迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第11号“霍拉西奥”(22S.Horacio)

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WTXS21 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190100ZFEB26//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 190100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 76.2E TO 17.0S 72.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 32 TO 38 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.9S 76.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 200600Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTH OF THE (LLCC) AT
THAT TIME, WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS),
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, A POCKET OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING
THE LLCC, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) THAT HAS DECREASED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS,
DEVELOPMENT IS ASSESSED TO BE IMMINENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON 97S
CONTINUING TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 32 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190100).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210100Z.
//
NNNN

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200051FEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 76.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 76.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 15.2S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 15.7S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 16.0S 72.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.3S 71.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 17.8S 67.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 20.7S 63.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 25.1S 63.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 75.9E.
20FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z AND 210300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 200100).
//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 200300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO)
   
4. WARNING NR 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.5S 76.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 490 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
    
18. OBSCURED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
    
19. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
    
20. CIRCULATION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE
    
21. CONTINUED TO COOL WITHIN THE PAST 6 HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION
    
22. INTENSIFIES AND BEGINS TO EXPAND INTO UPSHEAR QUADRANTS AS THE
    
23. SHEAR WEAKENS. MODERATE OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT POLEWARD AND WESTWARD.
    
24. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    
25. EARLIER 192006Z AMSR2 PASS AND AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
    
26. OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 191930Z
    
27. OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND
    
28. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 191930Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT SCATTEROMETER
    
31. DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
34. RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
38.    FMEE: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
39.    CIMSS D-MINT: 28 KTS AT 192006Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 200000Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
55. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
    
58. SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
    
59. POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
    
60. GENERALLY FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND WITH A SYMMETRIC
    
61. INNER CORE NOT YET FORMED, THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GRADUAL
    
62. INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THAT PERIOD. DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR
    
63. PERIOD, AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
    
64. VERTICAL SHEAR TO 15-25 KTS, SLOWING THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
    
65. NUMERICAL MODELS CURRENTLY DISAGREE ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION
    
66. OF THIS SHEAR, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SHEAR
    
67. THAN GFS-BASED MODELS, AND ACCORDINGLY SHOWS MORE DISRUPTION TO THE
    
68. STORM'S INNER CORE STRUCTURE. THE JTWC FORECAST ASSUMES SHEAR WILL
    
69. BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AT A
    
70. CLIMATOLOGICAL PACE. AS 22S ROUNDS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
    
71. RIDGE AT 72 TO 96 HOURS AND APPROACHES A JET STREAK TO ITS SOUTH,
    
72. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FOR A BRIEF PERIOD,
    
73. SIMULTANEOUS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AS A
    
74. RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY DURING THE
    
75. 72 TO 96 HOUR PERIOD, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KTS AT TAU 96.
    
76. THEREAFTER, DUE TO ITS FORECASTED PROXIMITY TO THE JET AND DRY AIR
    
77. ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WESTERN SIDE, TC 22S IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN
    
78. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A WEAKENING TREND BY TAU 120.  
    
79. 
    
80. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE IS
    
81. FAIRLY TIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS, WITH GFS FARTHEST NORTH AND ECMWF
    
82. ENSEMBLE FARTHEST SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE
    
83. TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FIRST 72
    
84. HOURS. AFTER TAU 72 THE TRACK IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
    
85. ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
    
86. CIRCULATION WILL RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
    
87. INDIAN OCEAN, AND THE FORECASTED JET INTERACTION. REGARDING THE
    
88. INTENSITY GUIDANCE, THE MAJORITY OF MODELS AGREE ON STEADY
    
89. INTENSIFICATION WITH SOME RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATORS,
    
90. PRIMARILY AFTER TAU 48. HAFS-A IS THE STRONGEST AID WITH A MAXIMUM
    
91. INTENSITY OF 125 KTS AROUND TAU 96. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    
92. CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK OF 100 KTS AT 96
    
93. HOURS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
    
94. INHERITING SOME UNCERTAINTY FROM TRACK GUIDANCE FACTORS AND MODEL
    
95. DISAGREEMENT ON SHEAR MAGNITUDE DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD.
    
96. 
    
97. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
98.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
99.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
100.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
101.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
102. NNNN

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ygsj24 发表于 2026-2-20 10:16
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S ( ...

