斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 09:51

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-5 12:00 编辑

WTPS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041121ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.8S 171.8E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S 171.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.7S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.4S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.1S 173.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.3S 174.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.9S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.3S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.0S 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 171.9E.
05APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
460 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z AND 060300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 041130).//
NNNN

WDPS32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 13.8S 171.8E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 460 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC VORTEX WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER
PRIMARILY ON THE EASTERN SIDE. LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS ARE VISIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS ALMOST COMPLETELY OBSCURED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AS WELL
AS A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED CENTER LOCATION. OWING TO A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND WIND SPEED DATA, THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK
FIXES AND A 042141 METOP-B ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A SMALL SWATH OF
30 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER POSITION. THAT SAID, THE ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD EXPOSED IN MUCH EARLIER DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY COULD BE A BIT HIGHER. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS
ANALYZED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C), AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
PHFO: T2.5 - 35 KTS
CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 050000Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 10-15 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P HAS TRACKED SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE RELATIVELY WEAK
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST AT A LEISURELY PACE UNDER THE WEAK STEERING
FLOW THROUGH TAU 36, AT WHICH TIME A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT AND CAUSES IT TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
STEADY INTENSITY INCREASE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, FURTHER
ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 36 FROM A JET
STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, IS FORECAST
THROUGH ABOUT TAU 60. TC 31P IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 85-90 KTS NEAR
TAU 60, AFTER WHICH AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING
PHASE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND TAU 120 UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE JET STREAK PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, HOWEVER, THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 45 NM AT TAU 12 STEADILY EXPANDS TO AROUND
400 NM BY TAU 120. NAVGEM AND GFS DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONSTITUTE
THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS AND HAVE BEEN EXCLUDED FROM THE
CROSS-TRACK MEASUREMENTS. ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT IS SIMILARLY
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SLOW SPEED OF ADVANCE
AND WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS IS REFLECTED IN THE
GUIDANCE TRACKS AS A SLIGHT MEANDERING CENTERED ABOUT A MEAN
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION, WHICH IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF EXPANDING
CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE TES1 CONSENSUS, WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING AND RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION AIDS (COAMPS-TC AND RIDE) AND HAFS-A, WHICH SUGGEST
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 105-110 KTS. THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY GROUPED, WITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 80-90 KTS. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-5 15:40

WTPS11 NFFN 050800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A03 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 050737 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 172.3E
AT 050600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH BANDS
TRYING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 400HPA. SYSTEM LIES
IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TD11F LIES IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT SHEAR IS
INCREASING TO HIGH IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.0.
PT= 2.0 WHILE MET IS NOT AVAILABLE. FT BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT IN A
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 15.0S 172.7E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 15.6S 173.2E MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 16.3S 173.9E MOV SE AT 09KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 17.4S 174.6E MOV SSE AT 11KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051400UTC.

Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 am April 5	tropical low	14.4S	172.3E	95
+6hr	12 pm April 5	tropical low	14.7S	172.5E	30
+12hr	6 pm April 5	tropical low	15.0S	172.7E	55
+18hr	12 am April 6	1	15.3S	172.9E	85
+24hr	6 am April 6	1	15.6S	173.2E	110
+36hr	6 pm April 6	1	16.3S	173.9E	170
+48hr	6 am April 7	2	17.4S	174.6E	230
+60hr	6 pm April 7	2	18.7S	175.4E	320
+72hr	6 am April 8	2	20.1S	176.4E	405

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-5 20:40

Information Number 3 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards
Department, Port Vila at 6:00pm VUT Sunday 5 April 2026.

At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Low (TL) (997 hPa) was located at 14.6S 172.4E. The
Tropical Low is positioned at the center of square letter M, number 5 (M, 5) of the
Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 460 KM east of the Maewo group.
The system is slow moving in the south southeasterly direction at the speed of 17 KM/HR in
the past 12hours. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical cyclone within
the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                      Position                Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 5 Apr)          14.9S, 172.6E          30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 6 Apr)          15.2S, 172.8E          30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 6 Apr)          15.5S, 173.1E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 6 Apr)          15.8S, 173.5E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 7 Apr)          16.6S, 174.3E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)          17.7S, 175.2E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 8 Apr)          19.1S, 176.2E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 8 Apr)          20.5S, 177.5E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)

Currently the Tropical Low pressure system does not pose any threat to the islands of Vanuatu.
However,isolated heavy rainfall with gustily winds may be experience over northern islands
within the next 48 hours.

