LOW - 关岛东南93W - 7.5N 151.7E - 逐渐西行，数值支持发展 - JMA:LPA

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PAGASA 00Z已经认定LPA，并认为其有中等可能性在未来24小时内发展为热带低压

As of 8:00 AM today, 04 May 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 05a) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a "MEDIUM" potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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GFS 00Z有所调弱，巅峰约992百帕

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ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZMAY2026//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
7.5N 151.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 150.9E, APPROXIMATELY 67 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO FORMATIVE BANDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 032316Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WEAK,
CLOSED LLCC CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK, WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES TO THE NORTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (2930 C). BOTH GEFS AND ECENS DEPICT 93W TRACKING
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE LAGGING BEHIND, INDICATING A SLOWER PACE OF
CONSOLIDATION AND PRIMARILY SUPPORTING A LATER WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL DEPICTING 93W
REACHING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

eoj329

EC IFS和FNV3的00時系集預報，轉向分歧點又重回到130°E-135°E之間。

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JMA今天下午予想天气图预报+24h LPA，+48h升格TD

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ECMWF 00Z系集

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FNV3 1000成员依然反应强烈

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JMA 06Z认定LPA

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 07N 150E WEST SLOWLY.

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As of 2:00 PM today, 04 May 2026, a Low Pressure area (LPA 05a) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is "UNLIKELY" to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Meanwhile, another Low Pressure area (LPA 05b) is being monitored outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It has a "MEDIUM" potential to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
All are advised to monitor updates from DOST-PAGASA.

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GFS 06Z进一步调弱，巅峰约997百帕