抛物线转向路径，对罗德里格斯岛的影响程度是关注的重点

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WTIO30 FMEE 200715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/11/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/21 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/21 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/22 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/22 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/23 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/24 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 345 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/25 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 455 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVATURE WITHIN THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CLEARLY INCREASED, WITH THE BUILDING OF A CURVED BAND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CLOUD TOPS REMAIN PARTICULARLY COLD.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES ARE CLOSE TO 2.5/3.0. IN ADDITION,  0400Z
AND 0436Z ASCAT B AND C PASSES SHOW THE PRESENCE OF MAXIMUM WINDS
CLOSE TO 34KT NEAR A CONSOLIDATING CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY, IT WAS
ESTIMATED THAT THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE COULD BE REACHED AT
06Z, AND THE SYSTEM WAS THEREFORE NAMED HORACIO.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EVOLUTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND LATER
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. HORACIO IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BEING CAUGHT UP BY THE WESTERLY MID
LATITUDES FLOW. THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCES REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL,
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHERN TURN. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE TO
THE AI ENSEMBLES MEANS.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE DEVELOPMENT OF HORACIO COULD BE
LIMITED AT FIRST BY THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A
STILL BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER, FROM FRIDAY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE: WITH LOW SHEAR,
SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A MARKED OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY
SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS
SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MAY BE FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

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全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：钟晖子、刘涛  签发：张 玲  2026 年 02 月 20 日 18 时
“霍拉西奥”在西南印度洋生成

时  间: 2月20日14时（北京时，下同）

海  域: 西南印度洋

命  名: “霍拉西奥”，HORACIO

中心位置: 南纬15.1度，东经76.5度

强度等级: 热带风暴

最大风力: 8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压: 996百帕

参考位置: 距离西南印度洋法属留尼旺东北方向约2315公里

变化过程: “霍拉西奥”于今天下午在西南印度洋生成

预报结论: “霍拉西奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。



图1  卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2026年2月20日14时00分）

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 201248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/11/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 75.8 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2026/02/21 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2026/02/22 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/23 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 295 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/25 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CURVED BAND LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PART
HAS DISAPPEARED, GIVING WAY TO SEVERAL SMALLER ONES IN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT STILL WITH COLD TOPS. MICROWAVE PASSES
(0655Z GPM AND 0820Z GCOM-W) AND SUPPLEMENTARY ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT
THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS LARGE AND POORLY DEFINED. GCOM-W PASS
WIND ESTIMATES DO NOT CLEARLY SHOW THE PRESENCE OF GALE FORCE WITHIN
THE CIRCULATION. PENDING MORE RELIABLE DATA, INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED
AT 35KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. AT LONGER RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS EVOLUTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND LATER WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS RIDGE. HORACIO IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BEING CAUGHT UP BY THE WESTERLY MID LATITUDES FLOW.
THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCES REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL, EVEN THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK MOTION AND THE
INITIAL POSITION. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE AI ENSEMBLES MEANS.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE DEVELOPMENT OF HORACIO COULD BE
LIMITED AT FIRST BY THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A
STILL BROAD INNER CORE. HOWEVER, FROM FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE: WITH LOW SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT
OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
A MARKED OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY SMALL. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY MONDAY AT
THE LATEST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOSE
ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
SCENARIO OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES.
HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MAY BE
FASTER OR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 75.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 75.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 15.9S 74.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 16.1S 73.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 16.5S 71.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.3S 69.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 19.7S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 22.9S 64.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 27.9S 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 75.3E.
20FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
210300Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 201500
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING
   
4. NR 002//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.4S 75.6E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
18. (TC) 22S (HORACIO) WITH ITS FULLY OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP
    
20. CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND WRAPPING INTO THE CORE OF THE
    
21. LLCC. DRY AIR IS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY
    
22. EVIDENT THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, BUT TC 22S HAS SO FAR
    
23. BEEN ABLE TO COCOON ITSELF WITHIN AN AREA OF MOIST AIR AVAILABLE
    
24. THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. AS SUCH, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
    
25. CONDITIONS ARE PREDOMINANTLY FAVORABLE AND ARE ADDITIONALLY
    
26. CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STRONG
    
27. POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
    
28. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
    
29. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 200818Z GCOMW1 AMSR2 PASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
    
30. AGENCY POSITION FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ALSO
    
31. ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED
    
32. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE INDICATED BY THE AGENCY DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
    
33. ESTIMATES LISTED BELOW.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 200626Z OCEANSAT-3 OSCAT PASS
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
38. SOUTHEAST
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 201200Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 44 KTS AT 201200Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 30 KTS AT 200820Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 42 KTS AT 201230Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 22S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
    
66. WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY, STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW
    
67. THROUGHOUT THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PROMINENT STR CENTERED TO
    
68. THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY
    
69. CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 12
    
70. AND TAU 48, AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
    
71. PROJECTED TO INCREASE THE VWS TO 15-25 KTS, THEREBY POTENTIALLY
    
72. INHIBITING A MORE RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. AS TC HORACIO
    
73. APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE STR, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
    
74. TEMPORARILY DECREASE ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY
    
75. OF 100-105 KTS AROUND TAU 96. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
    
76. INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME
    
77. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WILL BE INITIATED. ETT IS EXPECTED
    
78. TO COMPLETE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
    
79. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96 WILL
    
80. RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
    
81. 
    
82. MODEL DISCUSSION: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    
83. INTER-MODEL DISCREPANCY EXISTS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION
    
84. OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR EVENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTING A
    
85. SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ROBUST SHEAR PROFILE THAN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE.
    
86. NUMERICAL MODEL INTENSITY PREDICTION GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
    
87. ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT TREND, WITH SEVERAL MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE
    
88. POTENTIAL FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) EVENT. HAFS-A REPRESENTS
    
89. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION, FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEARLY
    
90. 120 KTS AROUND TAU 84. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE MULTI-
    
91. MODEL CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH
    
92. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. SHORT-TERM TRACK PREDICTION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
    
93. CONFIDENCE, AS REFLECTED BY A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 75 NM AT TAU
    
94. 72. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OPENS UP AFTERWARDS, AS MODELS SLIGHTLY
    
95. DISAGREE ON THE TRANSLATION SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AROUND THE AXIS OF THE
    
96. RIDGE. AS SUCH, THE LONG-TERM TRACK FORECAST IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
97. CONFIDENCE, AS WITNESSED BY THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD OF NEARLY 300 NM AT
    
98. TAU 96.
    
99. 
    
100. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
     
101.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
     
102.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
     
103.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
     
104.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
     
105. NNNN

复制代码

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 201845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/11/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/20 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 74.9 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/21 06 UTC: 15.9 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2026/02/21 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/02/22 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/22 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 240 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/23 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 260 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2026/02/23 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/24 18 UTC: 24.5 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 425 SW: 390 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/25 18 UTC: 28.3 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 335 SE: 435 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY. IT HAS
TAKEN ON A SHEARING APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CENTER UNDER THE EFFECT OF MODERATE EASTERLY WIND
SHEAR. THE 1707Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT THE TRACK HAS TAKEN A
WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH A STILL SLIGHTLY STRETCHED CENTER. THE
ASCAT MEASURES WIND FORCES OF 35-40KT BUT BELOW THE CONVECTION.
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ESTIMATES A T OF 2.5, WHILE THE CI REMAINS AT
3.0. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES, AS DO THE MODELS.
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS PRESENT UNDER THE
CONVECTION, RATHER THAN DOWNGRADING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WE ARE
MAINTAINING THE VALUE OF 35KT WITH A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS,
AS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. AT LONGER RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ITS EVOLUTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND LATER WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. HORACIO IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BEING CAUGHT UP BY THE WESTERLY MID LATITUDES
FLOW. THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCES REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL, EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK MOTION AND THE
INITIAL POSITION. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE AI ENSEMBLES MEANS.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, HORACIO'S DEVELOPMENT COULD
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY THE PRESENCE OF A
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STILL BROAD INNER CORE. HOWEVER, FROM
THIS WEEK-END, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE:
WITH LOW SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND GOOD DIVERGENCE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A MARKED OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY
SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS
SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IT MAY BE FASTER OR SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- POSSIBLE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY SHOWERS LIKELY WITH 50 MM/24 HOURS.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS POSSIBLE.=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 75.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 75.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 16.1S 73.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 16.4S 72.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 17.0S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.8S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 20.6S 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 24.2S 64.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 28.1S 66.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 74.9E.
20FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
536 NM SOUTH鈥怱OUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201800Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 202100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HORACIO) WARNING
   
4. NR 003//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 15.6S 75.3E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 536 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
18. (TC) 22S (HORACIO) WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
    
19. CENTER (LLCC) AND CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 201709Z
    
20. METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED 20-25 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHERN
    
21. SEMICIRCLE AND 30-35 KNOT WINDS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE
    
22. SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT ALSO SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS
    
23. STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED WITH A BROAD REGION OF WEAK WINDS NEAR THE
    
24. CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
    
25. THE WIND MINIMUM REGION OF THE ASCAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
    
26. KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SAME ASCAT PASS.
    
27. AGENCY DVORAK AND CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE A HIGHER INTENSITY,
    
28. BUT ARE ANALYZED TO BE OVERESTIMATING. THE DPRINT ESTIMATE OF 31 KTS
    
29. APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE.
    
30. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 22S IS IN A FAVORABLE
    
31. ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS)
    
32. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 201709Z METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
35. 
    
36. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE
    
37. SOUTHEAST
    
38. 
    
39. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
40.    PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
43.    FIMP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 201800Z
    
45.    CIMSS AIDT: 42 KTS AT 201800Z
    
46.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 201800Z
    
47. 
    
48. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
49.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
50.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
51.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
52. 
    
53. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
54.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
57. 
    
58. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
59. 
    
60. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DROPPED
    
61. TO 35 KTS, CAUSING THE NEAR-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST TO BE LOWER.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD,
    
64. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST
    
65. THROUGH TAU 72. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
    
66. SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. AROUND TAU 96, 22S
    
67. WILL INITIATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS IT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHWESTERN
    
68. PERIPHERY OF THE STR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
    
69. NEAR TAU 120 AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.
    
70. TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
    
71. OUTSIDE THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 22S IS
    
72. FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE TO THE
    
73. PERSISTENCE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NEAR TAU 48, POLEWARD
    
74. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH AN
    
75. INCOMING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A POTENTIALLY
    
76. RAPID RATE OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,
    
77. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE
    
78. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE, CAUSING 22S TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
    
79. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
80. 
    
81. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER
    
82. AGREEMENT THIS MODEL RUN, WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 100 NM
    
83. AT TAU 72 AND 200 NM AT TAU 120. THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
    
84. MEAN HAS BECOME THE EASTERNMOST MODEL WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE
    
85. MEAN IS THE WESTERNMOST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE
    
86. TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72
    
87. AND MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY
    
88. AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72 FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.
    
89. PEAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 110 KTS (HAFS-A) AND 80 KTS (GFS).
    
90. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS WITH
    
91. OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
    
92. 
    
93. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
94.    TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
    
95.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
96.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
97.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
98. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 210049
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/11/20252026
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (HORACIO)

2.A POSITION 2026/02/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 74.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 85 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/21 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2026/02/22 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 285 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/22 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 285 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/02/23 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.4 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 405 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2026/02/26 00 UTC: 29.3 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
PT=3.0+ CI=3.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE. IT IS
STILL SUBJECT TO MODERATE EASTWARD WIND SHEAR, ACCORDING TO CIMSS
ANALYSES, WHICH IS SHIFTING CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM GPM AT 2030Z AND GCOM AT 2050Z HAVE MADE IT
POSSIBLE TO CORRECTLY LOCATE THE CENTER. THEY SHOW A RING AT 37 GHZ
BUT NOT AT 89 GHZ, CONFIRMING THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE. IT
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT A SLOW SPEED, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPOSING
IT TO SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR, SLOWING ITS DEVELOPMENT.
DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GIVES A T OF 3.0+, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. THE WIND INTENSITY IS 40KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST, HORACIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. AT LONGER RANGE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ITS EVOLUTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND LATER WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. HORACIO IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE BEING CAUGHT UP BY THE WESTERLY MID LATITUDES
FLOW. THE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCES REMAINS FAIRLY SMALL, EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK MOTION AND THE
INITIAL POSITION. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS CLOSE
TO THE AI ENSEMBLES MEANS AND THE DETERMINISTIC IFS MODEL.

REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, HORACIO'S DEVELOPMENT COULD
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY THE PRESENCE OF A
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STILL BROAD INNER CORE. HOWEVER
HOWEVER, IT COULD REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY TONIGHT. FROM
THIS WEEK-END AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME VERY FAVORABLE. A MARKED OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AS THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BE RELATIVELY
SMALL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE BY MONDAY AT THE LATEST. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, HORACIO WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A SCENARIO OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AS
SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GUIDANCES. HOWEVER, THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN : DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FASTER IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST AND ESCAPES THE SHEAR EARLIER, AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS
MODEL.

IMPACTS SUR LES TERRES HABITEES :

RODRIGUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY :
- POSSIBLE GALE-FORCE WINDS.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH TOTAL RAINFALL UP TO 50 MM/24 HOURS.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METERS POSSIBLE.