Seas will become rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells expected as the system moves
closer to the north of Vanuatu in the next 24 to 48 hours.

A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu. Please refer to
Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

People over northern Vanuatu are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets to get the latest information on this system.

The next information on the system will be issued at 6:00am tomorrow or earlier if the situation
changes.

This bulletin is available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ and its facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/. You can also obtain this information by dialling VMGD'S
free toll number 116.

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm April 5	tropical low	14.6S	172.4E	95
+6hr	11 pm April 5	tropical low	14.9S	172.6E	120
+12hr	5 am April 6	tropical low	15.2S	172.8E	150
+18hr	11 am April 6	1	15.5S	173.1E	175
+24hr	5 pm April 6	1	15.8S	173.5E	205
+36hr	5 am April 7	1	16.6S	174.3E	265
+48hr	5 pm April 7	2	17.7S	175.2E	325
+60hr	5 am April 8	2	19.1S	176.2E	410
+72hr	5 pm April 8	2	20.5S	177.5E	500

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-5 20:50

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-5 21:50 编辑

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 051337 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 172.2E
AT 051200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE

                     AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 400HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
MOVING IN TO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, PT= 3.5,
MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. DVORAK
FT CONTRAINT BROKEN.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 172.7E MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.8S 173.6E MOV SE AT O6 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 18.1S 174.4E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.6S 175.4E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 052000UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 pm April 5	1	14.9S	172.2E	110
+6hr	6 pm April 5	1	15.5S	172.4E	140
+12hr	12 am April 6	2	15.9S	172.7E	165
+18hr	6 am April 6	2	16.3S	173.1E	195
+24hr	12 pm April 6	2	16.8S	173.6E	220
+36hr	12 am April 7	3	18.1S	174.4E	280
+48hr	12 pm April 7	3	19.6S	175.4E	345
+60hr	12 am April 8	3	21.4S	176.9E	430
+72hr	12 pm April 8	3	22.8S	177.9E	520

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 051342 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 992HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.9S 172.2E AT 051200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN E SEMICIRCLE

                     AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN W SEMICIRCLE

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC WITH PRIMARY BAND
WRAPPING ONTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP
TO 400HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS
MOVING IN TO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.7 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, PT= 3.5,
MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YEILDING T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. DVORAK
FT CONTRAINT BROKEN.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.9S 172.7E MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.8S 173.6E MOV SE AT O6 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 18.1S 174.4E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 19.6S 175.4E MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AT AROUND 052000UTC.

1996莎莉 · 发表于 2026-4-5 21:01

已命名Vaianu

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 00:30

WTPS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 172.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 172.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.8S 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.6S 175.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.4S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.0S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 29.1S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 172.6E.
05APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290
NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA)
WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 14.9S 172.4E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 290 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING, COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO), WITH A
NASCENT EYE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE MOST RECENT FRAMES IN THE
ANIMATION. A 051210Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALED WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL
BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN A WIDE ARC INTO A QUICKLY SEPARATING
INNER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
DEEP CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL CORE
REGION OF THE CDO, SURROUNDING THE EYE, AND ACCOMPANIED BY A ROBUST
INNER-CORE LIGHTNING BURST, A POTENTIAL INDICATOR OF NEAR-TERM
RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE GMI IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVAILABLE AT ANALYSIS
TIME, THOUGH IT IS ALREADY LIKELY TOO LOW BASED ON THE RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING SITUATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
FOR RI, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SSTS, HIGH OHC,
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF SAMOA.
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
PHFO: T3.5 - 55 KTS
NFFN: T3.0 - 45 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 57 KTS AT 051140Z
CIMSS AIDT: 43 KTS AT 051140Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 60 KTS AT 051300Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) IS FORECAST
TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY AFTER TAU 96 WILL THE
TRACK DEVIATE TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY, AS IT IS BOTH PULLED
SOUTHWARD INTO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND PUSHED SOUTH ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE REACHING ALL THE WAY TO
45S ALONG THE 160W LONGITUDE. REGARDING INTENSITY, TC 31P IS PRIMED
TO RI IN THE NEAR-TERM, UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY HOWEVER, IS FINITE, AND THE
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, SHEAR
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE, TO MORE THAN 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48, MORE THAN
50 KNOTS BY TAU 96 AND HIGHER STILL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM PASSES UNDER A POLAR FRONT JET STREAK AND
BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
SHEAR WILL ALSO USHER IN EXTREMELY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, HELPING TO
SQUASH TC 31P. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECAPITATED BY TAU 72 AND
SMOTHERED BY DRY AIR AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL STILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN
DOWN IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BAROCLINIC
FORCING WILL FURTHER SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS ETT.
MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH
NAVGEM THE ONLY OUTLIER AMONGST THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, DEPICTING A
TRACK FAR OUT TO THE EAST TOWARDS TONGA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE CONFINED TO A GRADUALLY EXPANDING ENVELOPE THAT
WIDENS TO 105NM BY TAU 72 AND 280NM BY TAU 120. THE LARGER ISSUE IS
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE AI MODELS (EC-AIFS, GDM
AND THE AI CONSENSUS) AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. AT TAU 72,
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS ABOUT 80NM, INCREASING TO 250NM BETWEEN THE
SLOW GFS AND FAST AI MODELS, BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN (MINUS NAVGEM) THROUGH TAU 72,
THEN ALONG THE TRACK LINE OF THE MEAN, BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER, HEDGED
TOWARDS THE AI CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NEARLY
EVERY RI AID IS TRIGGERED, INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 105-
130 KNOTS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PEAK OCCURRING NEAR TAU 36,
THEN A MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED CONSISTENT WITH THE RI
AIDS THROUGH TAU 36, THEN CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MEAN THEREAFTER,
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-6 04:45

