|
|
本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2026-3-6 23:25 编辑
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.0S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.3S 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.1S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.2S 102.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 112.5E.
06MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z AND 071500Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS31 PGTW 061500
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (TWENTYSIX) WARNING
- NR 002//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 15.9S 112.9E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 390 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 05 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
- PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL
- CYCLONE (TC) 26S AS IT IS BEGINNING TO YET AGAIN ACCELERATE
- WESTWARD. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED TRANSLATIONAL SPEEDS, AS
- THE SYSTEM INTERACTED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S, IT
- IS NOW AGAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE-SCALE, DEEP-LAYER
- SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. OVER THE LAST
- FEW HOURS, TC 26S MANAGED TO ALIGN VERTICALLY AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT
- CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS NOW HEAVILY SHEARED BY THE 25-30 KT
- EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OUTFLOW REMAINS MODERATE TO STRONG,
- PRIMARILY IN THE WESTWARD DIRECTION, WITH AN ADDITIONAL POLEWARD
- COMPONENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE AND WARM
- (29-30 C), WHILE ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS PATCHY AREAS
- OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTERING THE CORE OF THE VORTEX PRIMARILY FROM THE
- SOUTHEAST. OVERALL THE RIVALING CHARACTERISTICS RESULT IN AN OVERALL
- MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
- THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 061047Z RCM-3 SAR PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
- 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DATA FROM THE SAME
- SAR PASS, CORROBORATED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
- LISTED BELOW.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 061047Z RCM-3 SAR PASS
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
- CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS ADT: 35 KTS AT 061130Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 35 KTS AT 061130Z
- CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 060912Z
- CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 061300Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 25-30 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PRIMARY WITHIN THE
- SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
- INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 26S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
- THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST
- THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM IS BATTLING
- HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND CONTINUOUS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, ITS ABILITY
- TO MAINTAIN VERTICAL STRUCTURE AND UTILIZE WARM SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WAY WILL ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OF
- AROUND 35 KTS UNTIL TAU 48. AROUND THAT TIME, AND AS THE SYSTEM
- MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRANSIT OVER COOLER (25-26
- C) SEAS AND ENCOUNTER MORE DRY AIR CONTRIBUTING TO THE EROSION OF
- ITS VORTEX AND RESULTING IN OVERALL WEAKENING. TC 26S IS FORECAST
- TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY OR PRIOR TO TAU 72.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
- AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
- AGREEING ON THE STEERING PATTERN, AS WITNESSED BY A CROSS-TRACK
- SPREAD OF 50 NM AT TAU 24, EXPANDING ONLY TO ABOUT 100 NM BY THE
- END OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION IS
- LAID WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AS IT CARRIES A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT
- THE CURRENT WARNING PERIOD. WHILE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AMONG THE
- CONSENSUS MEMBERS IS NO LARGER THAN 20 KTS, THE PROGRESSION VARIES
- THROUGHOUT THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMES AND BEYOND. STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
- MODELS DEPICT CONTINUOUS WEAKENING AND FULL DISSIPATION AS SOON AS TAU
- 24. NAVGEM-DRIVEN COAMPS-TC AND DETERMINISTIC GFS INDICATE
- SLIGHT WEAKENING OR STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE INITIAL 48-60 HOURS,
- FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MEANWHILE, HAFS AND GFS-DRIVEN
- COAMPS-TC PROJECT SLIGHT INITIAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH TC 26S
- POTENTIALLY REACHING 40-45 KTS WITHIN 24-36 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY
- WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AFTERWARDS. OVERALL, THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
- AND DISSIPATION TIMELINE WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
- DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND VWS INTENSITY, WHICH ALL WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON
- HOW FAR SOUTH TC 26S WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN TAUS 48-72. JTWC OFFICIAL
- INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ASSESSED CLOSE TO THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS
- GUIDANCE AT EACH OF THE FORECASTED TAUS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
- INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
|
本帖子中包含更多资源
您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有账号？立即注册
×
|
楼主: Ragasa
发表于 2026-3-5 15:00
