possible
today.  Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane
through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola through today and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas east from San
Salvador Island.  Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with
locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected today across the Turks
and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas late
today through Tuesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult products
from your local weather forecast office for more information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast
Bahamas.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ygsj24

231
WTNT45 KNHC 182045
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin's cloud pattern has become somewhat less organized than
earlier today, likely as a result of some dry air intrusion over
the northwestern portion of the circulation and increased northerly
shear.  An AMSR microwave image from the GCOM satellite showed the
dry air intrusion which is consistent with the presence of arc
clouds emanating northwestward from the system.  The northerly
shear has also begun to restrict the outflow to the north of Erin.  
The intensity is held at 120 kt for now, pending observations from
another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few hours.  This
intensity estimate is also consistent with a blend of objective
values from UW-CIMSS.

After a west-northwestward wobble earlier today, the hurricane has
resumed its northwest course with a motion estimate of 310/9 kt.  
The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged.  Over
the next 72 hours or so, Erin should turn northward and move
through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and on the western
side of a mid-level anticyclone.  Later in the forecast period, an
approaching mid-level trough should cause Erin to accelerate
northeastward over the northern Atlantic.

The model guidance and low-level water vapor imagery suggests that
the dry air incursion into Erin is probably temporary.  However,
given the degraded cloud pattern and the less conducive shear over
the system, not much additional strengthening is likely.  In any
event since the system will remain over warm waters for at least
the next 72 hours, Erin will likely retain major hurricane status
through the middle of the week.  The official intensity forecast is
at the high end of the model guidance.
  
Erin's continued expanding wind field will result in rough ocean
conditions over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted
that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in
the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk
of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field
of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind
field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Bands of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of Hispaniola
this evening, and through Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the
southeast Bahamas, and the easternmost central Bahamas.  Flash and
urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas through this evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 24.0N  71.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  19/0600Z 24.9N  71.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 26.5N  72.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  20/0600Z 28.4N  73.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  20/1800Z 30.5N  73.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
60H  21/0600Z 32.7N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
72H  21/1800Z 34.8N  71.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  22/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 41.0N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

9916-Bart

最新947.5

ygsj24

000
WTNT35 KNHC 182354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

...CENTER OF ERIN PASSING EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeast Bahamas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda should monitor
the progress of Erin.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located
near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 71.5 West. Erin is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north is
forecast on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the core of Erin is
expected to pass to the east of the southeastern and central
Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the east
coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (210 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Erin is likely to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230
miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Outer bands of Erin will produce localized areas of heavy
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola this evening and through
Tuesday for the Turks and Caicos, the southeast Bahamas, and the
easternmost central Bahamas.  Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, are forecast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected through this evening
across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the central
Bahamas tonight through Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning
late Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents

STORM SURGE:  Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore
winds in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas.  
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

hei

留個SAR 底吧
1030z 仍然有120節的


現在就要看看

ygsj24

624
WTNT45 KNHC 190234
TCDAT5

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Erin has weakened some since the last advisory. Multiple microwave
overpasses show that the convection has eroded on the northwestern
side and that the mid-level center is displaced to the southeast
of the low-level center by northwesterly shear. Reports from NOAA
and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
central pressure has risen to near 949 mb, and that flight-level
winds at 8000 and 10000 ft are in the 105-115 kt range.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt for this advisory, and this
could be a bit generous.  It should be noted that the wind field
has become very spread out, with flight-level winds of hurricane
force noted by the two aircraft more than 100 n mi from the center.

Erin has slowed its forward speed with the initial motion now 320/7
kt. The overall track reasoning remains unchanged, with Erin
expected to turn northward during the next day or two into a break
in the subtropical ridge, followed by recurvature into the
westerlies with some acceleration thereafter.  However, there is
some spread in the track guidance in both direction and speed.  The
UKMET and ECMWF are slower and on the left side of the guidance
envelope, while the GFS and Canadian are on the right side of the
guidance and faster. The new forecast track is similar in direction
to the previous track, but it is going to be slower than the
previous track in deference to the ECMWF/UKMET and the consensus
models.

The dynamical model guidance suggests that the current shear should
diminish in 18-24 h, and as that happens the upper-level winds
become divergent over the hurricane. However, due to the current
poor organization, it is unclear whether Erin will be able to take
advantage of the more favorable environment. The intensity forecast
first calls for some additional weakening due to the ongoing
shear. After that, it calls for modest re-intensification as the
upper-level winds become more favorable.  Once Erin has recurved
into the westerlies, there should be substantial weakening due to
another round of shear and the onset of extratropical transition.

Erin's expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions
over much of the western Atlantic. It should be noted that the 34-
and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and
graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those
winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field of Erin
is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used
to derive the wind speed probability product.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected into Wednesday for portions of the
southeastern Bahamas. Flash and urban flooding are possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos
Islands and in the southeast Bahamas for a few more hours.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in portions of the central Bahamas
tonight through Tuesday.

3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

4. Tropical storm conditions and coastal flooding are possible in
the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday where
Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Watches are in effect.  Interests in
Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are
possible beginning on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 24.4N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  19/1200Z 25.4N  72.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
24H  20/0000Z 27.1N  73.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  20/1200Z 29.2N  73.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  21/0000Z 31.4N  73.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
60H  21/1200Z 33.5N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  22/0000Z 35.4N  70.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  23/0000Z 38.5N  62.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 41.1N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹越男  签发：张 玲  2025 年 08 月 19 日 10 时
“埃林”向西北方向移动

时        间:   19日08时（北京时，下同）

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “埃林”，ERIN

中心位置:    西经71.5度，北纬24.1度

强度等级:    四级飓风

最大风力:    17级，59米/秒，相当于我国的超强台风级

中心气压:    947百帕

参考位置:    距离百慕大西南方向约1120公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃林”强度变化不大

预报结论:   “埃林”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度维持。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年8月19日08时00分）