WTPS11 NFFN 051800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A05 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 052002 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.1S 172.6E AT 051800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 04 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD
ORGANISATION WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS MOVING IN TO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON W EYE AND CMG
SURROUND THUS YIELDS DT=4.5, PT=4.0 MET=3.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS,
YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. DVORAK FT CONSTRAINT BROKEN.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 16.0S 173.2E MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 17.0S 174.1E MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 18.4S 175.1E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 20.0S 176.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060200UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm April 5	2	15.1S	172.6E	110
+6hr	12 am April 6	2	15.5S	172.9E	140
+12hr	6 am April 6	2	16.0S	173.2E	165
+18hr	12 pm April 6	2	16.4S	173.6E	195
+24hr	6 pm April 6	3	17.0S	174.1E	220
+36hr	6 am April 7	3	18.4S	175.1E	280
+48hr	6 pm April 7	3	20.0S	176.4E	345
+60hr	6 am April 8	3	21.6S	177.8E	430
+72hr	6 pm April 8	2	23.1S	179.0E	520

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 08:10

Information Number 4 on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards
Department, Port Vila at 6:57am VUT Monday 6 April 2026.

At 5:00am local time today, Tropical Cyclone VAIANU CAT 1 (990 hPa) was located at 15.2S 172.5E. The
Tropical Cyclone is positioned at the top center of square letter M, number 6 (M, 6) of the
Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map.  This is about 465 KM east of the Maewo group.
The system is slow moving in the southerly direction at the speed of 6 KM/HR in
the past 12hours. The potential for Tropical Cyclone VAIANU to move towards the Vanuatu group is low.

Gale force winds are expected at about 170 nautical mile from the centre of the cyclone with winds of
87 KM/HR (47 knots) with gusting to 105KM/HR (55 knots)

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                      Position                Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 6 Apr)          15.6S, 172.7E          40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 6 Apr)          16.0S, 173.1E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 6 Apr)          16.4S, 173.4E          50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 7 Apr)          17.0S, 173.8E          60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)          18.2S, 174.8E          60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 8 Apr)          19.6S, 175.9E          70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5pm, 8 Apr)          21.0S, 177.1E          80 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5am, 9 Apr)          22.3S, 178.3E          80 KTS (130 KM/HR)

Currently Tropical Cyclone VAIANU does not pose any threat to the islands of Vanuatu.
However,isolated heavy rainfall with gusty winds may be experience over parts of northern
and central islands.

Seas will become rough to very rough with heavy to phenomenal swells expected within
100 nautical mile from the centre of the system.

A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu. Please refer to
Separate Marine Warning Bulletin.

People over northern Vanuatu are advised to take precautions and listen to Radio Vanuatu and
other radio outlets to get the latest information on this system.

The next information on the system will be issued at 6:00pm this afternoon.

This bulletin is available on VMGD's website: https://www.vmgd.gov.vu/ and its facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/. You can also obtain this information by dialling VMGD'S
free toll number 116.

