中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie, located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
expected during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Gibbs/Blake

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Near the Southeastern U.S.:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Florida
Peninsula eastward to the adjacent waters of the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean are associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form in this region over the weekend while the
system drifts northward or northeastward.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and
across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on
Saturday.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions are
expected to only be marginally conducive for development of this
system as it moves to the west-northwest, well off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure is likely to form near the southeastern
U.S. coast during the next couple of days and then move westward
across Florida into the northeastern Gulf by Tuesday.  Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system
during the middle to late part of next week while it moves westward
over the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.  
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through mid to late next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the southeastern United States, northwestern
Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters.  This system is forecast to
move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the
northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday.  Environmental conditions could
support some gradual development of this system during the middle to
latter part of this week while it moves westward over the
northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding
over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through
the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located offshore the Atlantic coast of
northern Florida is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent
Atlantic waters.  This system is forecast to move westward across
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by
late Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to
support some gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and
north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part
of this week.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could
produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the
north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated
with a tropical wave is located well southwest of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is
possible late this weekend through early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Gibbs/Bucci

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave interacting with a broad area of low pressure is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms more than 800 miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could
become marginally conducive for gradual development late this
weekend through early next week as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward around 10 mph. By the middle of next week,
environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

1. Well Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated
with a tropical wave is located well southwest of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph. By the early to middle part of next week,
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Jelsema