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am April 6	1	15.2S	172.5E	95
+6hr	11 am April 6	1	15.6S	172.7E	95
+12hr	5 pm April 6	2	16.0S	173.1E	110
+18hr	11 pm April 6	2	16.4S	173.4E	110
+24hr	5 am April 7	2	17.0S	173.8E	110
+36hr	5 pm April 7	2	18.2S	174.8E	110
+48hr	5 am April 8	3	19.6S	175.9E	130
+60hr	5 pm April 8	3	21.0S	177.1E	130
+72hr	5 am April 9	3	22.3S	178.3E	130

pocketbox · 发表于 2026-4-6 08:55

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-4-6 09:45 编辑

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 060139 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
15.6S 173.1E AT 060000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 55 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                     AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE LLCC AND ORGANIZATION
REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES
IN A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. CYCLONE
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP WITH W BAND YIELDS DT=4.0, PT=4.0
MET=3.0. FT BASED ON PT. THUS, YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 16.4S 173.7E MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.4S 174.5E MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 18.8S 175.4E MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 20.3S 176.7E MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060800UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am April 6	2	15.6S	173.1E	110
+6hr	6 am April 6	2	16.0S	173.4E	140
+12hr	12 pm April 6	2	16.4S	173.7E	165
+18hr	6 pm April 6	3	16.8S	174.1E	195
+24hr	12 am April 7	3	17.4S	174.5E	220
+36hr	12 pm April 7	3	18.8S	175.4E	280
+48hr	12 am April 8	3	20.3S	176.7E	345
+60hr	12 pm April 8	3	21.9S	178.0E	430
+72hr	12 am April 9	2	23.3S	179.1E	520

ygsj24 · 发表于 2026-4-6 09:53

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2026-4-6 12:00 编辑

WTPS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 15.7S 173.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 173.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.0S 174.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.7S 175.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 21.8S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.5S 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.5S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 32.0S 178.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 173.3E.
06APR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 971 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (MAILA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW 060300)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (VAIANU) WARNING NR
003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 15.7S 173.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 337 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 26 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A NEARLY
SYMMETRIC VORTEX WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT
CORE. DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT AROUND THE CORE AND WITHIN THE
BANDS ENTERING THE CORE IN THE PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
WHILE SOME DRIER AIR ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EVIDENT IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE
IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND MSI OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
FURTHER INDICATING THE IMPROVING SYMMETRY OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW A
042121Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A COMPACT INNER CORE WITH
IMPROVING WIND FIELD SYMMETRY AROUND THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
DATA AND ANIMATED MSI. THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED FROM 40
KTS TO 80 KTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY UNDERCUT BY THE DRY AIR BEGINNING
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBJECTIVE BEST
TRACK
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF SAMOA
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
PHFO: T4.5 - 77 KTS
CIMSS ADT: 77 KTS AT 060000Z
CIMSS AIDT: 76 KTS AT 060000Z
CIMSS D-PRINT: 81 KTS AT 060000Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
VWS: 5-10 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P (VAIANU) HAS TRACKED
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL BUILD DEEPER INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND BEGIN TO
STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF PUSHING FROM THE RIDGE AND
PULLING FROM THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND TAU 96 AND ACCELERATE THE SPEED OF ADVANCE. TC
31P IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
TO A PEAK OF 105 KTS AROUND TAU 24 AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO MORE
THAN 30 KTS BY TAU 60 AND MORE THAN 50 KTS BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES UNDER A POLAR FRONT JET STREAK, CAUSING TC 31P TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY A LARGE INJECTION OF DRY AIR. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE VICINITY OF THE JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND TAU 96 AND TC 31P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE JET AS A FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 120.
MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH
A FEW EXCEPTIONS: NAVGEM AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM BASED) MAKE UP THE
FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, WHILE THE UKMET MAKES AN EARLY
TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE ONLY WESTERN OUTLIER. EXCLUDING THOSE
SOLUTIONS, THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 36 IS JUST 40 NM.
VARIABILITY IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE ACROSS THE MAIN GROUPING IS
AROUND 190 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE TES1 CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) AIDS
AND NON-RI AIDS. THE RI AIDS SUGGEST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF AROUND 115-125 KTS AT TAU 36 WHILE THE NON-RI AIDS ARE
GROUPED NEAR 90-105 KTS. AFTER TAU 36, MODELS AGREE ON STEADY
WEAKENING. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

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